It’s a late start for the first game on Saturday football, with the Dockers hosting Hawthorn at Optus Stadium from 4:10pm AEST. Fremantle are on a roll after knocking off the top two sides in the last two weeks, while the Hawks will be looking to end a two game losing streak.
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Fremantle vs Hawthorn Preview & Betting Tips
Optus Stadium, Saturday 11th June, 4:10pm AEST
Fremantle
Injuries: Jye Amiss, Heath Chapman, Joel Western, Nathan O’Driscoll, Matt Taberner
It’s promising news on the injury front for Fremantle, with Nat Fyfe, Michael Walters and Sam Switkowski returning to stack up a Dockers side that has beaten Melbourne and Brisbane in the last two weeks. Michael Frederick will be unavailable through a club imposed suspension after drinking on a six day break, while Heath Chapman (hamstring) and Matt Taberner (back) will remain on the sidelines.
The Dockers credentials were being questioned after losses to Gold Coast and Collingwood, however with wins against the Demons and Lions in the last fortnight, Fremantle have well and truly proven their status as premiership contenders. Andrew Brayshaw (39 disposals, 16 contested possessions, 9 clearances), Caleb Serong (31 disposals) and Will Brodie (25 disposals & 10 clearances) were the difference in the second half, as Fremantle gained the upper hand in the centre of the ground. The Dockers have excellent variety in their midfield which makes them such a hard team to play against, with the amount of players they can throw into the middle of the ground.
Fremantle are the number two ranked defence in the AFL this season, conceding just 62 points per game. With Hawthorn missing their two best key forwards in Jack Gunston and Mitch Lewis, Fremantle will be confident they can stifle the Hawks ability to score.
Hawthorn
Injuries: Jack Gunston, Tyler Brockman, Emerson Jeka, Ben McEvoy, Tom Phillips
It’s been a tough week at selection for Hawthorn, with their forward stocks having taken a major hit with Jack Gunston (ankle) and Mitch Lewis (knee) suffering injuries against Collingwood. Jarman Impey has been managed and Connor MacDonald has been omitted.
It was a tale of two halves for Hawthorn in a four point loss against Collingwood in Round Twelve. The Hawks trailed by 30 points during the second quarter, before a six goal to one run saw Hawthorn up by 10 points in the fourth quarter. The Pies kicked the last two goals of the game to get across the line, in a performance that somewhat summed up the Hawks season. Hawthorn’s midfield was annihilated in the first half, and they had no ability to move the ball with any fluency to give their forwards consistent opportunities. In the second half the Hawks dominated clearances, and gave themselves plenty of opportunities to win the game, which they probably should have.
It will be interesting to see what tactical adjustments Sam Mitchell comes up with at the defensive end of the ground in this game. The Hawks have put up some spirited performances against top eight teams this season, and they will be looking to turn this game into a low scoring encounter given their lack of potency up forward.
Match Prediction
There’s no value in the H2H market and with the line at -38.5 a half provides some risk. Hawthorn are 2-5 against top eight teams, however three of the five losses have come under 24 points and the average losing margin across all those defeats being 28 points. Given the Hawks lack of height in their forwardline, Sam Mitchell will be looking to make this a low scoring scrap. Fremantle ranks 12th in the AFL for points per game (81), which is surprisingly worse than Hawthorn (83 points per game, ranked 11th).
Fremantle aren’t in any danger of losing this game given the gap in talent, however Hawthorn have shown this season they bring their best against the better teams in the competition. The 1-39 market is the way to go in this clash, with Fremantle having an average winning margin of 34 points in 2022. The Dockers will be too good for Hawthorn in this match.
Fremantle 1-39
$2.25 (1.5 Units)
Prop Bets
Andrew Brayshaw continued his stunning season with a 39 disposal performance against the Lions last weekend, and ranks fifth in the AFL for disposals this season. Brayshaw is averaging 31 disposals per game in the last six weeks and the Hawks are ranked 12th for disposals against, meaning there will be plenty of opportunities for Brayshaw to win the footy.
Andrew Brayshaw 30+ Disposals, $1.67 with Ladbrokes
Eight of Fremantle’s twelve games has seen the total points hit under 154 points and coming up against a Hawthorn side that will be looking to make this a slow paced game to counter their deficiencies in the attacking half. Hawthorn have averaged just 80 points a game over the last seven weeks, and are going to find it tough to score without Gunston and Lewis against an elite Fremantle defence.
Total Points Under 153.5, $1.88 with Ladbrokes
Rory Lobb has played his best two games of the season in the last two weeks, with 3 goals, 9 marks and 15 disposals against Melbourne followed up by a 3 goal, 6 mark performance against Brisbane. Lobb is averaging two goals per game at Optus Stadium this season and kicked four goals the last time these two sides met.
Rory Lobb 3+ Goals, $2.10 with Ladbrokes
