The 2025 AFL Finals Series kicks off this Thursday night with Adelaide hosting the Collingwood in a massive Qualifying Final. The winner will book themselves direct passage through to the Preliminary Final, so it’s all on the line at Adelaide Oval from 7.40pm.
Below, we bring you our best bet, player prop, and Same Game Multi for Adelaide vs Collingwood, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Adelaide vs Collingwood Prediction & Tips: 2025 AFL Qualifying Final
Nine Straight, Top of the Tree: Crows Hit September Flying
Adelaide capped off a superb 2025 home-and-away season by finishing on top of the ladder with an 18-5 record, closing the year with nine straight wins. Their average winning margin across that streak was an imposing 32.2 points, highlighted by a nail-biting three-point victory over Collingwood at Adelaide Oval in Round 24. The Crows’ dominance was recognised with five players named in the 44-man All-Australian squad, with Jordan Dawson and Riley Thilthorpe ultimately earning selection in the final team. However, their premiership hopes took a major hit when Izak Rankine was suspended for four matches following a racial slur incident in that Collingwood clash. Should Adelaide win and progress this week, it would rule the star midfielder out for the remainder of the finals series.
On form, though, the Crows have well and truly entered the premiership window. They finished the season ranked No.4 for scoring and No.3 defensively, conceding just 71.1 points per game - the second-best mark in the league. That defensive steel has been built around standout years from Mark Keane, Josh Worrall, and Mitchell Hinge, who have formed a reliable wall in the back half.
Old But Gold? Veteran Pies Lean on Defence After Scoring Slump
Collingwood looked every bit the premiership favourite through the first two-thirds of the season, sitting on top of the ladder and the outright betting markets with a commanding 14-2 record after 16 rounds. But the wheels came off late, with the Magpies dropping five of their last seven games. Their only wins during that stretch came against cellar dwellers Richmond and Melbourne, while every defeat was handed down by eventual finalists.
Scoring dried up badly during that slump, with Collingwood averaging just 69.0 points per game across those seven matches - a return that would have ranked 15th in the league if maintained across the season. The club’s early-season dominance had at least afforded them a buffer, crucial for managing a side that at one stage fielded the oldest team ever selected in AFL history.
What kept them afloat was their defence, which remained the benchmark of the competition. The Magpies conceded just 70.7 points per game across the home-and-away season - the best mark in the league and a reminder of the resilience still underpinning their game.
Near Full Deck: Both Camps Bolstered by Timely Returns
Both sides enter the Qualifying Final with relatively clean bills of health, each missing only a couple of key contributors from their best 22. For Collingwood, Jeremy Howe and Reef McInnes remain unavailable, while Beau McCreery is expected to play despite knocks in the win over Melbourne. Brody Mihocek is also tipped to pass a fitness test on a niggling hand injury.
Adelaide’s headline absentee is of course Izak Rankine, whose suspension looms large, while Josh Rachele will also miss with a knee injury. The Crows will, however, regain some important pieces, with Max Michalanney and Luke Pedlar both cleared to return from hamstring setbacks.
Crows or Magpies? Here’s our Adelaide vs Collingwood Tip
The line has opened at 8.5 points in Adelaide’s favour, and I’m a big fan of the home side at that number. As is often the case, a touch of Collingwood popularity seems baked into the market, but given the Pies’ late-season form, I’d have this line closer to 12–14 points. The Crows have been the clear form team of the competition over the back half of the year and have won their last 10 games at Adelaide Oval by an average of 34.3 points. On that basis, I expect Adelaide to be too strong, booking a Preliminary Final berth, and in the process, drawing a line through Izak Rankine’s season.
Adelaide vs Collingwood Player Prop Bet
Our Best Player Prop: Tim Membrey First Collingwood Goalscorer
Membrey has kicked the first Collingwood goal on more occasions than any other player this season with five in total. Three of those occasions have come in the last six weeks alone. Like the odds here as third player on the list.
Tim Membrey 1st COLL Goalscorer
$6.50
Adelaide vs Collingwood Same Game Multi
Throughout the 2025 AFL season we’ll be putting together a fun same game multi for every match using Dabble.
Jordan Dawson 25+ Disposals - Has had 25+ in just one of his last five games but I think the cream rises to the top in the finals and he should be back playing a big part in the Crows midfield. Has had 25+ on 10 occasions this season and had 27 against the Pies earlier this year.
Ben Keays Anytime Goalscorer - Kicked 35 goals in 23 games this season, going goalless in just six of those games. Interestingly, kicked zero in both of his games against the Pies this year but I expect him to be on the scoresheet Thursday night regardless.
Nick Daicos Anytime Goalscorer - Hinted at potentially spending some more time forward during this finals campaign when he was interviewed on SEN last week and I think it tracks. McCrae will want him out there for nearly the entirety of the game so I’m expecting him to rest forward.
Same Game Multi Odds: $3.55 at Dabble
Adelaide vs Collingwood Betting Odds & Match Info
Location: Adelaide Oval
Date: Thursday 4th August
Time: 7.40pm
Odds: Adelaide ($1.60) vs Collingwood ($2.35)
Line: Adelaide -8.5
Total: 160.5
Where To Watch Adelaide vs Collingwood?
You can watch Adelaide vs Collingwood on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports!
Tail our Adelaide vs Collingwood at Dabble!
Not familiar with Dabble? Check out our full Dabble review here, or by clicking the banner below.
