A fantastic matchup on Thursday night in the AFL this week obviously meant we weren’t going to get another blockbuster on Friday. We’ll grit our teeth and bare it as the Sydney Swans host Hawthorn in the 2nd game of Round 13 from the SCG. Check out our full preview and betting tips for the Friday night clash below.
SCG, Friday 11th June 7.50pm (AEST)
Two old rivals who are now at different ends of the ladder will duke it out on Friday night. So often games between these two teams end in thrillers and we are hoping for the same thing again here.
The Swans had shaky periods against the Saints in Round 12 but managed to scratch out a 9 point in up at the SCG. The forward contingent of Will Hayward, Lance Franklin and Isaac Heeney was firing on all cylinders, booting seven goals between them while stalwart Luke Parker was the pick of the midfielders with 27 touches and a goal.
The Hawks will have the added benefit of an extra week of rest here after their bye came in Round 12. The break couldn’t have come at a better time for the Hawks, who were on the back of a five game losing streak by an average margin of 34.8 points. It’s been a tough season for the Hawks, who have publicly declared they are in the midst of a rebuild, so it’s really uncertain of what to expect from them week to week.
The Swans have arguably the best injury list in the league. Only Braeden Campbell, Errol Gulden and Sam Reid will be missing from their best 22 on the weekend, while Chad Warner will need to pass a fitness test to play. The Hawks will be buoyed by the return of midfielder Jaeger O’Meara, who missed Round 11 through concussion. They will, however, be without Jack Gunston, James Sicily and Kyle Hartigan.
The Swans start as extremely heavy favourites here, opening as high as 31.5 points at some outlets. It’s not really a line that I fancy one way or another, because if the Hawks show up to play they could easily get within 30 points of the Swans. I do, however, like the overs in this game. Rain is forecast in Sydney on Thursday but Friday is set to be a clear day.
Of the 23 games that Hawthorn and Sydney have separately competed in this season, a whopping 18 of them have cleared the 155.5 point mark, including seven of the last eight for the Hawks and the last three in a row for the Swans. I expect the Swans to put up 100+ against this Hawks defence at the SCG, so there shouldn’t be much work for Hawthorn to do to clear the over.
Sydney to win is a safe leg here. The Hawks likely won’t be able to put up enough points to have a chance here and if they do, it plays right into the hands of our best bet above. Will Hayward has kicked goals in his last three games in a row the Swans, including three last week against the Saints. Jake Lloyd has surpassed the 25 disposal mark in every game this season except all the way back in Round 1.
Hayward Anytime Goal
Lloyd 25+ Disposals
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