An entertaining Round 17 is in the books with Geelong now sitting on top of the table, while at the other end of the standings, North Melbourne will have a new coach, despite one of their best performances of the season. Collingwood and Gold Coast unleashed incredible comebacks while 12 teams are still in contention to make finals!
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 17 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 17 Overview
Andrew Brayshaw is now sitting right behind Lachie Neale on our 2022 Brownlow Leaderboard after another best-on-ground performance in the Dockers win over the Saints. Brayshaw is now the $3.40 favourite in the Brownlow betting market. Most of the other contenders won't be in the votes, so this is the round that Brayshaw may cause a stir on Brownlow night. The other youngster on the rise is Connor Rozee who was superb once again for the Power. He might not be in contention to win but he's now well entrenched in the Top 10 so look for those Brownlow betting markets when they are released! Another young gun to watch for next season is Luke Davies-Uniacke who was superb for the Roos this round.
AFL Round 17 Brownlow Votes
Geelong 12.19.91 def Melbourne 9.9.63
It was a cracking start to the round with a top-of-the-table clash, but it was the Cats who upset the premiers to move to the top of the ladder. Mitch Duncan was sublime with 32 disposals, 11 marks and 2 goals, with great support from Patrick Dangerfield (31 disposals, 9 clearances), Cam Guthrie (28 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances, 2 goals) and Tom Atkins (21 disposals, 9 tackles, 9 clearances, 1 goal) as the Cats engine room got the better of their opponents. Jack Viney (35 disposals, 7 tackles) continued his good form while Clayton Oliver (34 disposals, 10 disposals, 1 goal) and Christian Petracca (21 disposals, 3 goals) were good contributors but they didn’t get enough support.
Mitch Duncan - 3
Patrick Dangerfield - 2
Tom Atkins - 0.5
Cam Guthrie - 0.5
Sydney 17.18.120 def Western Bulldogs 9.13.67
The Swans were far too good for the Bulldogs who are on the verge of missing finals completely after being in the Grand Final last season. Tom Papley was electric with 24 disposals, including 17 score involvements, and 2 goals, while Sam Reid stepped up in the ruck after injury to Peter Ladhams to amass 15 disposals, 13 tackles, 25 hitouts and 7 clearances. The Swans’ pressure was immense with Callum Mills landing 16 tackles, as well as 23 disposals and a goal, with support in the middle from Chad Warner (25 disposals, 2 goals). Paddy McCartin was also excellent in the backline with 22 disposals and 14 marks. Adam Treloar was the best for the Dogs with 32 disposals.
Tom Papley - 3
Sam Reid - 2
Chad Warner - 0.5
Paddy McCartin - 0.5
Collingwood 13.10.88 def North Melbourne 12.9.81
It was their best showing of the season, but the Roos blew a 28-point lead as the Pies avoided embarrassment and escaped the G with the valuable four premiership points. Taylor Adams (28 disposals, 6 clearances), Josh Daicos (28 disposals, 1 goal) and Jamie Elliott (20 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) were best for the Pies, however the best players on field were arguably from their opposition. Luke Davies-Uniacke was outstanding with 33 disposals, 11 tackles and a massive 12 clearances, while Jed Anderson (33 disposals, 9 marks, 7 tackles, 6 clearances) and Nick Larkey (19 disposals, 6 marks, 5 goals) were also excellent in a promising outing for the Roos.
Luke Davies-Uniacke - 3
Jed Anderson - 1
Josh Daicos - 1
Nick Larkey - 1
Gold Coast 14.10.94 def Richmond 13.14.92
In one of the best wins in their history, the Gold Coast Suns pulled their way back from a 40-point deficit with a goal after the siren to Noah Anderson to claim an amazing victory. Anderson was one of their best all day with 26 disposals, 9 marks, 7 tackles, 6 clearances and 2 goals, alongside Touk Miller (27 disposals, 13 clearances, 1 goal) and Ben Ainsworth (26 disposals, 14 marks, 2 goals). However like the previous match, best on ground might go to the losing team with Shai Bolton putting in an unbelievable match with 29 disposals, 8 clearances and 3 goals. Daniel Rioli (31 disposals) was also very good in a gut-wrenching loss for the Tigers’ finals chances.
