After 56 regular season games and five finals, the big dance is here. It’s a battle of David and Goliath in the BBL12 Final with the Scorchers hosting the Brisbane Heat at Optus Stadium. Can the Heat cause another major upset? Or will the Scorchers go back to back and pick up their fifth title?
Jack Tobin is here with his preview and tips for for the BBL12 Final, and If you're going to have a Dabble on the decider, why not bet with Dabble?
BBL12 Scorchers vs Heat Preview & Betting Tips
Optus Stadium, Saturday 4th Feburary, 7:30pm (AEDT)
Perth Scorchers
Predicted XI: Cameron Bancroft, Stephen Eskinazi, Aaron Hardie, Josh Inglis, Ashton Turner, Nick Hobson, Cooper Connolly, Andrew Tye, David Payne, Jason Behrendorff, Matt Kelly
The Scorchers have been the best side in the competition for almost the entirety of BBL12, with another campaign filled with the consistency that fans have become to expect from the Scorchers. The most impressive aspect of the defending champions campaign has been the depth of the side, who’ve manage to be the standout side in the competition with Mitch Marsh, Jhye Richardson, Ashton Agar and Lance Morris for the majority of the tournament. Aaron Hardie has had a breakout tournament, while Cameron Bancroft has been outstanding at the top of the order after working his way into the side after not being picked for the first five games of the Scorchers campaign.
The Scorchers looked in trouble at 3/22 during The Qualifier, before a stunning knock from skipper Ashton Turner guided the Scorchers home to a convincing win, to set up an opportunity for Perth to go back to back for the second time in their history. Turner's unbeaten 84 was another excellent finals knock from Turner, who has been one of the best big game players in the BBL, scoring 182 runs in his last five Big Bash finals matches.
The Scorchers smashed the Heat both times they faced off this season, with victories by margins of seven and eight wickets respectively. In the first fixture at Optus Stadium, the Scorchers chased down 172 with 21 balls to spare, led by Cameron Bancroft's 76 not out. In the return clash at the Gabba, the Scorchers chased down 156 inside of seventeen overs on the back of an unbeaten 132 run partnership between Josh Inglis (67 off 35*) Aaron Hardie (65 off 45*).
Brisbane Heat
Predicted XI: Sam Heazlett, Josh Brown, Nathan McSweeney, Sam Hain, Jimmy Peirson, Max Bryant, James Bazley, Michael Neser, Xavier Bartlett, Spencer Johnson, Matt Kuhnemann
An iconic performance by Michael Nesser led the Heat to one of the greatest upsets in the history of the Big Bash, as the Heat defeated the Sixers by four wickets in The Challenger on Thurday night. The Heat restricted the Sixers to 9/119, before falling into a heap at 5/56 on a difficult batting surface. Until Nesser smashed an unbeaten 48 off 32 to get the Heat over the line, in a game where no other batsman scored over 23. Nesser added to his batting with figures of 2/28, on a night where every Brisbane Heat bowler conceded 7.50 runs per over or fewer.
On January 14th, the Heat were at the bottom of the with a 2-1-6 record from their first nine games. 21 days later, and they’re in the final after winning seven of their last eight games. The Heat had a major boost with Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne and Matthew Renshaw coming back into the side for seven of their last eight games, however to knock off the Sixers without that trio, as well as Mitch Swepson, is a remarkable achievement.
If the Heat are to cause an upset in this clash, either Josh Brown or Jimmy Pierson are going to have to produce a seriously special knock. Brown has showed he is capable of scoring in a hurry this season, going at a strike rate of 143 in his thirteen innings in BBL12. Outside of a ballistic knock from Brown, it's difficult to see the Heat posting a score that will challenge the Scorchers given the lack of fire power in that batting unit without their Australian representatives.
Match Prediction
Although it was an outstanding effort by the Heat to beat the Sixers, the conditions at the SCG did bring them into the contest. The surface at Optus Stadium has been outstanding for batting all season long. With the pitch being so pure for both batting and bowling, it’s almost impossible to see this undermanned Heat side knocking off the Scorchers. The Scorchers have loved playing against the Heat, winning eight of the last nine games between the two sides.
The Scorchers have match-winners right through their side with bat and ball, and they’ve had consistent contributions from their entire squad throughout the season. Given the way the Scorchers were able to restrict the Heat and then mow down their target with ease both times they played this season, it’s hard to see a path to the Heat winning, outside of one of their top order batsmen having an absolute day out. A top four of Sam Heazlett, Josh Brown, Nathan McSweeney and Sam Hain doesn’t have the quality to post a winning score against the Scorchers.
The Scorchers H2H at $1.36 doesn't provide much value for the punters, but pairing it with the Scorchers to have the highest opening partnership is a safe play that bumps up the value nicely.
Scorchers H2H + Scorchers Highest Opening Partnership
$2.34 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
The Same Game Multi for the BBL12 Final unsurprisingly has a strong Scorchers flavour to it, as we back in the in-form players who have continuously got the job done for the reigning champions. To kick off the multi, we've got Cameron Bancroft to score 15+ runs. Bancroft has been a revelation since coming into the Scorchers side on New Year's Day, scoring 342 runs at an average of 57, with a strike rate of 142.
Aaron Hardie has had an incredible season in BBL12, scoring 443 runs at an average of 44, with a strike rate of 141. Hardie has hit the 20 run mark in eight of his fourteen innings in BBL12, incliding both his games against the Heat. Hardie smashed 57 and 65 not out against the Heat and will be full of confidence heading into Saturday night's clash.
To round out the final multi of BBL12 we're taking the third most prolific wicket taker of BBL12, Andrew Tye, to take 2+ wickets. Tye has 25 wickets from fifteen games this season, and has taken multiple wickets eight times. Tye took four wickets across his two games against the Heat, and will be a massive factor in the biggest game of the season.
Cameon Bancroft 15+ Runs
Aaron Hardie 20+ Runs
Andrew Tye 2+ Wickets
