Our tennis guru Ace is back again this Monday night with a preview and betting tips for the WTA event from Linz in Austria. This Monday night, he focuses in on the Round 1 clash between Rebecca Peterson and Harmony Tan.
Tuesday November 8th, 12.30am (AEDT)
I think the qualifying form of Harmony Tan coming into this one has been a touch overvalued, as she takes on Rebecca Peterson in the first round of WTA Linz.
Whilst it can be a little tricky at times to gauge the ITF level form with that of WTA level form, I do feel there is a gap in level over a large enough sample size to jump into Peterson at the minus game handicap here. I have written in a couple of my other previews that my interest late in the season is being very picky in terms of the types of players that I am looking to support. Peterson fits the mould. It has been a largely disappointing year for the Swede, as her season got off to an underwhelming start, with her only major highlight early in the season a QF in the Phillip Island Trophy, held well the big names were still contesting the Australian Open.
She was able to find a level closer to her best through SF appearances in Chicago and Nur Sultan either side of the US Open, before it became apparent that to maintain a level of comfort in her ranking allowing main draw access to the Australian Open, the Swede may need to drop back to the ITF level for one week. It worked perfectly for Peterson, dropping 18 games across 5 matches to claim the Rancho Santa Fe title. She continued her winning ways in Cluj-Napoca, making her way to the semi final where she lost to the in-form woman on the WTA tour in Anett Kontaveit. I have been waiting for that confidence shift from Peterson, and this looks to be a great spot.
Tan is certainly on her way to the Top 100, currently sitting at a career high 109. She has put together a 16-4 run at ITF level since the US Open, however only 3 of those wins came against players in the Top 300. The wins in qualifying over Kucova and Krunic are solid, however neither have displayed a level of form on the indoor hards to match a level close to that of Peterson, who is the third highest ranked opponent for Tan on hards in the last 12 months. In fact, Tan sits at 0-7 on all hardcourts against players ranked in the Top 100 for her career. With Peterson showing her most consistent level recently on the indoor hards, it will be tough for her to back up her qualifying form with another win.
Tan is making improvements in her game, however I would be wanting another 1 to 1.5 games on the handicap here to be enticed into siding with her. With Peterson’s improved form in recent months, I am happy to take the -3 game handicap here for 1 unit.
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