Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, July 1st

Racing in Melbourne returns to Caulfield this weekend with a nine-race card to look forward to. The track is currently rated a Soft 5 with the rail out 7 meters for the entire circuit. With fine weather forecast for Saturday I'd expect an upgrade to a Good 4.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below!

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Caulfield Racing Tips for Saturday, 1st of July

Race 1

Really deep two-year-old race to kick things off here, and I could genuinely make a case for the majority of this field. I think LONE EAGLE is the best horse in the field and with even luck probably should be winning this. On debut he bumped into a smart one in Cliff's Edge, and his last start was an absolute horror watch when never clear during the final 500m of the race. From barrier 9 he really should have no traffic problems at all so he goes on top at $2.70. I do think there are a few at decent odds in this that are worth including. RIVER JEWEL will bounce straight to the front from barrier 5 and with the rail out 7m at Caulfield that is always a good position to be in. The horse that ran 2nd to River Jewel last start previously ran 2nd to Royal Symphony who came out and dominated last weekend, so I think the form around River Jewel is strong enough. $12 is a good each way bet. Lindsay Park's other runner OLYMPIC LAD is also good value after a luckless debut. William sticks with him and I think the stable have a decent opinion of this horse. He went back from the wide barrier on debut and ran into traffic the whole way home, but from gate 2 he can settle closer to the speed, and the extra trip is suitable. $12 available and he looks the best value. Happy to take on ROYAL PHOENIX with the extra weight and NISTAAN first up from a long spell. EVIL CRY has to be included. I'll be backing Lone Eagle and Olympic Lad, but definitely having something on River Jewel to cover my bets.

TIP: Lone Eagle / Olympic Lad EW

Race 2

KIWIA is a clear top pick here for me with the 2.5kg weight turnaround on ROYAL ORDER from a 0.2L defeat last start at Flemington. I'd expect both to get back in the field, although Royal Order does draw a gate for the first time in its career and has the blinkers going on first time, so there's a chance we may see him ridden a touch closer. I'd be surprised if the winner came from outside of those two, however there does look a real lack of pace in the race which isn't ideal for their racing pattern. WINDBERN looks the likely leader from the wide gate and is definitely worth including at big odds, along with ALL OUT OF LOVE, GUANGZHOU, and ATLANTIC FOX.

Tip: Kiwia

Race 3

Tough race with not a lot standing out on paper. I've got COSMIC LIGHTS on top here with the booking of Craig Williams and the good barrier draw which should allow him to get the run of the race, probably in the box seat. His last couple of starts have been sound - two runs back he crossed the line alongside COLDSTONE who actually gets in 1.5kg better off at the weights today, however Cosmic Lights was held up until the 200m mark that day. Despite the weight swing in Coldstone's favour, I feel like he's had his chances to win in recent starts and with 61kg on his back I'd prefer to back others. Having said that, he draws barrier 1, gets Beau Mertens on board and drops in grade so this is a winnable race for him. Big watch on HARDINGTON who makes his Australian debut. He produced his best at the end of his last campaign in the UK, when recording two good victories over 2100m. He's been gelded since then and comes into this first up for 253 days, which is my main concern given he's never placed from three runs when first up from a spell. It's a winnable race but I'd prefer to watch him go around here. I do think WALLOON REGION can run a bit of a race here at $21. He was close up last start in a decent form race, and with the rise in grade he drops from 60kg to 53kg. Include him in exotics. The other I would include in exotics is CAN'T REFUSE at $126/$31. He's done absolutely nothing in his first two runs back, but he rarely does. His third up form, however, is much better, with two wins and a placing from three starts. ANNAMAN has his first start for Darren Weir which is often a winning formula so don't discount. Tough race so I'll take the $5.50/$2.20 eachway for Cosmic Lights.

TIP: Cosmic Lights EW

Race 4

CLIPPER brings some winning form from Sydney but I'm keen to take her on here on the basis that every race she's contested in Sydney has been a Highway Handicap and I'm not certain that form will line up here. The money has come for her and she's into $4.40 at best, and that's a price I'm willing to take her on at. She'll get the run of the race from barrier 2 but the query over the strength of the form is enough for me to look elsewhere. I'm pretty keen on a couple at decent odds here. The first is INVICTUM DOMINA which I've got as my top pick and I think the $9 on offer is a tremendous price. She led all the way first up at Sandown and won easily, and I think that performance was good enough to see her win in Saturday class here. If she can get across to the front from barrier 16 without spending too much energy, I think she'll be very tough to run down. Really, really good price to be backing her each way. The horse she beat last start was SNEAKERS who I think is a really good chance at $26. She was three-wide the trip on that day and still finished off well to run 2nd. She gets a 2.5kg weight swing on Invictum Domina and maps to get a great run from barrier 6. First up she beat Pedrena who then went on to win in Saturday grade, so she ticks plenty of boxes. The only concern I have is the drop back to 1100m as I'd prefer her over 1200m or 1300m, but at the price I think she's a solid bet. The other horse to mention is MISS VESPER at $21. She gets a 5kg weight swing on Unique Lovely for a 1L defeat last start. She can be on the speed and give a good sight. RUN GYPSY RUN is another to completely forgive for last start. If you put a pencil through that run, her form is good enough to win this at double figures.

