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AFL Brownlow Medal: Early Betting Markets

October 5th 2020, 6:11pm, By: Brownlow Bandit

A few more Brownlow betting markets have opened up over at Sportsbet, so we’re going to suggest a couple of early head-to-head plays, as well as a couple of speculative bets that offer some value. The Brownlow is the gift that keeps on giving, so check out our latest Brownlow bets below!

Head-to-Head Markets

A couple of early Brownlow head-to-head betting markets have opened up at Sportsbet and there were two that caught my eye.

Jed Anderson vs Touk Miller

Jed Anderson had a great year for North and if you read my Brownlow Team Votes article, you’ll see we are keen for him to poll well. We have him polling in four games for a total of 9 votes. He’s up against Gold Coast’s Touk Miller who we only have polling in three games for a total of 2.5 votes. There were a few games where Miller got plenty of ball, but he often had a negating role which makes it hard to poll well. Really like the price on Anderson with such a huge lead in our estimates.

H2H: Anderson win vs Miller


Liam Ryan vs Jordan De Goey

Jordan De Goey didn’t have a great season with injury again playing a role, but there were two games where he was enormous. He’s so eye-catching and hits the scoreboard, so we have him polling threes in each of those games for a total of 6 votes. He’s up against Liam Ryan who is equally as exciting, and also stood out in two games, but while we gave Ryan 3 votes in Round 15, we weren’t able to do the same in Round 18 where he only had 15 touches and 2 goals. So we have him on a total of 3.5. When the markets first went up, Ryan was a favourite head-to-head, which makes it an attractive bet on De Goey.

H2H: De Goey win vs Ryan


Most 3 Vote Games

This looks like a potential bet if you are happy to take the short odds on Lachie Neale. We’ve got him taking the three votes in 8 games this season, and we’re pretty confident in the majority of those games. Even if we get a few wrong, we’ve got him with a good buffer over the next best, depending on which way the umpires go in matches where we have awarded 2.5 votes rather than 3. As you can see below, we have a range for most of the players as they had games where BOG wasn’t clear cut.

Lachie Neale – 8
Travis Boak – 4-7
Jack Steele – 4-5
Cam Guthrie – 3-4
Dustin Martin – 3-4
Sam Menegola – 3-4
Christian Petracca – 2-4

Neale Most 3 Vote Games


Poll in Most Games

Lachie Neale is even shorter in this market at $1.40 at Sportsbet, but we’re not quite as confident here. We do have Neale in front, polling in as many as 12 games, but it’s only a narrow lead ahead of Jack Steele (10) and Nat Fyfe (10). It looks pretty clearly between those three, and while Neale and Steele ($6.00) are the favourites in the betting markets, you could entertain a spec on Fyfe who looks juicy at $21. He’s an over-poller but just remember he did miss a couple of games through injury. For us, it’s a no bet.

TIP: No Bet

Most Votes Last 8 Rounds

This Brownlow market is an interesting one. Just looking at Rounds 11-18, here’s our leaderboard:

Lachie Neale – 9.5
Travis Boak – 9
Christian Petracca – 9
Sam Menegola – 9
Ollie Wines – 9
Luke Parker – 9
Tom Rockliff – 8
Taylor Adams – 7.5
Patrick Dangerfield – 7.5
Dustin Martin – 7.5
Jack Steele – 7.5

Talk about a close leaderboard! Things could easily go a number of different ways if the umpires lean in different directions, so we have to look to take the value in this betting market.

Sportsbet have Christian Petracca the favourite, so let’s take him on!

If we stick with the script of Neale dominating this season, we have him leading this market (just), so he looks a potential play at $7.00. Others offering value include Sam Menegola ($67) and Luke Parker ($41) who both have three best-on-grounds in this period, and Ollie Wines ($41) who we have polling well in four of the eight games.

There’s a good chance of a tie or two with this market, so go with the value for a spec bet.

Value: Wines($41) / Parker($41) / Menegola($67)

Lachie Neale Last 8 Rounds


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