One of football’s greatest rivalries adds a new chapter on Sunday afternoon as Collingwood take on Carlton at the MCG. The Pies are riding high off the back of a shock win over the Tigers, and will be looking to put a nail in the coffin of Carlton’s slim finals hopes. We’ve got you covered with AFL tips and preview for a huge Sunday afternoon clash right here!
AFL Collingwood vs Carlton Betting Tips
MCG, Sunday July 18th, 3:20pm AEST
Match Prediction
A seven goal to one final quarter propelled Collingwood to their first win under Robert Harvey, as they stormed over Richmond in a 16-point win. Carlton missed a massive opportunity to finally beat a top eight side, as they kicked 5.14 in a 26-point loss against Geelong. A win could’ve moved Carlton within a game of the top eight, but they’re now anchored in 12th place on the ladder.
This matchup shapes as a big contrast between attack and defence. Carlton play an all out aggressive brand with ball in hand, but leak points heavily going the other way, conceding the fourth most points in the competition (88.8 per game). The Pies on the other hand play slow, conservative football, with a heavy focus on being hard to score against. The Pies rank in the top eight for least points conceded with 77.7 per game.
Collingwood have produced two huge fourth quarters in the last two weeks. In round 16 against St Kilda the Pies scored five goals to none, then scored seven goals to one in the final term last week against the Tigers. The Pies do enough to stay in the game in the opening three quarters, before their match winners like Taylor Adams, Brodie Grundy and Jamie Elliott take over late in games. Collingwood’s ability to run out games could be a huge advantage in this clash, with Carlton winning just one fourth quarter in their last six matches.
Liam Jones will return from injury, but that inclusion is offset by the omission of Patrick Cripps who has battled injury all season.
Another massive advantage for the Pies is Brodie Grundy who was enormous last week with 40 hitouts, 22 disposals, 5 marks, 3 clearances and 1 goal. He took advantage of his matchup against the inexperienced Mabior Chol, and he gets another crack at a youngster when he lines up against Tom De Koning this week. Grundy gave Collingwood complete clearance dominance against the reigning premiers last week, especially in the fourth quarter from centre clearances. If the Pies can win the battle in the centre, they will put this struggling Carlton defence under a lot of pressure.
Collingwood have won six of the last seven meetings between the two sides, with those six victories coming at an average winning margin of 20 points. The Pies have the wood over their arch rivals and with the style of footy they play, there won’t be a blowout in this match. Collingwood’s biggest winning margin this season was a 21-point win over the Blues in round 2 this season, so the 1-39 market is excellent value.
Collingwood 1-39 (1 Unit)
$2.30
Same Game Multi
Josh Daicos’ finger injury opened the door for Callum Brown to get extended midfield minutes, and he grabbed that opportunity with both hands. After banging down the door with dominant form at VFL level, Brown racked up 24 disposals and 6 inside 50’s in his AFL return last week, as he attended 17 centre bounces. Sam Walsh once again carried the load for the Blues last week, racking up 36 disposals and 2 goals in another outstanding performance. Walsh is averaging 30 disposals for the season and has gone above the 25 disposal mark in seven of his last eight games, as he looks a lock for his first All Australian selection. Taylor Adams has not missed a beat since returning from injury in round 15, with returns of 32, 34 and 31 disposals in the last three weeks. Adams had 10 clearances and 10 tackles to go along with his 31 disposals as he willed Collingwood over the line last week. Adams has had 25 plus disposals in six of the seven games he has completed this season.
Callum Brown 20+ Disposals
Sam Walsh 25+ Disposals
Taylor Adams 25+
COLL vs CARL Same Game Multi
$2.75
