Bledisloe Cup: Australia vs New Zealand Game 3 Betting Tips

September 3rd 2021, 2:12pm, By: Jim Tucker

Bledisloe Cup G3 Betting Tips

We're back for the third of the Bledisloe Cup Tests with some key factors in play. The big one is whether there is a slight drop-off in intensity from the All Blacks because they already have Lord Bledisloe's silverware under lock and key after two wins at Eden Park.  

Australia v New Zealand

Sun, Sept 5, Optus Stadium Perth 2pm (AWST)/4pm (AEST)

The All Blacks are ferocious when it comes to their attitude about winning or rather retaining the Bledisloe Cup. If there has been a chink, it's when the trophy-holding has been done and the "dead rubber" arrives in the third Test of a series.

Both the 2017 (23-18) and 2020 (24-22) victories by the Wallabies over the All Blacks were in dead-rubber Tests with the Bledisloe already lost. Both were also at Suncorp Stadium which is the venue worldwide where the All Blacks have tripped up most over the past decade.

One of the most famous of Wallabies victories in 1978 was also in a dead-rubber when Tony Shaw's men stunned the world with a then-record 30-16 victory over the All Blacks at Eden Park in the third Test of the series. "Dead rubber" is a poor term. Both Test sides will always rip in. It's just whether the Kiwis dip one or two per cent or try to take more risks because the trophy is already secure.

The truly astonishing measure of the All Blacks' class is that Richie Mo'unga isn't in Perth so they get to slot in a guru like Beauden Barrett at flyhalf. Not having stay-at-home halfback Aaron Smith's silky pass is a far bigger blow.

The Wallabies won 47-26 when the All Blacks visited Perth in 2019 with a little help from a red card that reduced the Kiwis to 14 men for half the Test.

The big in for the Wallabies will be Samu Kerevi in the centres. Hunter Paisami has been granted compassionate leave to be back in Brisbane for the birth of his first child.

Kerevi was a revelation in rugby sevens at the Olympics. You'd almost call him Australia's most dangerous player.

Coach Dave Rennie is using the flexibility with the Giteau Law to select the influential Kerevi as a Wallaby for the first time since the 2019 World Cup. Kerevi will give it his all because he thought he'd given up this chance when he went to play with Suntory in Japan.

The Wallabies will also get some extra oomph from the presence of lock Izack Rodda, back from his French stint with a little more aggression to his game.

If you look at the Wallabies' two losses at Eden Park, you can probably stitch 75 minutes of strong Test rugby together with pieces from both Tests.

The operative word there is "pieces". The Wallabies have played some excellent passages and scored some good tries against the Kiwis but never for long enough.

As for the defence and hang-in-there quality, that was the most disappointing aspect of fading away so poorly to lose 57-22 when the teams last met. We tipped this exotic, First Tryscorer/Margin: Rieko Ioane/NZ 13+, at $13 when the teams last met so there is value out there if you can find it.

2nd Half More Tries ($1.90 at Sportsbet)

 

TIPS

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