State of Origin Game 2 heads west to Perth’s Optus Stadium for the second time as the Blues look to level the series at 1-all. It’s a standalone fixture this weekend and by the time kick off looms, rugby league fans will be to watch this match. Game 1 went the way of the Maroons 16-10 in an upset performance that has rocked the Blues, leading to 7 changes in their side ahead of this match.
The stadium is expected to be near capacity for rugby leagues showcase event and the journey across the Nullarbor brings its own challenges for both sides. This game promises to be another epic contest, with similar intensity and speed from Game 1. This Stage of Origin betting preview will aim to make your experience more enjoyable by looking at what betting options are available and how the match will take shape.
New South Wales vs Queensland
Sunday 26th June, Optus Stadium, 7:50pm (EST)
Squads
New South Wales
1. James Tedesco 2. Brian To’o 3. Matt Burton 4. Stephen Crichton 5. Daniel Tupou 6. Jarome Luai 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Payne Haas 9. Api Koroisau 10. Jake Trbojevic 11. Cameron Murray 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo Interchange: 14. Damien Cook 15. Angus Crichton 16. Junior Paulo 17. Siosifa Talakai Reserves: 18. Nicholas Hynes 19. Joseph Suaalii 20. Jordan McLean 21. Clinton Gutherson 22. Victor Radley
Queensland
1. Kayln Ponga 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Dane Gagai 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Lindsay Collins 9. Ben Hunt 10. Josh Papalii 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Felise Kaufusi 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui Interchange: 14. Harry Grant 15. Jai Arrow 16. Patrick Carrigan 17. Jeremiah Nanai Reserves: 18. Tom Dearden 19. Thomas Flegler 20. Beau Fermor 21. Corey Oates 22. Reece Walsh
Match Preview
The Maroons prevailed in Game 1 and should be proud of their efforts. Heading into the fixture as outsiders, they built on a halftime lead to kick clear in the second half and scrape home against a fast-finishing Blues outfit. If one more play had of been allowed, the Blues might have scored and sent the game to Golden Point. However, they didn’t, and the Maroons will want to claim the series with a victory in this match.
The Blues were outplayed in most areas in Game 1; despite more possession (51%), they completed fewer sets (80% vs 86%), averaged fewer metres per carry (8.5m vs 9m) and made more errors (10 vs 8). As horrible as that may sound for a team perceived as stronger, the performance wasn’t as bad as it has been suggested by some ‘alarmist’ media presenters. For several of the key Blues players to underperform (in the same way Maroons players excelled) and only lose by a converted try must be encouraging for this squad. Many will read too much into the changes but there is no doubt that this NSW team appears better balanced than the one taken into Game 1.
It was interesting to note in Game 1 how quickly the Blues moved away from playing the Maroons in the middle. With a quick ruck, they were able to make easy metres here and had the Maroons on the back foot. The Maroons strength was in their aggressive defence and ability to slow the ruck down. With the ball, they were dangerous at the line with Munster and Grant troubling their opponents. Still, the Maroons only prevailed by 6 points.
The move of Koroisau to start will allow Cook to play a similar role to Grant and use his speed more out of dummy half. You can be sure that Cleary will be out to prove his doubters wrong, and the inclusion of Burton adds another dimension that should release pressure on Tedesco. They have named a noticeably faster pack, while the Maroons have gone with strength as Collins comes into start and Fa’asuamaleaui shifts to lock. The Blues are listed as favourites ($1.72 vs $2.15) and they are hard to go past, especially considering the Maroons have the ‘safety net’ of a Game 3 fixture at Suncorp Stadium.
There are two interesting points which need to be made ahead of this fixture: NSW have won 7/10 Game 2’s and 4 have come following a Game 1 loss by a 1-12 margin, and the past 3 Game 2 victories have all been 13+ victories to NSW. It would be surprising to see a similar pattern in this fixture, but the Blues appear more capable. Perhaps not enough credit is going to the Maroons for their victory in Game 1 and for that reason, the preferred selection is for the Blues to cover the line. That way, a blowout Blues victory still delivers money to your pocket.
New South Wales -1.5
$1.85 (2.5 Units)
Prop Bets
First Try Scorer
In the past 10 years in Game 2 Origin matches, and only twice has a player been from outside jersey numbers 1-5: 2013 (Thaiday – second row) and 2014 (Hodkinson – halfback). Centres have crossed for the opening try 4 times (3 times for NSW) and wingers 3 times (twice for QLD). As for unit investments, the recommendation is for 0.5 units on each.
Favourite – Tedesco ($10 at Ladbrokes) 0.5 Units
Roughie – Burton ($14 at Ladbrokes) 0.5 Units
Tedesco was the preferred selection in Game 1 and not much changes here with his potency as a ball player, carrier and finisher increases his chances of cross the line. Burton is named as the roughie with an unknown x-factor at this level. He was the Dally M centre of the year and will relish the return of his combination with former Panthers teammates. If anything, there is a preference for Burton over Tedesco.
Favourite – Cobbo ($9 at Ladbrokes) 0.5 Units
Roughie – Holmes ($19 at Ladbrokes) 0.5 Units
Cobbo was fantastic in Game 1 and will again be searching around for his first Origin try. He is a multi-threat player with a tremendous ability to leap into the air. Holmes scored twice in Game 1 and is back to his best form. The Maroons have confidence in attacking to his edge and this fixture should be no different. His physicality may also cause issues for Crichton. Just like Game 1, $19 is overs for him.
Man of the Match
This is a market which should be avoided. It is hard to pick and often, you’re investing on the opinion rather than the right winner. Of the past 10 Game 2 fixtures, forwards have dominated with 7/10 players coming from the engine room. Of the past two results (which have been 13+ victories), a fullback (Tedesco) and halfback (Cleary) have been awarded the result with the outlier being Jennings (centre) in 2015. For the forward, hooker, second row and lock are tied on 2 each, with the other winner being a prop (Jake Trbojevic in 2019). If you must have a bet, no more than 0.5 units should be invested.
Favourite – Tedesco ($7 at Ladbrokes) 0.5 Units
Roughie – Burton ($23 at Ladbrokes) 0.5 Units
Cleary is again the favourite ($5.50) but a big game will be needed from Tedesco on both sides of the ball if the Blues are to prevail. When his club team has won, he has performed well. His impact should be no different here. The value bet is enticing for an Origin rookie. Burton is unproven at this level but there is something special about this kid. For what it’s worth, I was tempted to list Paulo ($81) as the value; despite coming off the bench his impact is always positive, and his club form has been tremendous. The only concern for him is that he will not get enough minutes on the field.
Favourite – Munster ($6.50 at Ladbrokes) 0.5 Units
Roughie – Cherry-Evans ($7.50 at Ladbrokes) 0.5 Units
Munster was the winner of this in Game 1. His form so far in 2022 has been superb and if the Maroons are to win, he will again be a large contributor. If they do, $6.50 is great value. For value, DCE also had a large influence in Game 1. At times, the Munster-show overshadowed his involvement. Fact is, Munster could not have achieved what he did without the kicking game of DCE or ability to take the ball to the line and draw in defenders.
Total Match Points
The average total points in the past 10 Game 2 fixtures is 33.6 points. In Game 1 of the series over the same period, it is 28.5 points. It appears Game 2 allows for a greater attack as teams know what to expect. Such is the unpredictability of Game 2 fixtures, a 0.5-1.5-unit investment is recommended. Dry and mild conditions are predicted for this match, and it should see more points scored than what is being offered by the bookies.
Total Points Over 38.5 ($1.90 at Ladbrokes) 1 Unit
