Finals footy is here and Saturday gives us a cracking two-game fantasy slate, with both matches carrying very different stakes.
We kick things off at the SCG where Sydney hosts Brisbane in a Qualifying Final, with the winner earning a week off and a home Preliminary Final. The Swans enter September severely undermanned, while Brisbane comes in as one of the form teams of the competition, creating plenty of interesting opportunities from a fantasy perspective.
Then it's off to Adelaide Oval for a do-or-die Elimination Final between Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs. The Dogs survived a thriller against Collingwood in the Wildcard Round to keep their season alive, while the Crows have had the week off and will be looking to make the most of home-ground advantage.
With only two games on the slate, ownership is going to be concentrated and finding the right point-of-difference plays becomes even more important. There's plenty of premium fantasy talent across all four sides, so getting our structure right and identifying the best value could be the key to climbing the Draftstars leaderboards.
Let's get stuck into Saturday's AFL Finals slate!
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AFL $50,000+ Saturday at Draftstars
AFL $7,500+ Saturday High Roller ($150 Entry) at Draftstars
AFL $2,500+ Saturday Mini ($2 Entry) at Draftstars
AFL $1,500+ Saturday Micro (50c Entry) at Draftstars
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Finals Week 1 Saturday
AFL Fantasy Finals Week 1 Saturday: Where to Attack?
On a slate with two pretty warm favourites, it’s no surprise that there’s two teams we can largely target from a fantasy perspective.
Firstly, the Lions are the stingiest fantasy team in the competition to play against. They are in the top three in the league in restricting points to opposition key forwards, inside mids, general defenders and the designated kicker, and there’s no relief in the other positions where they are also above average at restricting opposition points. Basically the Swans are in for a tough time all over the ground.
The Swans have been good at restricting opposition key forwards, while Brodie Grundy is always a tough opponent in the ruck. However they are worse than league average across all other positions on the ground, and their job only gets harder with the “Pullman Five” missing from their best lineup.
The Crows are always a difficult matchup for opponents from a fantasy perspective. They are among the league’s best at restricting opponents who are general forwards, inside midfielders and the designated kicker. They don’t really have a weakness to exploit.
The Bulldogs on the other hand, have been spiralling in terms of fantasy points conceded. They are now the league worst in conceding points to opposition general defenders and designated kickers, while they are in the top three worst in the ruck. They also give up above-average points across all other positions on the ground, so Crows players are definitely in play.
Game script: Back the favourites with Lions and Crows stacks
AFL Fantasy Finals Week 1 Saturday: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Tom Hanily ($6,000) is the only minimum-priced player that I could entertain on this slate. Hanily has been ok in his handful of games for the Swans with a score of 66 last week, and returns of 48, 48 and 58 earlier in the season, which isn’t awful for his price. It is a tough match up against the Lions however.
If you want to get any of the uber-premium players into your team then you’re going to have to find some real budget players which might be tricky. My preference is that there’s some good mid-priced value picks with high ceilings that you could aim for and hope that the premos don’t go huge.
Daniel Curtin ($9,980) is one of my favourite plays on this slate. Curtin seems like a player ready to explode on the AFL scene as he starts to realise his enormous potential. He moves like The Bont and if he can play half as well, then he’s going to be a beauty. But beyond potential, Curtin’s numbers are starting to build a compelling case. With James Peatling out injured, and both Jake Soligo and Josh Rachele preferred up forward, Curtin has been thrust into the middle where he’s enjoyed CBAs of 74%, 21%, 53% and 61% over the last month. That has translated to some consistent fantasy scoring in the 70s, although he did throw up a 94 against the Pies five weeks ago. The match up is favourable, the role is good and the price is right to get on board.
Levi Ashcroft ($10,420) / Jarrod Berry ($10,430) are both great value options this week in a soft matchup against the Swans. Ashcroft has had some poorer games this season but his scores of 72, 117 and 98 over the last three weeks have been very good. He also had a 98 against the Swans earlier in the season. Similarly, Berry has the ability to go large with a 132 earlier in the season, and scores of 72, 103 and 98 in the last three weeks. If the Lions get on top, I think we can get near-tons from both of these guys at a great price rather than paying up for the top-tier premiums.
AFL Fantasy Finals Week 1 Saturday: Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Rory Laird ($12,620) gets the gun matchup here against the Bulldogs who leak enormous points to the opposition defenders and designated kicker. All of the Crows defenders are in play. I lean into Laird simply because we know what he’s capable of. Laird was, at one point, the #1 fantasy player in the game, and while those days are behind him, he still has the ceiling there as evident by the 133-point game against the Dogs earlier in the season.
Zac Bailey ($13,740) has had a phenomenal season that earned him All-Australian honours. With a 92.2 season average, Bailey has been ultra-consistent, but the ceiling is there with a 133 just five weeks ago against Port, and a ton earlier in the season against Sydney. It’s a great matchup for Bailey to get off the leash and dominate, so I’m expecting another big ton here.
AFL Fantasy Finals Week 1 Saturday: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Izak Rankine ($16,340) has been incredible over the last month with scores of 129, 164, 138 and 121 and he’s been simply breathtaking to watch. As I mentioned earlier, I would love to take some of these premiums into battle, and Rankine would be my first pick, but I don’t love the budget players enough to fit the premiums into my salary cap. I’ll have to hope that the pressure of a final ensures they don’t get off the leash.
Here's our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Saturday
Weather Report for Saturday 5th September
Adelaide - Mostly cloudy, 15 degrees
Sydney - Partly sunny, 29 degrees.
No issues with the weather around the country on Saturday.
AFL Betting Markets Finals Week 1 Saturday
Odds provided with thanks to NextBet!
Sydney ($3.54) vs Brisbane ($1.30)
Line: Brisbane -23.5
Points: 188.5
Adelaide ($1.39) vs Western Bulldogs ($3.02)
Line: Adelaide -16.5
Points: 168.5
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change.
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Previews and Betting Tips for each match. Our experts break down each individual game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
