Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, January 4th.
There's nine races on today's card and you can check out our tips and best bets below!
Best Bet: Race 5 - (6) Mrs Beckham
Best Value Bet: Race 8 - (2) Street Sheikh
Two standouts here. The favourite (6) Golden Gorge put up an impressive display on debut when dominating at Bendigo. He came from off the pace on that occasion and charged home over the top. There looks enough speed today to bring him into the race so I'd expect him to be the one to beat again. The value is definitely (10) How Womantic at $9.00. She was highlighted by our team on debut at Geelong and although she was green, she did the job nicely. She will measure up here and looks good odds.
(2) Clarice Cliffs returns to the races today and she is an exciting prospect. She's got three wins and two 2nds from six career starts and is undefeated first up. She does carry 59kg fresh today but D Oliver goes straight on after a promising trial and I suspect she's probably the best mare in the race. (8) Propelle gets the blinkers on first time having been knocking on the door with recent runs.
(10) The Last Napolean put up an impressive performance when winning the 955m dash at Moonee Valley last start and even though I rarely like tipping horses coming off a 955m run up to an 1100m race, this horse has the ability to handle it in my opinion. He finished off hard two starts ago when beaten just over a length, and prior to that was a dominant winner at Ararat over this distance. There's a few high up in the market that have some reservations against their name so I'm happy to stick with The Last Napolean.
(3) Bam's On Fire gets another chance to win today having gone down as favourite in her first two starts this preparation. She's undefeated at the track so that's sure to help, but there has to be some query as to whether she's possibly better on soft ground, given she's now only got the one win from nine starts on good ground. (13) Montenegro Man was huge in defeat first up, only going down by a nose. Fred Kersley replaces Craig Williams today which isn't the greatest jockey change but at least she drops 4kg in the weights. (9) Greetings Ned has finished close enough to last in both starts this preparation but has had absolutely no luck whatsoever, held up the entire straight in both runs. At double figure odds I have to back him again today.
(6) Mrs Beckham motored home from the back of the field first up before putting up a dominant win last start here at Caulfield. She went forward and trotted in by 3L, and although this is a big step up on maiden grade, she looks capable of handling the rise in grade. (3) Kuramae and (5) Bella Amore both come out of the same race and both look attractive prices at $8 and $11 respectively.
This is a really tough race with nothing particularly standing out amongst a host of non-winners. (4) Thunderdome gets its chance third up today. He's only won one race from 17 career starts which is the issue, but that win did come third up and he's never finished out of the money at this stage of his preparation. He's also placed in all four starts at the distance and has run 2nd in both starts at Caulfield, so he'll definitely be around the mark. (2) Montaser really caught the eye from the back of the field last start and I'll have something on at $7.50, but the concern is barrier 1 which could see him strung up in traffic back in the field.
Three horses stand out in this race and two are at big odds. (3) Turn The Tide bolted in to remain undefeated at this track and distance last start and a 3kg rise in the weights probably won't stop him from winning again. (6) Critical Thinking started $11 in that same race but tailed out to finish second last. He pulled up with an internal bleed so he had a legitimate excuse. Prior to that he was 3/3 at the track and distance, so he might be able to bounce back with a better run today at $31. (8) Jittery Jack was beaten a nose first up at Bendigo, where he sat three-wide the trip with 3kg claimer Maddison Lloyd on board. Second up today he could run another good race at $19.
(12) Just Benjamin is a UK import on debut for Anthony Freedman here, and he resumes as a gelding. He's a distance horse resuming over the mile, which is the obvious concern, but we saw a similar profile of horse win a week or two ago in the form of Aktau. He might be a Spring horse racing against off-season horses and he did look good in his trial. (2) Street Sheikh hates winning but he'll be right around the mark today with even luck. He's placed in 18 of his 21 starts, has never missed a place at this distance and has run 2nd in all three starts when second up. Drawn a bit awkwardly but he's got plenty of talent. Should run well at each way odds and looks the value.
Only two I'm interested in here. (3) Dondubhan is flying, finishing in the top two in five of his six starts this campaign. The one time he failed he pulled up with a throat issue on heavy ground so apart from that, her form is terrific. He might have to chase down (2) The Black Leopard though, who looks a likely leader from the inside barrier. He beat Dondubhan two starts back and went down by a nose over this track and distance last start. On speed is no issue here and the claim for Michael Poy is a big help.
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