It’s semi-final week in the AFL and it kicks off on Friday night with a blockbuster in the City of Churches between Adelaide and Hawthorn. The Crows, after finishing as the minor premiers, are aiming to avoid a straight sets exit, while the Hawks will be gearing up for upset #2 of their finals series.
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Adelaide vs Hawthorn Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL First Semi-Final
Pressure on the Crows
The Adelaide Crows find themselves in a sudden-death semi-final, staring down the barrel of a humiliating straight-sets exit. After securing the minor premiership, the Crows were comprehensively outplayed by Collingwood in their qualifying final, a result that has sent shockwaves through their supporter base. The pressure is now immense on Matthew Nicks and his charges to rediscover the scintillating form that made them the league's benchmark. Playing on their home deck at the Adelaide Oval provides a significant advantage, but the psychological scars of last week's defeat could linger. For a team that has been a model of consistency all year, this is uncharted territory, and their response to this adversity will define their season.
Is the Hawks Midfield Good Enough?
Standing in the Crows’ way is a Hawthorn outfit brimming with confidence after a stirring elimination final victory over the GWS Giants. Sam Mitchell's young and exciting side has captured the imagination of the football public over the past 18 months with a daring, high-octane brand of football. Their forward line is potent and their defensive system has stood up under pressure. However, if there is a chink in the Hawks' armour, it lies within their midfield. While they possess talented individuals, they have at times struggled to gain ascendancy in the contested possession and clearance battles against the league's elite. This potential Achilles' heel could be exposed by Adelaide's powerful on-ball brigade, and it remains the biggest question mark over Hawthorn's ability to continue their giant-killing run.
Recent H2H History
Recent history between these two clubs points towards a fiercely contested encounter. While the Hawks hold a slight 3-2 advantage in their last five meetings, it was the Crows who were triumphant in their most recent clash earlier this season (Round 21). That match, also played at the Adelaide Oval, saw the Crows run out strong winners after a very slow start – it's a result that will surely be at the forefront of both teams' minds this week. Their other meeting this season was in Tasmania, and it was the Hawks who were narrow winners in tricky conditions.
Crows or Hawks? Here’s Our Adelaide vs Hawthorn Tip
Despite Hawthorn's strong momentum, it’s Adelaide who are our tip to emerge victorious in this high-stakes semi-final. Expect the Crows' midfield to assert its dominance from the outset, controlling the contest at the source and providing their potent forward line with ample opportunities. While the Hawks will fight tooth and nail, the Crows' class, coupled with their significant home-ground advantage, should see them steady the ship and book their ticket to the preliminary final.
Adelaide to Win
$1.80 (1.5 Units)
Adelaide vs Hawthorn Prop Bet, Thilseeker to Avenge
Here’s Our Best Prop Bet: Thilthorpe 3+ Goals
Riley Thilthorpe Will be breathing fire right from the opening bounce after a couple of embarrassing efforts last week that saw him ridiculed by the media. It was certainly out of character for the big man so I’m expecting a big bounce back game from the Thilseeker. The good news is he kicked four goals against the Hawks in a dominant performance in Round 21 and he has six bags of 3+ goals since Round 16.
Riley Thilthorpe 3+ Goals
$2.65
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Adelaide vs Hawthorn Same Game Multi
Adelaide to Win: See Best Bet. Expecting the Crows to bounce back.
Riley Thilthorpe 2+ Goals: See Best Prop Bet. Taking one less goal for a bit of a safer play for our Same Game Multi.
Jarman Impey 20+ Disposals: 28 disposals last week made it nine straight matches of 20 or more disposals and 11 from his last 12. Remains strong value considering.
Same Game Multi Odds: $3.60 at Dabble
Adelaide vs Hawthorn Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Friday, September 12th 2025
Time: 7:40pm AEST
Location: Adelaide Oval
Weather: 15 degrees, partly cloudy
Odds: Adelaide $1.80 vs Hawthorn $2.02
Line: Adelaide -2.5
Points: 165.5
Where to Watch Adelaide vs Hawthorn
You can watch the Crows vs Hawks clash on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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