Sunday night at Melbourne Park delivers a final with genuine legacy-defining weight. Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic meet in the men’s final of the Australian Open, a rematch of last year’s quarter-final on the same court.
For Alcaraz, victory would mean completing the Career Grand Slam at the youngest age in the Open Era, and becoming the first man ever to defeat Djokovic in an Australian Open final. For Djokovic, the stakes are just as historic: a 25th major title, pushing him into territory no singles player has ever reached.
Australian Open: Men's Final Betting Tips
Sunday, February 1st, 7.45pm AEDT
H2H Odds: Alcaraz ($1.30) vs Djokovic ($3.45)
Total Games Line: 38.5
Both players will have lots to play for as far as their legacies go in this final. Alcaraz arrives as the sport’s most complete modern athlete, explosive, creative, and now far more patient than he was a year ago. Djokovic remains the ultimate problem-solver, particularly in Melbourne night sessions where conditions slow just enough to reward precision, depth, and defensive excellence.
Head-to-head history and conditions matter here. Djokovic leads the rivalry 5-4 overall and 3-1 on hard courts, and he is a perfect 21-0 in Australian Open semi-finals and finals played at night. Those cooler, heavier conditions reduce the raw penetration of Alcaraz’s power and give Djokovic extra time to counterpunch and neutralise.
But this is not the same Alcaraz who lost to Djokovic here last year. His serve has been transformed, he’s winning over 60% of second-serve points this fortnight, compared to under 55% at the 2025 Australian Open. His groundstrokes are more compact, his footwork cleaner, and his rally tolerance markedly improved. Crucially, he’s now willing to stay in six-plus-shot exchanges, an area where he matched Djokovic statistically at last year’s US Open.
Djokovic’s path to victory is clearer but more physically demanding. He needs free points on serve, particularly the deuce-court slider and ad-court T serve, and must continue to be aggressive on Alcaraz’s second serve in key moments. From the baseline, his best pattern remains the backhand down the line when Alcaraz commits to the inside-out forehand, especially in Melbourne’s slower conditions where that forehand can sit up.
The defining question: does Djokovic still have a five-hour, full-intensity match in his legs against an opponent more than 15 years younger? If yes, Rod Laver Arena at night is still his best possible arena to make history.
Road to the Final
Novak Djokovic
Round 1: def. Pedro Martínez 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
Round 2: def. Francesco Maestrelli 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
Round 3: def. Botic van de Zandschulp 6-3, 6-4, 7-6
Round 4: def. Jakub Mensik (opponent withdrew injured)
Quarter-Final: def. Lorenzo Musetti (opponent retired injured)
Semi-Final: def. Jannik Sinner 3-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
Carlos Alcaraz
Round 1: def. Adam Walton 6-3, 7-6, 6-2
Round 2: def. Yannick Hanfmann 7-6, 6-3, 6-2
Round 3: def. Corentin Moutet 6-2, 6-4, 6-1
Round 4: def. Tommy Paul 7-6, 6-4, 7-5
Quarter-Final: def. Alex de Minaur 7-5, 6-2, 6-1
Semi-Final: def. Alexander Zverev 6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5
Prediction
This final likely hinges on initiative. If Alcaraz controls the second-serve battle and dictates early in rallies, he has the tools to finally solve Djokovic in Melbourne. If Djokovic’s serve holds up and he can consistently redirect Alcaraz’s power deep into the court, his Australian Open aura still carries enormous weight.
Best bet: Over 38.5 Games
Lean: Alcaraz has more weapons than ever, but on a Rod Laver Arena night session, Djokovic remains fully capable of producing one last historic stand.
Over 38.5 Games
$1.90 (2 Units)