TIP: Invictum Domina (Best Value) / Sneakers EW

Race 5

Another tough race here with a very even field, as reflected in the market with joint $6 favourites. I think WHISTLE BABY is well-weighted to win this but I won't be backing her with the apprentice on from barrier 11. She's also never won at the track from 11 starts, and if the track remains in the Soft range, you can forget it. I'll be having a nibble on a couple at reasonable odds. The first is GREY STREET. Put a pen through last start when she overraced onto heels, was held up until the 200m mark, by which time she had drifted back through the field. She shouldn't have traffic problems from barrier 10 here, and her form previous to that included a win over Miss Vista and was very good for a race in this grade. She's got a good record at the track and although 1200m is about as far as she wants, I think she's a decent chance here at $7. The other I'll be backing is SWISS KISS. She returned from a spell with a dominant win at Wangaratta in BM70 grade, and followed that with a luckless run in Open mares company last start. She was three-wide without cover the entire race, so hopefully Baster won't make the same mistake today from barrier 4 once again. I think she can bounce back and run a big race at $8. A LOTTA LOVE and NIMINYPIMINY should be included.

TIP: Grey Street / Swiss Kiss EW

Race 6

ENIGMAN won impressively last start but he's come up very short odds here given that win was only in BM64 grade. The horse he beat came out at 50/1 at its next start and did absolutely nothing, so I've got a query on the strength of that race. There's two I'm pretty keen to back in this and two at longer odds that are worth including. NIKITAS is the first I'll be backing, probably for the first time ever. His last two runs have proved that his first up win wasn't a fluke, and this looks a winnable race for him. He comes out of a strong form race behind Urban Ruler where he overraced early from the good barrier. I think from barrier 11 they will ride him much colder and let him charge home out wide, and although 1400m is about as far as I think he wants, he can win this. I'll take the $4.80. The one I'm most keen on, however, is CANNOT BE SERIOUS at $8. His two runs for the new stable this prep have been very encouraging and his last start put the writing on the wall that he's ready to win. Sat three-wide with cover back in the field last start and charged home to just miss out by 0.3L. I think he's looking for the 1400m now and from barrier 5 he can settle much closer today than what he has been. Pretty keen on him at the price. The two at value I think are VALLIANO who is starting to come good and gets in very well at the weights, and MY PAISANN who comes out of some decent form races at the midweeks and can measure up here at $31. REVOLVING DOOR can win again but I'll take him on.

TIP: Nikitas / Cannot Be Serious EW

Race 7

DATA POINT goes on top here but pretty much by default given there is really nothing else in the field that catches my eye. His runs in this grade at his past two starts have been solid and the form behind Cannyescent has certainly stood up. The only concern is the fact that he's going to get a long way back from barrier 15 and will be giving them a big head start. He'll need to track wide and make a big run which he's done in recent starts when failing to win. However, I really do think this is a field that lacks depth and he's simply the best horse in the race. Mertens on board, will need a good ride. The only horse I could entertain to beat him (and the best value in the race for those not wanting to take $2.60 for Data Point) is Craig Williams' ride FLORAL FEVER, but he draws barrier 18. He's been thereabouts in his last three starts and steps up to 1400m here which is a distance he's won twice at before. I think we can back Data Point at the $2.60 and Floral Fever at the $9 for a winning result here and I'm pretty confident it will be one of those two.

TIP: Data Point / Floral Fever EW

Race 8

Just about race of the day here, and a very even one at that. I struggled to separate five or six of these. Eventually I ended up with ZARA BAY narrowly on top because she ticks plenty of boxes and there's nothing I can knock her for, whereas some of the others I have queries over. Her first up run was good over 1000m which was too short for her, much better suited to 1200m here. Dunn takes over from Oliver, drops to 54.5kg, should be able to settle midfield and with an even tempo she's got a good chance of winning this at an attractive price of $7. I'm terrified of DIVINE MR ARTIE who comes into this first up. First up last prep he bolted in and that was his best run all prep. Good record at the track and the distance, well weighted but the obvious concerns are barrier 13 with a 3kg apprentice on. He'll have to come from a long way back I'd think. ACT OF VALOUR just maps to get a perfect run in the race from barrier 5. He should sit just ahead of midfield behind the leaders in about 5th spot, and will have absolutely no excuses. Williams rides for Henry Dwyer which is ominous, but my concern is whether he's sharp enough at 1200m. I get the impression he's better suited to 1300m or 1400m. LEODORO was an absolute horror watch last start when favourite at Moonee Valley. Two starts ago in this grade he went down very narrowly but it was a big run. He draws poorly here again so will have to go back unless they change tactics and roll forward as they did three starts back. Has the ability if things go right. PORTMAN is first up and did win over 1100m first up last prep so he may well be sharp enough, despite winning over 1600m last prep. The early money suggests he is ready to go so keep safe. WIND FORCE draws to box seat from barrier 1 and looks the value at $15. 

TIP: Zara Bay EW

Race 9

Only three I'm really interested in here but the one that stands out is MAGIC CONSOL who is flying. Won over 1600m two starts ago at the Valley and beat two horses who I think could fight out the finish in Race 3. Then went down by a nose over 1600m at the Valley again last start after covering an enormous amount of ground. Back in 3rd was Data Point who I think will win Race 7, so all his form looks like it will stand up. He'll settle worse than midfield from barrier 8 but Craig Williams sticks with him here after riding him at his past two starts, and he now steps out to 1800m where he's won three of his four starts. Has placed twice at the track, gets in well enough at the weights; I think he's a tremendous chance here and $5 is a great price. The only two I could see beating him are VASSAL and OVERBERG and you could save on both of those. One to keep safe at huge odds is the topweight LORESHO for Weir/Rawiller. Did nothing on his Australian debut but I'm expecting sharp improvement.

TIP: Magic Consol (Best Bet)