Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for Caulfield on Saturday, April 18th.
It's the VOBIS race day at Caulfield today, with seven VOBIS races on the card, along with the Listed Bel Esprit Stakes.
The track is rated a Good 4 and the rail is out 3m. It looks a day packed with plenty of value across the card.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips below!
Caulfield Racing Tips: Saturday, April 18th
Best Bet: Race 3 - (2) Pippie
Best Value: Race 5 - (9) Street Sheikh
I'm not sure I've ever been keener to bet in Race 1 of a meeting! The run of (4) Simply Optimistic first up was enormous. He was slow away, settled toward the back of the field, was held up from the 400m-200m mark, and then charged home once clear to run 4th, beaten 1.3L. That was his first run back from a 42-week spell, and although he's raced very well fresh off long breaks in the past, you'd think there is improvement there. The query is he's failed in two previous second up runs, but he's got plenty of talent and looks a terrific winning chance with even luck. $6.00 is a good bet. (9) Sikorsky jumped out exceptionally well at Flemington leading into his first up run, and with any luck he probably would have won that race at Bendigo. He was held up the entire straight and looked to have plenty under the bonnet. He was only beaten 2L. His best is going to come over longer but Damien Oliver goes on today replacing Luke Nolen, a huge jockey change, and I simply have to back him again here at $10. Finally, I simply cannot believe the price on offer for (12) Vigere, who comes up $27. That's an insane price. He finished midfield in that same race as Sikorsky, but that was his first run back from a nine-week break. He's never run a place first up from a break from four attempts, but he improves significantly second up, with three top-two finishes from as many starts, including a win second up last prep. He's flexible in that he can lead or take a sit, but from barrier 1 he won't be far away at all and I'd expect them to try and lead. Early in the day at Caulfield, that's a good thing and if he finds the front, he could prove very hard to get past, even though he probably wants a mile. The stable is absolutely flying. There's a number of chances outside those, but they are the three I'll be backing.
Value: (9) Sikorsky $10 & (12) Vigere $27
(4) Simply Optimistic
$6.00
There really isn't much to this race at all. (1) Twitchy Frank is super consistent, having run 4th or better in every start this prep. She comes off a 3rd placing in the Bendigo Gold Bracelet, where she led and was only overhauled late. She actually ran 3rd in that exact same race last year before coming to this exact race and winning it, so there is plenty of similarities. She draws perfectly in barrier 3 and should find the front, and from there she will take plenty of catching, just like she did last year when leading all the way to win. (6) Clarice Cliffs ran 2nd in the Gold Bracelet at Bendigo, 0.3L ahead of Twitchy Frank, but she meets her a kilogram worse off at the weights today and is drawn a bit sticky out in barrier 8. She's knocking on the door for another win but with Twitchy likely to find the front pretty comfortably, I'd rather be on her. (8) Part Time Lover can be included at big odds. She doesn't win out of turn but she comes out of some strong form races and as I mentioned, this is a race with a very long tail so she measures up quite well. Big jockey change today with Jamie Kah replacing apprentice Alana Kelly, and barrier 1 is a big plus for her. The $21 looks a big price, as does the $4.20 for her to place. Something on her at the value.
Value: (8) Part Time Lover $21
Would have thought there's only three winning chances here. (2) Pippie deserves her short-price favouritism and looks exceptionally hard to beat. She was a Group 1 winner two starts ago over 1100m here, albeit carrying 6kg less, and her run last start in WFA Group 1 company was enormous. Now she drops back to a restricted race against her own sex?! If Loving Gaby, Gytrash or Bivouac ran in this, they would start $1.05. She won third up last prep over this track and distance and although she carries the big weight today, if she finds the front with ease it could be all over. (5) Sirius Suspect won two starts back at Flemington over 1200m and then stepped up to 1400m and ran 2nd. He drops back to 1200m today and that's his best distance, with all six career victories coming at the six furlongs. He draws barrier 1 here so should sit right behind Pippie, unless they are desperate to hold the rail and keep her out. He looks the biggest threat. If they overdo it up front, which there is a chance they might, (7) I'm Telling Ya could be the one charging home over the top at $21. He's racing in super form. He ran 3rd here three starts back, then won at Mornington, before dropping back to 1100m and going down by less than a length. He's a big price and looks the best value in the race. Pretty keen on Pippie back to this grade but won't be letting I'm Telling Ya go around $21.
Value: (7) I'm Teling Ya $21
If (1) Mr Quickie turns up anywhere near his best, this is as good as over. He's had two runs this prep, in the All-Star Mile and the Doncaster Mile, and now drops back to a restricted VOBIS-only race. The step up to 2000m is what he desperately needs, Damien Oliver takes back over, and although he carries 4kg more than any other runner, he should be winning this. The two Maher/Eustace runners loom as the danger if he is below par. (5) Grand Crown bolted in at Morphettville last start and he looks to be one of the likely frontrunners. He ran them ragged in Adelaide so if he does lead, expect him to try and steal a break on the field and in particular, the favourite. $9.00 is a decent price if you like him. (2) Sopressa always needs her first two runs back from a spell but she tends to improve third up, so she can be included.
