The marquee game of the AFL Super Saturday slate sees Brisbane hosting Essendon at the Gabba from 7.25pm! As usual, PuntingInDanger has broken down the game in full and he provides his best bets for the clash below.
AFL Brisbane vs Essendon Betting Tips
Gabba, Saturday 7.25pm (AEST)
Both the Swans and Lions will be looking to bounce back from disappointing losses to top sides in Round 4. Both currently have just 1-3 records and although it’s only Round 5, this game has the feeling of monumental importance.
The Bombers travelled to Sydney in Round 4 to take on the undefeated Swans and they put up a hell of a fight. They led the game at times throughout the fourth quarter but ultimately the Swans proved to be marginally too strong, claiming a three point win at the SCG. Although it was a loss, it seemed like certification for the Bombers, who are clearly a better side than many experts predicted them to be in the pre-season.
The Lions have proven the opposite so far this season. A lot of pundits were picking it to be Brisbane’s year after finishing 2nd on the ladder last season and reaching their first preliminary final since all the way back in 2004. So far this season, however, they are just 1-3 albeit with losses to some pretty strong sides in Sydney, Geelong and the Western Bulldogs.
On the injury front, the Bombers will still be without midfielders Jye Caldwell and Dylan Shiell, they should get Mason Redman back from a hamstring injury this week though. The Lions still have one of the best injury lists in the league. Only Connor McFadyen and Cam Rayner are out of their potential best 22 this week, with Dan McStay hopeful to return from a knee injury.
24.5 points, that’s the price you have to pay if you fancy the Lions at home on Saturday night. Personally, I think that’s too high. The Bombers have been extremely competitive this season, going down by a combined four points in two of their three losses. They play an attacking style of footy that should result in 85+ points, so for the Lions to cover the 24.5 point line they are going to have to score a lot, which is something they haven’t done this year, averaging just 75 points per game.
Bombers +24.5 (1.5 Units)
I think we might have reached a tipping point where it has now become value to bet on Lachie Neale again. The star midfielder has had a horror start to the season, averaging just 22.0 touches per game, far less than he did in shortened quarters last season. Neale has absolutely torched the Bombers in his last four games against them, racking up numbers of 33, 40, 30 and 28 including booting two goals for three Brownlow votes last season. After some heavy criticism over his form through the week, back the star to bounce back here.
We jumped on the Darcy Parish train at the exact right stop a few weeks ago, loading up on him to have a big game against the Saints in the absence of Shiel and Caldwell. Well those two remain on the sidelines and against the Swans on the weekend, Parish was solid with another 25 touches. Combine him with Merrett to each have 25+, who hasn’t dipped below 27 in four games and you have a healthy $1.93 SGM.
Parish, Merrett 25+ Disp.