2021 AFL Round 11: Sydney vs Carlton Preview & Betting Tips

May 29th 2021, 2:28pm, By: Jack Tobin

AFL Swans vs Blues Betting Tips

The Blues got back on the winners list with a scrappy victory over the Hawks, and now they head to Sydney looking to beat a top eight team for the first time in season 2021. Whilst the Swans need a win to keep their spot in the eight, with a logjam of teams between sixth and tenth separated by just a game. We’ve got you covered with the preview & tips for a crucial Sunday afternoon clash. 

AFL Sydney vs Carlton Betting Tips

SCG, Sunday May 30th, 3:20pm AEST

Match Prediction

Sydney suffered a heartbreaking two point loss against Fremantle last week, with Lance Franklin reminding the footballing world he’s still got plenty in the tank, kicking six goals. Carlton ended a two game losing streak with a victory, although it was far from a convincing performance from David Teague’s men.

The Blues will welcome back Jack Martin from injury, whilst Lachie Plowman will miss through suspension. For the Swans, Lewis Melican and Justin McInerney are set to return from injury. 

The Swans resurgence has been built on the improvement in their pressure game. They rank third in the league for tackles, fourth for least opponent disposals per game and first for least opponent marks per game. Their ability to apply manic pressure through the middle, has allowed their undersized defence to contain opposing forward lines. Their dynamic forward line ranks seventh for points scored, and possess a great spread where any one of their forwards can get a hold of an opposition on their day.  

Carlton have conceded the fifth most points in the competition this season, and that simply doesn’t cut it for a side trying to make the top eight. The Blues are 0-4 against top eight sides and are 2-5 against sides above them on the ladder, with those wins coming against Essendon and Fremantle. In a year that they were expected to jump into the eight, it’s shown how far off Carlton is.

Sydney’s midfield has become incredibly deep this season with Luke Parker (avg 27 disposals), Callum Mills (26), Josh Kennedy (24), Oli Florent (20), James Rowbottom (19) and Chad Warner (17) allowing the Swans to throw plenty of different looks through the centre of the ground. The Blues don’t have anywhere near the depth that the Swans have through the midfield, and that will be a big advantage for Sydney if Tom Hickey can continue to control the ruck like he has so far this season.

Sydney have won thirteen of their last fifteen games against Carlton at the SCG, by an average of 45 points. Carlton’s inability to perform against the quality sides of the competition has been the story of their season, and with the gap in midfield depth between the two sides, it’s hard to see that changing. Despite failing to beat a top eight side, Carlton’s biggest loss to a top eight side this season is 28 points, so Sydney 1-39 looks the best way to go.

Same Game Multi

Sam Walsh has been a shining light for the Blues this season, averaging 30 disposals a game, ranking him ninth in the AFL for disposals. Walsh has hit the 30 disposal mark in four of his last five games, and had 20 in the first half alone last week. Ed Curnow has gone under the radar this season, averaging 26 disposals per game. Curnow has surpassed the 25 disposal mark in seven of his past eight games. Whilst being slightly down on his 2020 output, Jake Lloyd has still put together a quality season, averaging 27 disposals per game. Lloyd had 24 disposals in round one, and has had 25 or disposals in every game since round one. He’s the number one kick in taker and the Swans and won’t have any troubles getting to 25 disposals again.

Sam Walsh 30+ Disposals
Ed Curnow 25+ Disposals
Jake Lloyd 25+ Disposals


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