2021 NRL Round 4: Friday Preview & Betting Tips

April 1st 2021, 12:20pm, By: Scooby

NRL Round 4 Friday Betting Tips

NRL Fans are in for a great afternoon/evening of action that they will hopefully enjoy on their day off. While on paper it appears as though both matches are forgone conclusions, plenty of questions still remain unanswered about the 4-teams involved. Strange things can also happen when teams are expected to dominate. Let’s take a closer look at whether or not this will be the case here. Don’t forget, the first game kicks off at 4pm.

NRL Round 4 Friday Betting Tips

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Stadium Australia, Friday 4.05pm (AEDT)

The Bulldogs season went from bad to worse last week, suffering a harrowing 24-nil loss to the Broncos on the road. It was the second consecutive week that they were kept scoreless and left many asking how much more was to be done in this rebuild. With just 47% possession, the Bulldogs completed at 75%, but it wasn’t errors (total 9) which hampered them; rather, it was their inability to create attacking chances and stop the momentum of their opponents. At the end of 80 minutes, they had just 1 line break, 14 tackle breaks and 39 missed tackles. The task this week doesn’t get any easier, with the Rabbitohs on a 2-game winning streak. Their most recent effort was a satisfying 26-16 victory over their bitter rivals, the Roosters. The match was all but over 5-minutes into the second half as they jumped to a 24-nil lead. A small fightback from their opponents only flattered them as the Rabbitohs were in control for entire contest. While injuries didn’t help the Roosters, the Rabbitohs amassed 543 post-contact metres, 4 line breaks and 27 tackle breaks; all the while, only missing 20 tackles. It was a reminder just what this team is capable of and a warning that they should not be forgotten.

The Stats

Head-to-Head = Bulldogs 23 Draw 1 Rabbitohs 16

At Stadium Australia = Bulldogs 55% Rabbitohs 56%

Past 10 matches = Bulldogs 4 Rabbitohs 6 – average winning margin is 15.7 points for the Bulldogs and 13 points for the Rabbitohs. 4 out of the past 10 matches have been decided by 10 points or less.

Verdict

Given the form of both sides, deciding on a winner should be fairly straight forward. Based on their opening 3 matches, the Bulldogs do not have what it takes to produce an upset. Despite always lifting for this encounter, a lot more will have to change within their side if they are to win this match. The 21.5-point margin almost isn’t enough as the Rabbitohs have dominant attacking weapons across the field. You also have a team averaging 23.3 ppg (Rabbitohs) against one with an average of just 5.3 ppg (Bulldogs). This suggests the Bulldogs should be able to cover the line but scoring points is hard to come by for them. If they allowed 24 last week against the Broncos, there is no telling what total can be scored here. The only risk would be the Rabbitohs allowing soft tries towards the end of the match. Then again, if they want to be taken as a contender this season, they will need to comprehensively beat the Bulldogs and not allow that to happen.


Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos

AAMI Park, Friday 8.05pm (AEDT)

You could’ve got a great price at the start of the season that the Broncos would be ahead of the Storm on the competition ladder by the time this match was played. If you have watched any of the opening 3-matches they have played, this is highly unfair against the Storm. Last week, they suffered a 12-10 loss to the Panthers on the road. With the game on the line in the dying stages, the Storm were unable to prevail and were held out by some desperate Panthers defence. The statistics were evenly matched between the two sides in possession (53% Storm), completion rate (78% Panthers – 76% Storm), line breaks (4 each) and errors (11 each) being close; as coach Bellamy stated at fulltime, the Panthers won the ‘deciding moments’ over 80 minutes. The Storm had 36 missed tackles though, an uncharacteristic effort from a usually disciplined side. Traveling home and welcoming injured players back will ensure an improved effort on last week. The Broncos captured their first win of the season (and first since Round 9, 2020) against a struggling Bulldogs outfit. In a dour match which took 58 minutes to produce its first try, the Broncos closed out the match well in the final 20 minutes to prevail 24-nil. It would be pleasing that they gave themselves every chance of performing well with an 82% completion rate which eventually wore their opponents down. They can also take confidence from their 720 post-contact metres, 39 tackle breaks, 6 line breaks and 14 missed tackles. The challenge, albeit a big one ahead of them this week, is to produce a similar effort against a leading team in the competition.

