There’s a huge three days of rugby in store at Melbourne’s AAMI Park with the first Super Round...five games in Super Rugby Pacific plus the Super W grand final.
There is only one stat that is relevant. An early start on reversing the calamitous 2-23 win-loss ledger of Australia’s sides against their Kiwi opponents in trans-Tasman clashes last year.
We tipped the Blues upset of the Crusaders at $2.40 last weekend. Let's take a closer look at Round 10 for some more winning value.
Super Rugby Round 10 Betting Tips
Chiefs v NSW Waratahs
Fri, April 22, AAMI Park, Melbourne 7pm (AEST)
The Waratahs got hammered 40-7 in this match-up last year but it is a vastly different NSW outfit this year with far more resilient defence and far more equipped at being able to slow down Kiwi ball.
Backrowers Charlie Gamble and Michael Hooper will be big factors in this area but it’s across the park that the Waratahs have to slow down the Chiefs’ ball delivery.
The Waratahs scrum is vastly improved as well and offers stability to launch attacks from.
There’s no way of sugarcoating this. Even with the confidence of a 5-3 start, it’s going to be hard for the Waratahs, who have lost their last 10 games against Kiwi sides.
Hooper v Sam Cane (Chiefs). Now that’s a match-up. This game is a really litmus test on the Waratahs’ improvement. If you are looking for a tryscorer...Chiefs fullback Chase Tiatia is perfectly named.
Blues v Fijian Drua
Sat, Apr 23, AAMI Park, Melbourne 5.05pm (AEST)
The Fijians have made some solid improvements over their first eight games but they are still 1-7 entering their toughest test.
The confident 7-1 Blues are just coming off an emotional win over the Crusaders in Christchurch.
No team has scored more tries (33) this season than the Blues and that scorepower comes with physical crunch up front.
Here’s a big stat from Opta Stats. No team scores more points (3.2) per entry into the attacking 22 than the Blues. No team scores fewer (1.8) than the Drua.
That’s all about clinical execution. Blues going big here.
Hurricanes v Queensland Reds
Sat, Apr 23, AAMI Park, Melbourne 7.45pm (AEST)
It’s such a bummer that key attacking threats James O’Connor and Jordan Petaia are out injured. This would have been a tip for the Reds if they’d have been starters. Those two losses trim both punch and organisation from the backline and scorepower.
The Reds have been training for this game since the pre-season in terms of a ball-retention on attack, keeping turnovers to a minimum and pressuring with big defence.
The Reds will still have some strong passages to show they will knock off a Kiwi team or two in this competition.
One comfort is that the Reds’ attacking style uses Hamish Stewart, Hunter Paisami and returning fullback Jock Campbell as first receivers as well as the No.10. That will take some of the heat off rookie flyhalf Lawson Creighton. Most of all, O’Connor’s absence will mean more playmaking and running from halfback Tate McDermott. The Reds are resilient and have proven it time and again. They are a worthy 7-1 team and will fight all the way.
No team breaks more tackles (54) in the opposition 22 than the Hurricanes which is a measure of their attacking potency. The Reds average less than half that (25).
Highlanders v Brumbies
Sun, Apr 24, AAMI Park, Melbourne, 2pm (AEST)
Here it is. It’s not only the closest betting contest of the round but a real chance for the Aussies to get a win up. The Brumbies have named a strong side with Noah Lolesio back at flyhalf after injury to partner top halfback Nic White. No Aaron Smith in the Highlanders line-up definitely makes it a little easier.
The Brumbies got their maul going again in their most recent win over the Drua. That weapon plus big defence and a well-grooved backline taking their chances can apply some points pressure.
The 7-1 Brumbies have a confidence that the 1-7 Highlanders just don’t have after a series of close losses. Brumbies to win.
Crusaders v Melbourne Rebels
Sun, Apr 24, AAMI Park, Melbourne, 4pm (AEST)
It’s just a hot Crusaders outfit. There is try-power everywhere with Will Jordan, Sevu Reece and Leicester Fainga’anuku in the back three.
The Rebels play to a structured plan and are only learning to adapt on the run. Within that, they kick a good deal but not well enough for the Crusaders not to punish them.
When the game starts to get away from them, the Rebels are really going to struggle to stay in this.
It’s great to see dynamic Wallaby Rob Leota back from injury to start for the Rebels. Young winger Glen Vaihu is on the rise and this will be a great test against the Crusaders.
If you are looking for an Any Time Tryscorer...Reece and Fainga’anuku look good things.
