The third instalment of the Brisbane derby highlights Friday night action, as the Broncos host the table-topping Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium. With the Broncos winning both clashes last season, can Big Brother keep up their 100% record, or will the upstart Dolphins maintain their cracking start to the season and get their first win over the Broncos?
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all of our NRL content, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 6 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs The Dolphins
Suncorp Stadium, Friday 12th April, 8:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Broncos went down in a thriller last Thursday night to the Storm, going down 34-32 in Melbourne. Already without Reece Walsh and Payne Haas, the Broncos lost Adam Reynolds at the beginning of the second half, making their tight loss to the Storm more impressive. The loss of Reynolds will hurt the Broncos moving forward; however, it appears as though Reece Walsh will make an early comeback this week to bolster the Broncos for their matchup against the Dolphins.
As for the Dolphins, they secured their third win in a row last week, getting over the vastly improved Tigers 26-16. All the Dolphins’ back five managed over 100 running metres, and their ball control continues to be phenomenal, completing at 84% for the season, best in the league. The Dolphins copped some horror injury news though, with Herbie Farnworth, Felise Kaufusi, and Tom Flegler all set to miss the derby with the Broncos.
Match Preview
These teams met in round 4 last season, coincidently with the Dolphins riding a three-game winning streak. The Broncos closed 11.5-point favourites, and never looked like covering. The Dolphins led 12-8 with just 10 minutes remaining, however two late tries for the Broncos got them home 18-12. The teams met again in round 18 at the Gabba, with the Broncos closing 9.5-point favourites. Once again, the Dolphins had their chance to win the game, leading 16-14 with 11 minutes remaining. Again, two late tries for the Broncos got them home. The Dolphins were competitive in both games and have shown that they will get up for these contests with the Broncos.
The Broncos opened 9.5-point favourites for this game, and this is close to what I would make the game based purely on my numbers. With both teams suffering several injuries, the number hasn’t changed all that much, with some money coming in on the Dolphins, who now sit as 8.5-point underdogs. Whilst my numbers would suggest there’s no value here, I like the Dolphins to be in this contest, and with no Adam Reynolds to close things out for the Broncos, potentially even win the game.
As for the total, it opened 45.5, where it remains. Both matchups last season went under, and with no Reynolds I would lean the under here, however my fair total is 46, and as such I don’t see a tonne of value here. The Broncos have been an overs team to start the season, whilst the Dolphins have been more of an unders team. Steer clear of the total in this game in my opinion.
I like the Dolphins with the 8.5-point start, however see greater value in the either team to win by market. I can’t see the Dolphins blowing the Broncos off the park, and you can get better odds with either team to win by 10 or less. This is the bet for me. Strap in and enjoy what is sure to be a tightly contested affair.
Either team to win by 10 points or less
$2.08 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
J Isaako (1+ try) – The Broncos left side defence has leaked half of the Broncos 20 tries this season, and with Isaako only scoring once this season, he’s due to score this week.
J Arthars (1+ try) – Arthars has been in terrific form to start the season, scoring four tries in the opening give games. I suspect Arthars will be moved to the right, where the Titans’ left edge defence has struggled this season, conceding 54% of all tries this year.
Dolphins ML (1st Half) – This is based off last season’s games, where the Dolphins were the team that seemed more up for this derby from the get-go. Decent odds for them to do so again here.
SGM Odds: $10.92 at Neds
