Melbourne’s 17-game winning streak has come to an end at the hands of Fremantle while Collingwood halted the momentum of Carlton in a classic showdown at the G in the highlights of Round 11 action. As we head into the bye rounds, there will be a few teams happy to nurse some injured and sore players, before making a run towards the finals in the second half of the 2022 AFL season.
Once again we bring you our analysis and AFL Round 11 Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the round below!
And for the updated rolling leaderboard, head to our 2022 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
AFL Brownlow Round 11 Overview
Lachie Neale is now into favouritism in the 2022 Brownlow Medal race, and the outright lead on our Brownlow leaderboard, after another superb performance in a Brisbane victory. Just as importantly, his main rivals didn’t have the best games.
Patrick Cripps won’t poll votes in Round 11, while Christian Petracca had the worst statistical game of his career. The interesting one might be Clayton Oliver - he had 24 disposals in a half against Freo, but was held quiet in the second half as Melbourne lost, so it will be interesting to see if he can jag important votes - we've projected him to miss. Sam Walsh, Jack Crisp, Darcy Parish and Andrew Brayshaw are others who may pick up some useful Brownlow votes in Round 11 action to climb the Brownlow leaderboard.
AFL Round 11 Brownlow Votes
Sydney 16.10.106 def Richmond 15.10.100
A cracking Friday night contest, for the second week in a row, as the Swans held on against the Tigers. It was the “Buddy Show” as Lance Franklin won the Goodes-O’Loughlin Medal for best afield for his 5 goals from 10 disposals and 5 marks in an electric performance. Chad Warner (27 disposals, 6 clearances) and Luke Parker (26 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) were next best for the Swans. Liam Baker (22 disposals) and Toby Nankervis (21 disposals, 9 tackles, 24 hitouts, 6 clearances) tried hard for the Tigers.
Lance Franklin - 3
Chad Warner - 2
Luke Parker - 1
Brisbane 16.14.110 def GWS Giants 15.6.96
The Lions were slow out of the blocks but eventually flexed their muscle to get over the line against the Giants. Lachie Neale is into Brownlow Medal favouritism after his 39 disposals, 6 tackles, 9 clearances and 2 goals which should net him another 3 Brownlow votes. Jarrod Berry (33 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) and Cam Rayner (25 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) had their best games of the year for the Lions. Josh Kelly (31 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goals), Harry Himmelberg (21 disposals, 7 marks) and Toby Greene (15 disposals, 4 goals) were influential for the Giants.
Lachie Neale - 3
Jarrod Berry - 2
Josh Kelly - 1
Geelong 15.7.97 def Adelaide 7.13.55
The Cats recorded a healthy win over the Crows and there were several big performances in this one. Tom Stewart should get the 3 Brownlow votes for his 40 disposals, 16 marks and 874 metres gained. Cam Guthrie (34 disposals, 8 tackles, 7 clearances) also won plenty of ball while Jeremy Cameron (12 disposals, 4 goals) and Gryan Miers (20 disposals, 6 tackles, 3 goals) hit the scoreboard. Reilly O’Brien put in a monster statistical game with 47 hitouts, 28 disposals, 7 tackles and 9 clearances, while Rory Laird (38 disposals, 8 tackles, 14 clearances) was also busy.
Tom Stewart - 3
Cam Guthrie - 2
Reilly O’Brien - 0.5
Jeremy Cameron - 0.5
Melbourne 7.14.56 def by Fremantle 14.10.94
The streak is over! In a huge upset, Fremantle inflicted the first loss of the season for Melbourne to wake up the entire 2022 AFL season. The Dees led by 25 points at half time, but losing Steven May to injury was crucial as the Dockers ran over them in the second half. Luke Ryan (29 disposals, 14 marks) was a rock at half-back, while Andrew Brayshaw (28 disposals, 6 clearances) and Will Brodie (28 disposals, 7 clearances) were effective in the midfield. Sean Darcy (16 disposals, 32 hitouts, 1 goal) won the ruck battle with Max Gawn, while Lachie Schultz (18 disposals, 4 goals) and Rory Lobb (15 disposals, 9 marks, 3 goals) were a handful up forward. Clayton Oliver was on fire in the first half but was well held in the end to finish with 36 disposals, while Christian Petraca was virtually unsighted all day. An interesting one for Brownlow voting.
Luke Ryan - 3
Andrew Brayshaw - 2
Lachie Schultz - 0.5
Rory Lobb - 0.5
West Coast 9.6.60 def by Western Bulldogs 25.11.161
A massive win by the Bulldogs came as no surprise as the Eagles continue to struggle in season 2022. The Dogs welcomed back Tim English from illness and he was enormous with 25 disposals, 28 hitouts, 7 clearances and a goal in a best-on-ground effort. Adam Treloar (35 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal), Josh Dunkley (25 disposals, 12 marks, 7 tackles, 2 goals) and Bailey Williams (23 disposals, 2 goals) were next best. Tim Kelly (38 disposals, 11 clearances, 1 goal) didn’t stop trying for the Eagles.
Tim English - 3
Adam Treloar - 2
Josh Dunkley - 1
Gold Coast 18.13.121 def Hawthorn 7.12.54
The Suns are looming as a finals contender as they smashed the Hawks up in Darwin. Brandon Ellis (24 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles, 2 goals), Lachie Weller (27 disposals, 1 goal) and Touk Miller (24 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) were busy for the Suns while Jarrod Witts (34 hitouts, 18 disposals, 9 clearances) dominated in the ruck. Tom Mitchell (29 disposals, 6 tackles) was best for the Hawks.
Brandon Ellis - 3
Jarrod Witts - 1.5
Lachie Weller - 1.5
St.Kilda 16.7.103 def North Melbourne 7.8.50
The Saints smashed the lowly Kangaroos with winners all over the ground. Jack Sinclair (32 disposals, 10 marks), Brad Hill (33 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal), Jade Gresham (30 disposals, 7 clearances, 2 goals) and Seb Ross (28 disposals, 1 goal) are likely to be battling it out for the Brownlow votes. Jed Anderson (28 disposals, 8 marks, 12 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) might be the best chance of grabbing a vote for the Roos.
Jack Sinclair - 2
Brad Hill - 2
Jade Gresham - 2
Collingwood 11.13.79 def Carlton 11.9.75
A classic contest between two traditional rivals in front of 80,000 people at the G. This is what AFL is all about. The Pies got a narrow win with Jack Crisp (27 disposals, 6 tackles), Josh Daicos (23 disposals, 10 marks), Jordan De Goey (24 disposals, 1 goal) and Darcy Cameron (13 disposals, 6 tackles, 26 hitouts) among their best. The Blues might be in the votes however with Sam Walsh (35 disposals, 1 goal) and Adam Cerra (30 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) having big games.
Jack Crisp - 3
Sam Walsh - 2
Josh Daicos - 0.5
Adam Cerra - 0.5
Port Adelaide 9.12.66 def Essendon 6.14.50
The Power bounced out to an early lead, and despite Essendon improving in wet conditions in the second half, Port held on for the win. Connor Rozee (24 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal), Ollie Wines (29 disposals) and Zak Butters (24 disposals, 1 goal) were the leading players for the Power. Darcy Parish (39 disposals, 7 clearances) continued his remarkable run of ball accumulation, while Nic Martin (25 disposals, 12 marks, 1 goal) had a sensational game and must shorten in betting for the AFL Rising Star award.
Connor Rozee - 3
Darcy Parish - 2
Nic Martin - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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