One of the best rounds of the last decade saw the top eight and the bottom eight play against each other and it produced some cracking matches in Round 15. Geelong and Richmond was one of the best matches in recent memory, while Gold Coast pushed Port all the way in Adelaide. At the top of the ladder, Melbourne reaffirmed themselves as the team to beat as they destroyed Brisbane, while the Saints are on the ropes after Sydney were too strong.
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 15 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 15 Overview
Sam Walsh was the star of Round 15 with a superb performance in a big win over Fremantle. Walsh was clearly best afield as he closes the gap with the Brownlow leaders, including teammate Patrick Cripps! Most of the other contenders won't be in the votes, with perhaps Connor Rozee the most interesting outsider. We have him polling the three votes to climb into our Top 20. With Butters out and Port winning, perhaps Rozee is one to keep an eye on!
AFL Round 15 Brownlow Votes
Melbourne 16.21.117 def Brisbane 7.11.53
It was a top-of-the-table clash but the Demons absolutely smashed the Lions in brutal fashion to confirm their place as premiership favourites. Jack Viney was sensational with 34 disposals, 7 tackles and 8 clearances to lead the way, while Christian Petracca (31 disposals, 6 marks, 8 clearances) and Clayton Oliver (35 disposals,12 clearances) were prolific without necessarily dominating. Jake Lever had 15 intercepts amongst his 20 disposals and 8 marks down back to be one of the Demons best. Hugh McLuggage (27 disposals, 6 marks, 10 tackles) was tireless for the Lions on a disappointing evening.
Jack Viney - 3
Jake Lever - 2
Hugh McLuggage - 0.5
Christian Petracca - 0.5
Western Bulldogs 19.11.125 def Hawthorn 12.11.83
The Hawks were up and about early but the Dogs piled on the goals to run away with a comfortable victory. Tom Liberatore (30 disposals, including 16 contested, 8 tackles, 11 clearances, 1 goal) was magnificent in the middle, while Marcus Bontempelli (26 disposals, 7 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) was back to some of his best form. Up forward, it was Rhylee West who played his best career game with 19 disposals, 5 tackles and 3 goals. For the Hawks, Mitch Lewis (4 goals, 15 disposals, 9 marks) provided a great target, while Jack Scrimshaw (26 disposals, 12 marks) was kept busy in defence.
Tom Liberatore - 3
Marcus Bontempelli - 2
Mitch Lewis - 1
West Coast 16.11.107 def Essendon 14.13.97
The Eagles are off the bottom of the ladder with a win at home against the struggling Bombers. Josh Kennedy was the difference up forward with 5 goals from 12 disposals, and was supported by Willie Rioli (19 disposals, 3 goals). Jack Redden (22 disposals, 6 marks) was good in the middle while Elliot Yeo (20 disposals, 8 marks) provided drive from the backline. Dylan Shiel (26 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances) and Nic Martin (20 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals) were best for the Dons.
Josh Kennedy - 2.5
Elliot Yeo - 2.5
Willie Rioli - 0.5
Dylan Shiel - 0.5
Carlton 12.9.81 def Fremantle 7.8.50
The Blues are back in the premiership discussions as they knocked over the fancied Dockers. Sam Walsh was amazing with 40 disposals, including 13 contested and 11 inside 50s, 6 marks and 7 clearances, in a dominant performance. Sam Docherty (30 disposals, 14 marks) and Zac Fisher (29 disposals, 7 marks) were among the chief ball winners, while Charlie Curnow continued his great season up forward with 4 goals from 10 disposals. Will Brodie was huge for the Dockers with 36 disposals, 6 tackles, but didn’t get a lot of support.
Sam Walsh - 3
Will Brodie - 2
Sam Docherty - 1
Geelong 13.11.89 def Richmond 13.8.86
In a contender for match of the year, the Cats blew a 35-point lead, before the Tigers gave up a 17-point advantage as the Cats pinched an amazing victory. Cam Guthrie (28 disposals, 6 tackles) was relentless in the middle, while Tyson Stengle (18 disposals, 6 tackles, 3 goals) arguably was the match winner in the last quarter. Tom Stewart will be enjoying a holiday for his hit on Dion Prestia, but he responded well to collect 29 disposals and 6 marks. Toby Nankervis (22 disposals, 25 hitouts, 5 tackles, 5 clearances), Liam Baker (24 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Nick Vlastuin (24 disposals, 12 marks) were best for the Tigers.
Tyson Stengle - 2
Tom Stewart - 2
Toby Nankervis - 1
Liam Baker - 1
Sydney 12.11.83 def St.Kilda 4.8.32
Sydney were far too strong for a struggling St.Kilda who are quickly slipping out of the finals calculations. Jake Lloyd (39 disposals, 9 marks), Nick Blakey (31 disposals) and Oli Florent (27 disposals, 12 marks, 1 goal) patrolled the half-back line to setup the victory. Seb Ross (31 disposals, 9 marks, 8 tackles) was busy while Rohan Marshall (23 disposals, 7 marks, 39 hitouts) enjoyed the solo ruck duties.
Jake Lloyd - 2.5
Nick Blakey - 2.5
Seb Ross - 1
North Melbourne 8.10.58 def by Adelaide 17.13.115
The Kangaroos would’ve been hopeful of pushing the Crows in Hobart but they were smashed once again and surely David Noble’s position as coach is now beyond salvage. Rory Laird (34 disposals, 11 tackles, 11 clearances) ran amok in the middle, while Taylor Walker (6 goals, 12 disposals, 7 marks) and Darcy Fogarty (4 goals, 20 disposals, 8 marks) were unstoppable up forward as the clear standouts on the ground. Aaron Hall was best for North with 38 disposals and an AFL record 1,169 metres gained but probably not enough for a vote.
Taylor Walker - 3
Darcy Fogarty - 2
Rory Laird - 1
Collingwood 11.22.88 def GWS Giants 12.5.77
The Pies held off a fast-finishing Giants team to move into the top eight on the AFL ladder. Darcy Cameron (17 disposals, 8 marks, 23 hitouts, 2 goals) put in a complete game, with Brayden Maynard (22 disposals, 9 marks), Will Hoskin-Elliott (23 disposals, 8 marks) and Steele Sidebottom (26 disposals, 1 goal) also amongst the best for the Pies. Stephen Coniglio (31 disposals, 6 marks, 6 tackles, 1 goal) continued his resurgence while Harry Himmelberg (30 disposals, 11 marks) was also influential.
Darcy Cameron - 3
Brayden Marnard - 2
Stephen Coniglio - 1
Port Adelaide 13.15.93 def Gold Coast 13.13.91
It was a great finish to the round with the Suns going all the way with Port who snuck over the line by just two points in a thriller. Dan Houston (30 disposals, 7 marks), Riley Bonner (30 disposals, 8 marks) and Karl Amon (26 disposals, 10 marks, 10 tackles) won plenty of ball for Port but perhaps it was Connor Rozee who was the match-winner with his 24 disposals, 6 clearances and 2 goals. Jarrod Witts (20 disposals, 8 clearances, 41 hitouts) and Ben Ainsworth (22 disposals, 7 marks, 6 tackles, 1 goal) were best for the Suns.
Connor Rozee - 3
Dan Houston - 2
Jarrod Witts - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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