Round 4 of the 2023 AFL season begins on Thursday night with Brisbane vs Collingwood at the Gabba. We preview the blockbuster clash and bring you our best bet and Same Game Multi. Good luck to everyone following!
Also, make sure to check out our AFL page regularly to keep up to date with all of our content, including tips for every game, weekly Brownlow recap, and more!
AFL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane vs Collingwood
Thursday 7:35pm AEST, April 6th, Gabba
It’s a cracking game we have on our hands to open up AFL Round 5, with Brisbane hosting Collingwood at the Gabba in front of what will be a raucous crowd. There’s ominous weather forecasted for much of the country in the coming days, but in Brisbane it’s expected the temperature be in the low 20’s around kick-off, with minimal rain on the cards.
Brisbane have looked shaky in the early parts of the season and enter Round 4 with one win and two losses. Their opening round defeat against the Power was nothing short of embarrassing, particularly considering the Power’s poor form since then. Last weekend’s loss against the Bulldogs was also lacklustre, while their Round 2 win against the Demons was fantastic. So, who are the real Lions in 2023?
A big reason for the Lions poor start to the season is due to a number of their key players not producing to their usual standards. Hugh McCluggage has averaged 25 disposals in each of the past two seasons but is averaging less than 18 so far. Meanwhile, forwards Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood, Charlie Cameron, and Lincoln McCarthy are all down on their goals per game average from a season ago.
Collingwood have quickly silenced any doubt about 2022 being a fluke, and they look like the team to beat in the early stages of the season. They’ve secured wins against three quality teams in Geelong, Port Adelaide, and Richmond, winning each of them by 14+ points. The one query about the Magpies is how well their game plan will travel away from the MCG, as they’re yet to play at any other venue in 2023.
The Magpies also have a big issue in their ruck department heading into Round 4, with all three of their listed ruckmen unavailable due to injury. Coach Craig Macrae has indicated that new recruits Billy Frampton (key defender) and Dan McStay (key forward) will take on the lion’s share of the ruck duties, which could also leave them a touch thin at either end of the ground.
It's been an incredibly difficult task finding value in the head-to-head and handicap markets in what’s been a highly volatile 2023 season to date, so I'll be steering clear of those markets on Thursday night. Instead, I've found some value in the ‘Wire to Wire’ market where I fancy ‘Any Other Result’. It should be a highly competitive game between two notoriously high-scoring teams, and that usually results in a see-sawing affair that will make it difficult for either team to lead at the end of every break.
Wire to Wire - Any Other Result
$1.97 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals – Lachie Neale has had 25+ disposals in 15 of his last 16 matches at the Gabba and also clocked 31 last weekend. He’s in form.
Dan McStay 1+ Goals – Comes up against his old side for the first time and has been in some good touch for the Magpies. This should be an attacking game, so you’d expect he will jag at least one.
Ash Johnson 1+ Goals – Looked great in his return to the seniors albeit without kicking straight. He’ll get plenty of chances to hit the scoreboard against the Lions.
Charlie Cameron 2+ Goals – Is yet to hit his straps this season but gets an opportunity for maximum damage this weekend against a Magpies defence that isn’t blessed with elite small defenders.
Same Game Multi odds - $4.33
