And now for the decider. The Australia-England series reaches a crescendo at the Sydney Cricket Ground with the third Test on Saturday night.
The two Tests so far have been fascinating. They’ve gone to script and not gone to script. Let me explain.
International Rugby Union Betting Tips
Australia v England
Sat, July 16, Sydney Cricket Ground 7.55pm (AEST)
Everyone expected the English forwards to come out all guns blazing and that has been the theme in both Tests so far.
They weren’t clinical enough to get maximum pay for it in Perth, led just 6-3 late in the first half and the Wallabies ran over the top of them even with only 14 men.
In last week’s second Test at Brisbane’s Suncorp Stadium, the English did capitalise on their smashing, physical start, led 19-0 and resisted a gallant Wallabies fightback that could have pinched the result.
The Wallabies have had the momentum in the second half of both Tests. What they need is a more brutal, imposing start at the SCG. The tones of the midweek State of Origin classic were there to see for every Wallaby watching so a bit of that early intensity would be wonderful.
Selecting Harry Wilson at flanker adds a big forward who always wants to be in the game from the start. A dozen or more massive carries from Wilson is exactly what’s needed.
When the English roar dies down a bit from the pack, they have proved vulnerable. The Wallabies get more into their patterns and they’ve shown they can score if they get into the English 22.
What makes this Test so hard to predict is the sudden re-writes to the script you might imagine at kick-off. Tom Banks, Jordan Petaia and Allan Alaalatoa have all suffered Test-ending injuries in the opening 25 minutes of the Tests so far. Losing Darcy Swain to a red card and another injury to Izzy Perese have come by the 41-minute mark.
It’s dodgem derby stuff out there because England lost top forward, Maro Itoje, for the rest of the series before half-time in Brisbane too.
What does it all mean for the third Test? The Wallabies will have an Origin-style firecracker under them to start better. If they get a lead early, they’ll go on to win.
Even with the injuries, the Australian backline is sound enough. Reinstated fullback Reece Hodge just has to catch more high balls than he did for the Melbourne Rebels earlier in the season.
We are all getting excited about code convert Suliasi Vunivalu getting his first Wallabies chance off the bench. This Test will be too close for a major experiment so he’s a 15-minute man tops.
What he is part of is an excellent bench of super subs. The subs scored all three tries in the first Test so coach Dave Rennie is wanting some similar energy from Vunivalu, livewire halfback Tate McDermott, strong-running prop Angus Bell and co.
Little things have decided the Tests to date. The Wallabies muffing an attacking lineout when England were down a man in Brisbane was a pivotal moment for example.
A bit of history...the Wallabies lost series deciders to the British and Irish Lions (2013) and Ireland (2018) on home soil but more relevant is the tense series-deciding win over France last year. Young Noah Lolesio stepped up there and will need to again.
England have reintroduced calm, kicking 35-year-old halfback Danny Care for this Test. You won’t die wondering if he’s going to kick...again. He does it well too so the Aussies have to catch them.
Wallabies to win. Narrowly.
A win for the Wallabies by 1-12 points at Ladbrokes is paying $2.50. That’s appealing.
The England to lead at half-time and Wallabies to win bet is paying $6 with the same bookie. On the themes of this series, that’s a solid bet.
Wallabies hooker Dave Porecki is $3.50 to score a try which means a rolling maul drive from 4m out not a chip-and-chase classic from 50m. Equally, England hooker Jamie George is at $3.75 for the same act.
Across at TAB.com.au, the $1.95 being offered for Total Points in the Test topping 48.5 is too good to miss out on. Have a crack. The field at the SCG floats way inside the fence, defenders can get disorientated, kicks can bounce high on a firm field and so on. Points will be scored.
TAB.com.au have set the Wallabies as favourites at –2.5 points. And it may be that close.
It’s a week of deciders in four big Test series across the world. Link the tips below for a four-leg Rugby Multi paying $16.20.
Wallabies 1-12
$2.50 (2 Units)
Other Tips
New Zealand v Ireland - Sat, July 16, Sky Stadium, Wellington 5.05pm (AEST)
South Africa v Wales - Sun, July 17, Cape Town 1.05am (AEST)
Argentina v Scotland - Sun, July 17, Santiago del Estero 5.10am (AEST)
