Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Ballarat on Wednesday, September 30th.
It's a rare midweek meeting at Ballarat for metropolitan racing in Victoria on Wednesday, leading up to Turnbull Stakes day this weekend! We have an eight-race card with the track rated a hevay 8. The rail is out 4m from the 1600m-800m and 8m fo the remainder.
Trent Crebbin has studied the form and provided his preview and betting tips below!
Ballarat Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 30th
Best Bet: Race 7 - (7) Steamboat Rock
Best Value: Race 8 - (11) Megamea
A couple of these will potentially be looking to get into a Derby or an Oaks and would want to be going close here. (7) Redwood Shadow was very strong late from last on debut over 1300m, coming home in the fastest last 200m of the meeting behind Guineas hopeful Cambourne. He draws barrier 2 here so potentially sits a bit closer, and up to 1600m is ideal. A wet track is unknown, but that’s the case with most of the field. (4) Crackerjack Prince started $31 on debut but was another that was strong late. He’s a clear danger, with (9) Vilanculous the filly who will be suited up in trip as well, but Billy Egan is in poor form and she does draw barrier 7. Redwood Shadow the one for me in the opener.
Not sure there will be any stars here. I’m hoping the Cambourne form stacked up in the first, because I’ll side with a horse out of the same race at Donald in (7) Captain Canuck. He stuck on okay first up and whilst he was beaten nearly 5L, this looks a much easier race on paper. A wet track is a query, with Captain Canuck having failed on a soft 7 on debut, again in a much harder race back in the Autumn. He maps well here just off the pace from barrier 4 and John Allen sticks for the Maher/Eustace camp. (8) Jaffastock could surprise on debut. Michael Dee takes the ride and he draws better on paper than the stablemate (9) Kentucky Dream who is another with claims. Found this incredibly tough but leaning the way of Captain Canuck.
(5) La Marsa will get a fair way back here, but if the track allows them to run on, she has to be a big hope. Michelle Payne is riding her own horse here, and whilst she doesn’t ride often, she can bob up on one of hers and I think the horse is good enough. It took on a hot maiden on debut at Wangaratta, coming from an impossible position to finish 4th behind Toyz On Fire, Derive and Free Flying Star, who are all quite talented. She ran the fastest last 400m and 200m of the meeting that day, which is quite impressive considering stakes winner Front Page won on the same day. La Marsa draws wide again here which will make it tough but I could definitely entertain a play on her at $7.50, each way if you like. (11) Zelify has to be respected for Lane/Waller but looks just a touch skinny at close to even money. Plenty of debutants to round out the field with (7) Merva the pick of them for mine.
I didn’t mind the jumpout of (10) Miraitowa leading into this debut assignment. He looked quite quick and I wouldn’t be surprised if he settles in the first few, and with the raced brigade not looking particularly talented he might be too good. (4) Bethpage has been close up in a couple of solid maidens and resumes here. He brings a solid SP profile and has jumped out well. (1) Canford’s Sun is another that could break through here. He arguably should’ve won first up on the synthetic and does have a $3.50 SP in a very strong maiden when finishing down the track behind Shadow Goddess and Cabinho.
I think the winner comes from one of (1) He Can Star or (7) Deploys Alone. They met a few runs back at Moe, with He Can Star getting a beautiful run and proving slightly too strong after jumping $5.50. Deploys Alone was first up that day and sat wide on speed as a $3.10 chance, so I think there’s a strong case to be made that he can turn the tables. I’ve got no problem on him coming back to 1000m, and wet ground won’t be an issue. He Can Star is 2/2 on heavy so there should be no excuses here for either, but with senior jockey Craig Newitt taking over from Tayla Childs, I’m pretty keen to be on the side of Deploys Alone this time. (3) Mistake is 2/3 when first up and has placed twice on heavy tracks, so he has to be respected here.
The debut win of (1) Housay was very impressive, bolting in to win by 7L and justify the $2.50 favouritism. Put simply, if he brings that to a heavy track, he’ll be winning again so anything over even money simply has to be a bet here. On a slightly lacklustre midweek meeting compared to recent times, he’s one that should rise through the grades and be contesting some better races. Of the dangers, (2) Zorro’s Dream is the obvious after two good runs this time in. He has ticked the soft track box and brings a strong SP profile, which is keeping him short in the market here, but I just don’t think he’s as talented as Housay, who should be winning.
Pretty keen on (7) Steamboat Rock here. He was beaten 2.2L first up but probably should’ve won, settling back in the field before being badly held up in the straight, switching right off heels and powering late. He’s a horse I’ve always had a bit of time for and he’ll have no issues on wet ground. Olly replaces Walker here and even though the early price of $3+ is gone, I think he’ll be winning and is my best bet of the day. Stablemate (5) Bet Red looks the danger as he can roll forward, but a genuinely heavy track would be a worry. (12) Maia Nebula isn’t hopeless up in trip off a good first up run behind Mozzie Monster, but in a fairly thin race I’m pretty confident Steamboat Rock gets the job done.
(10) Zende narrowly accounted for (11) Megamea when they met on a heavy 10 two starts ago, but I think there’s a case to be made the latter is value here. Megamea was only 1.25L off Zende, and just got too far out of the race when coming from last. She should be at peak fitness here, gets 1.5kg off Zende, steps up to 1400m and if the inside of the track is mud by now, she’ll have clear air in the better ground down the outside. She’s the same price to place as Zende is to win which seems a touch long to me. (1) Brilliant Concept resumes off 11 weeks and has never won first up but does love heavy ground and brings the best form. If (2) Polanco could get back to his form last prep he’d go close, but he’s been average in two runs back and would need to find lengths to be featuring. I stuck up for (8) Sanctimonious first up off nearly two years off and he was a pass mark when 5th to Cambourne. Currie takes over from Will Price and he can only be improved 2nd up. He ran a very good race behind Written By on debut on a heavy track, so I don’t think the ground will be an issue and at the odds you could do worse than have something on.
Also backing: (8) Sanctimonious $9.00