The final round of the AFLW home & away season is upon us, with one place still up for grabs in the top six! There’s plenty of jostling to be done inside the top five, so there’s plenty of crucial games on this weekend. As always, we’ve got you covered with our previews and tips for Round 10!
AFLW Round 10 Betting Tips
Geelong vs GWS Giants
Friday 6:10pm AEDT, GMHBA Stadium
The end of the season couldn’t come quick enough for both of these sides, after disappointing losses against bottom five options for both Geelong and GWS. The Cats were held goalless by St Kilda who had only won one game heading into the clash. GWS piled on four goals to none in the last quarter, but it was too little too late in an eight point loss to Richmond.
Geelong has been an excellent side in defence this season, conceding just 27 points per game. The Cats defence has kept them in every game they’ve played this season, with their biggest loss coming by just 14 points - a drastic improvement from their average losing margin of 32 points last season.
This game is a battle of offence vs defence with Geelong being a strong defensive side, while the Giants are potent in attack. GWS have averaged 38 points per game against opposition outside of the top six. The contrast in styles will make for a fascinating watch, but with the Cats ability to keep games tight against all opposition this season should give them plenty of confidence. Geelong will end their campaign with a close win over the Giants.
Collingwood vs Richmond
Saturday 3:10pm AEDT, Victoria Park
A heartbreaking two point loss against Adelaide last week means Collingwood must win this weekend to secure a place in this year’s finals series. The Pies are only two points ahead of the Bulldogs, so a loss against Richmond will open the door for the Bulldogs to leapfrog them. Richmond picked up their third win of the season last weekend, with a five goal to none first quarter setting up the win.
Collingwood’s defensive performance last week against the Crows would give them plenty of belief that they can take it up to the best sides in the competition. The Magpies had been beaten by margins of 31, 24 and 23 points in their three games against top six sides this season heading into the clash against the Crows. To finally put four quarters of competitive football together against a good side, is a big positive for Collingwood.
Richmond have been one of the most inconsistent sides in the league this season and it’s difficult to see them winning two games in a row. Even in last week's win, they went goalless in the second and fourth quarters. With the Pies finals hopes on the line, expect to see a big performance from Collingwood at home, against a side they have never lost against.
Collingwood (-11.5)
$1.88
North Melbourne vs West Coast Eagles
Saturday 5:10pm AEDT, Arden Street
North Melbourne will be looking to secure a home Qualifying Final when they host the bottom placed West Coast on Saturday afternoon. The Eagles were beaten by ten goals at home last weekend against the Bulldogs, after a 74 point loss against Brisbane the week before.
The Kangaroos have struggled to get their attacking game going in the last two weeks with losses to Melbourne and Brisbane, however a matchup against West Coast comes at a perfect time to get back on track. The Eagles have the worst defence in the AFLW, conceding 50 points per game this season. West Coast have an average losing margin of 32 points - the most in the league. To pair with their struggling backline, the Eagles have scored the second fewest points of any side in the league, averaging just 22 points per game.
North Melbourne are 5-0 at Arden Street across the history of the AFLW, while West Coast are 1-6 in games in Victoria. This is a massive mismatch and given the poor form the Eagles are in, this clash could get very ugly. With losses by 60 and 74 point margins in the last two weeks, West Coast are going to be in for a long day against the Kangaroos.
North Melbourne (-29.5)
$1.88
Melbourne vs Carlton
Saturday 1:10pm AEDT, Casey Fields
Melbourne became the first team to break the century and recorded the biggest win in the history of the competition last weekend against the Dockers. The percentage boost has kept their hopes of finishing top alive, with the Demons sitting just four percent behind Adelaide coming into the final round of the season. Three wins in a row for the Blues has added some respectability to their ladder position, however once again Carlton will be on the outside looking in, as another season has gone to waste.
Melbourne had seven individual goal kickers, were +111 in disposals, +39 for inside 50’s, +24 for marks inside 50 in the most dominant performance in the history of the league. Carlton have conceded an average score of 52 points in their five games against top six sides, and now coming up against the highest scoring team in the competition, it’s a scary proposition for the Blues.
The Demons have won twelve games in a row at Casey Fields, and they’ve made a habit of dominating in the windy conditions at home. Although Carlton have picked up three consecutive wins, they've come against sides placed 9th, 11th, and 13th. A big win in this clash could see Melbourne leapfrog the Crows, so expect them to come out all guns blazing on Saturday night.
St Kilda vs Adelaide
Sunday 1:10pm AEDT, RSEA Park
The Crows hung onto top spot by the skin of their teeth in a two point win over Collingwood in Round 9. Adelaide come into their final game of the home & away season four percent ahead of Melbourne, so a win will likely secure the minor premiership. St Kilda picked up back to back wins for the first time in the club’s history with a nine point upset over Geelong, as they held the Cast goalless in an impressive performance.
Adelaide are 8-1 this season, and have the number one ranked defence in the league, conceding just 19 points per game. The Saints are the lowest scoring team in the league, scoring just 22 points per game this season. The Saints just don’t have the scoring power to challenge Adelaide across four quarters.
The gap in experience between these two sides is massive and the senior bodies in the Crows midfield could get a hold of the young Saints. If St Kilda can’t win the ball out of the centre, they’re going to struggle to take the ball from end to end to score against a star studded Adelaide defence. With a week off to begin the finals guaranteed, expect Adelaide to leave nothing in the tank in this clash. They’ll get past St Kilda with ease.
Tip: Adelaide, Odds Will Be Posted When Available.
Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane
Sunday 3:10pm AEDT, Mars Stadium
A ten goal win over the Eagles has kept the Bulldogs faint finals hopes alive, but they’ll need a lot to go right to jump into sixth place. The Dogs will need Richmond to beat Collingwood on Saturday, then the Dogs will need to knock off the reigning premiers who have won seven of their last eight games. Brisbane come into this clash after a 36 point win over North Melbourne, as the Lions once again dominated in attack.
A win for the Lions will secure a home Qualifying Final, and if the Demons lose on Saturday night there’s a chance the Lions could finish in second and secure a Preliminary Final berth. Brisbane have won three of their last four games, with the three victories coming by margins of 69, 74 and 36 points.
The attacking firepower Brisbane possess is going to be a nightmare for the Bulldogs to try and go toe to toe with. The Lions have kicked 36 goals across their last four games, for comparison, the Bulldogs have kicked 44 goals for the entire season. With Brisbane pushing for a top two finish, they’ll be too strong for the Western Bulldogs.
Fremantle vs Gold Coast Suns
Sunday 5:10pm AEDT, Fremantle Oval
The final game of the home & away season takes place at Fremantle Oval on Sunday evening as the Suns take on the Dockers. Two consecutive losses - including the biggest defeat in AFLW history, will have caused plenty of soul searching for the Dockers who have had their premiership aspirations take a serious hit. The Dockers could still host a Qualifying Final if they pick up a big win over the Gold Coast, as Fremantle sit three percentage behind North Melbourne.
The Dockers had no luck last week with Emma O'Driscoll, Ebony Antonio and Kara Antonio all forced out of the clash against Melbourne due to health and safety protocols. Fremantle will have the trio available for selection this weekend. Gold Coast are winless from their last four games, and have watched their finals hopes fade away in a disappointing finish to the season.
Fremantle will be full of confidence coming into this clash given their recent record against the Suns. The Dockers are 2-0 against the Suns, with wins by 70 and 49 points, with the Suns only kicking one goal in each game against Fremantle. With the Dockers looking to bounce back with a full strength squad, expect a massive response from Fremantle.