Shai Bolton - 3
Touk Miller - 1
Ben Ainsworth - 1
Noah Anderson - 1
St.Kilda 10.10.70 def by Fremantle 17.9.111
Another big away win for Freo has them perched nicely in the top 4 while St.Kilda are now under immense pressure to make finals in 2022. Andrew Brayshaw is getting closer to that Brownlow Medal as he picked up 36 disposals, 6 marks, 10 tackles and 1 goal. It’s likely to be another 3 votes which now sees Brayshaw into clear favouritism in the Brownlow betting markets. Jordan Clark (30 disposals) and Will Brodie (29 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goals) were valuable, while dual Brownlow medalist Nat Fyfe was good after half-time to end with 21 disposals and 3 goals. Given Fyfe’s history of polling votes, he’s definitely a chance to grab one here. Brad Crouch (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) was again one of the best for the Saints.
Andrew Brayshaw - 3
Will Brodie - 2
Nat Fyfe - 1
Port Adelaide 12.12.84 def GWS Giants 3.11.29
The Power were far too good for the Giants, and with the teams above them stuttering, they would still be eyeing off an unlikely finals berth. Connor Rozee was superb with 24 disposals, 6 marks and 4 goals, with great support from Zak Butters (26 disposals) and Sam Powell-Pepper (25 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal). Stephen Coniglio (32 disposals, 7 clearances) was a stand out for the Giants.
Connor Rozee - 3
Zak Butters - 2
Sam Powell-Pepper - 1
Brisbane 13.12.90 def by Essendon 15.10.100
The Lions were depleted due to Covid and the Bombers capitalised with their second upset win in a row. Zach Merrett (31 disposals, 8 tackles, 6 clearances) was magnificent in the middle, while Jye Caldwell (26 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal) did a great job keeping Lachie Neale quiet. Kyle Langford (18 disposals, 7 marks, 4 goals) was influential while Jordan Ridley (26 disposals, 10 marks) was a rock in defence. However the difference between the teams was arguably Peter Wright who kicked 5 goals from his 11 disposals and 8 marks. Hugh McLuggage (29 disposals) tried hard on a disappointing day for the Lions.
Peter Wright - 3
Zach Merrett - 2
Jordan Ridley - 1
Hawthorn 13.8.86 def Adelaide 8.6.54
The Hawks snapped a five-game losing streak with a good win over the Crows. Dylan Moore was supreme with 29 disposals, 7 marks, 7 tackles and 5 clearances, while Jai Newcombe (25 disposals, 8 clearances) and James Sicily (23 disposals, 13 marks) were also excellent contributors. The win was set up in the first half by Mitch Lewis who bagged 5 goals from 12 disposals, but he was virtually unsighted in the second half. Rory Laird (42 disposals, 7 tackles), Ben Keays (30 disposals, 6 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Matt Crouch (28 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) continue to win a lot of ball without gaining much meterage for the Crows.
Dylan Moore - 3
Mitch Lewis - 1
James Sicily - 1
Jai Newcombe - 1
West Coast 8.5.53 def by Carlton 17.14.116
In a game of momentum swings, Carlton led by 36 points after a scoreless opening quarter by West Coast before the Eagles worked themselves back into the game. However Carlton piled on the last seven goals of the game to run away with it on the back of five-goal hauls to their twin towers as Charlie Curnow (5 goals, 15 disposals, 8 marks) and Harry McKay (5 goals, 13 disposals, 7 marks) took control. Adam Cerra (27 disposals, 7 marks) enjoyed being back in the West, while George Hewett (26 disposals, 8 clearances) was a beast in the middle. Andrew Gaff (30 disposals, 8 marks) was best for the Eagles.
Charlie Curnow - 3
Harry McKay - 2
Adam Cerra - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