The Stats

Head-to-Head = Storm 34 Draw 1 Broncos 13

At AAMI Park = Storm 74% Broncos 27%

Past 10 matches = Storm 9 Broncos 1 – average winning margin is 24.2 points for the Storm and 10 points for the Broncos. Only 2 of the Storms victories have been by 10 points or less.

Verdict

Much like the earlier match, this game is almost a forgone conclusion. The recent form of both teams points towards the Storm and it is hard to see the Broncos overcoming that, let alone their horrible record at this ground (just 3 wins in 11 matches here). Interestingly, the Broncos average more points this year than the Storm and concede slightly more (15 v 17 per game). Then again, this is the first ‘quality’ team they have faced apart from the Eels; in the opening game they were a team that was hyped for the occasion and that form can be questioned somewhat. Deciding on how much the Storm win this match by is easy. They have broken down some of the best defensive structures in the opening 3 weeks of the competition and, while not scoring many points, will relish the extra opportunity here against the Broncos. Expect a free-flowing match which has the home team dominating the middle, continually moving over the advantage line and swinging the ball wide to finish expansive attacking movements.


TIPS

2020-21 NBA Betting Tips: Sunday 11th April

The exciting NBA season continues on Sunday with another juicy seven-game slate. Catch our best spread and player prop bets for the value games right here! read more

2021 AFL Round 4: Melbourne vs Geelong Preview & Betting Tips

Round 4 of the 2021 AFL season continues on Sunday with three games on the cards. Here, we take a look at the second game of the day which sees Melbourne host Geelong at the MCG. Catch our match prediction and player props for this huge clash right here! read more

2021 AFL Round 4: Fremantle vs Hawthorn Preview & Betting Tips

We look to round out out the third week of the 2021 AFL season with a clash over in the West, with Fremantle hosting Hawthorn. Both sides will be desperate to get their second win of the season in what looks to be a closely fought match. read more

2021 AFL Round 4: North Melbourne vs Adelaide Preview & Betting Tips

After an embarrassing performance on Good Friday, North Melbourne get an opportunity to redeem themselves when they host Adelaide on Sunday afternoon at Marvel Stadium. We have a dedicated preview and betting tips for the clash here read more

ARTICLES

Best Australian Sports Betting Sites

The best Australian sports betting sites ensure safe and successful online betting for punters. Here's our list of the best sports betting options in Australia. read more


Performance Ratings & Pricing with Julian Vallance with Sportsbet

Julian Vallance from Sportsbet takes us through some of the key factors which he uses with pricing upcoming horse races such as performance ratings. Check out his video from Sportsbet here. read more


What is Over-Round and How do Sportsbooks Make Money?

Over-Round is an important concept for both punters and sportsbooks. It's how Australian sportsbooks make money! All punters should understand over-round, how to spot it, and how to find better value on the Betfair Exchange. read more


Betfair Commissions and Charges

Ever wondered why you can get such great odds at Betfair in comparison to other online bookmakers? We break down why that is the case and why Betfair isn't just for professional punters here read more


BLOGS

2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Votes Round 3

The extended weekend of football over the Easter weekend brought some entertaining matches and some surprise results with Sydney and Melbourne both undefeated after three rounds of action. Check out who the star performers were with our Round 3 Brownlow vote predictions. read more


2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Votes Round 2

Round 2 of the 2021 AFL season produced a couple of thrilling finishes and the cream is rising to the top early on the Brownlow Medal leaderboard. Check out our analysis and Brownlow vote predictions for Round 2 of the season here. read more


2021 AFL Brownlow Medal Votes Round 1

The first round of the 2021 AFL season is in the books with some stellar performances to start the season which will be sure to attract the eye of the umpires. Who will get the Round 1 Brownlow votes? Every week we'll have analysis and Brownlow vote predictions for every match of the 2021 season. read more


2021 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard

Once again the BYB team are bringing you comprehensive coverage of the 2021 Brownlow Medal, with round-by-round analysis and Brownlow vote predictions for every match, as well as our 2021 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard tracker. Click here for access to our Brownlow Medal content for free! read more


BetDeluxe

PlayUp