I'm keen to take on two of the current favourites here in (10) Benitoite and (3) So Si Bon. Benitoite has never run a place on Good ground from five attempts, so the track conditions are very unlikely to suit her today, while So Si Bon is a complete myth of a horse. He's won three times from 48 starts and drops from 2000m back to the mile. I wouldn't back him with stolen money. So that leaves me pretty confidently with three other horses in the race. (1) Iconoclasm improved as expected last start, as he always does second up. His record suggests that he can improve even further here, given he's won twice from four starts when third up. He's won twice before here at Caulfield, he'll get the firm track he needs, and Craig Williams takes the ride from a good draw. He looks the one to beat. (7) Mahamedeis is also a terrific chance at $7.50. He's always in need of his first up run, and he doesn't go as well on wet tracks, so look for him to improve out of sight today. He's had five starts when second up, for three wins and a 2nd. He's won two of his four starts at the track and distance and provided the track is allowing for horses to run on from back in the field, he looks a major player. Finally, I can't work out for the life of me why (9) Street Sheikh is $23. He's been freshened up since failing as favourite in the Wangaratta Cup and comes into this off a seven-week break. He's never missed a place when first up from a spell, he's never missed a place from eight starts at 1600m and he's never missed a place at this track and distance. He'd probably prefer a bit of cut in the ground but that's not to say he doesn't handle firm ground. Paddy Payne and Billy Egan are always to be respected when they team up in town and they won this race last year with Widgee Turf. The Sheikh is an exceptional each way bet at $23. Happy to back Iconoclasm ($6.00), Mahamedeis ($7.50) and Street Sheikh ($23).
Value: (7) Mahamedeis $7.50 & (9) Street Sheikh $23
The 2YO race is a tricky one to figure out. Barrier 20 is a big negative but I liked the run of (16) Cornucopia on debut in the Gold Rush at Bendigo, where she drew wide and came from well back in the field to run 4th. She ran the second-fastest final 200m of the day and her jumpout at Cranbourne leading into that debut was also very good. She'll need to come from the back once again, which is tricky to do at Caulfield, but we're getting a big price at $17. Her stablemate (18) Halvoya gets a run with scratchings and I expect her to also run very well. She jumped out very smartly at Cranbourne too, winning her heat by about 4L without being asked to do much. She showed good speed so expect her to be forward from barrier 2 and Mark Zahra is a good lead. She's an $11 chance. Craig Williams jumps on (13) Chrome Angel who was a debut winner and can go well again. Backing Halvoya and Cornucopia.
Also backing: (18) Halvoya $11
Probably the hardest race on the card here. (1) Crystal Dreamer is just always around the mark and should be again. He's been in the placings in five of his six starts at the track and distance and comes off a 3rd placing in the Oakleigh Plate. (4) Eduardo ran 3rd in this race last year as the odds-on favourite but pulled up lame and went for a spell straight after it. It's a different set up this time around as he comes here first up. He'll roll forward from the wide gate and be there for a long way. (11) From Within has had a stable change to Danny O'Brien but notably, trialled at the Gold Coast only a few weeks ago, so the stable change may have been just because of the coronavirus situation. He wastes no time booking Craig Williams but I wonder how long he's had the horse for. (15) Coruscate is going to go on top for me at $10. He was terrible first up in Sydney but bounced back with victory at Bendigo last start. He draws well and possibly has more to come and James Cummings has a good record with his runners at Caulfield. He's a decent price in a wide-open race. (19) Beautiful Flyer gains a run with scratchings and just continues to run well wherever she lines up. She's big odds again today but can run a cheeky race.
It doesn't look as if the favourite (19) Masked Crusader is going to get a run here as the third emergency. In that case, (2) Broadwayandfourth can go on top at $7.00. She didn't do much first up on the heavy track behind Ancestry, but Mitch Freedman runners always improve second and third up so we should see a better performance from her here, especially getting back onto a firm track. She's drawn a sticky barrier out in 17 but if Ben Melham can be close enough on the turn, she should be in the finish. (10) Knowles has returned in good order with a first up win followed by a runner-up finish last start in the race mentioned above behind Ancestry. Craig Williams is booked to ride today and from the inside draw that should give this filly every chance. (14) Felicia resumes from a long spell of more than a year. She was super in her first two career starts, posting 4.3L and 4L margins. The big query is the stable change along with that lengthy break but D Oliver is booked which is an encouraging sign. I think the value in the race is (16) Paul's Regret, who resumed with a dominant victory at Moonee Valley last preparation. She has a good SP profile and if she can put in a similar performance here I suspect she will be somewhere around the mark given the lack of depth this race has. $23 looks a big price. Broadwayandfourth and Paul's Regret for me.
Value: (16) Paul's Regret $23
(2) Broadwayandfourth
$7.00
Very tricky way to finish off. I'll stick with (3) Ocular who should have won last start and was absolutely enormous in defeat, coming from near last to rocket down the outside and get within a nose of the winner at Sandown. Prior to that he finished midfield first up at The Valley in what has turned out to be a terrfic form race behind Overkill. If we go back to last prep, he also ran 2nd to How Womantic, which is another super piece of form. Drawn a better gate today, we should see him much further forward in the run. (4) Quail Hollow resumed with a win at Sandown and although the form is sketchy out of the race, I'll have something on him here at $23. He steps straight up to the mile second up and he's Mike Moroney's only runner of the day. The stable are airborne at the moment and he's too big a price to leave out. (12) Affair To Remember was good winning last start at Sandown, aided by a terrific ride. Damien Oliver goes on today and the form out of her win last start has already been franked through Sierra Sue. She's drawn wide and will get back but she's got a big finish on her. (1) Beehunter should appreciate getting back onto firmer ground and he's another horse with a big finish on him, while (7) Hasseltoff gets a jockey change today after three 2nds to start his career. He's just been left with too much to do in his races but he's a horse with some talent. (8) Moonlight Maid is the favourite but she might be looking for further than a mile.
