The Blues got back on the winners list with a scrappy victory over the Hawks, and now they head to Sydney looking to beat a top eight team for the first time in season 2021. Whilst the Swans need a win to keep their spot in the eight, with a logjam of teams between sixth and tenth separated by just a game. We’ve got you covered with the preview & tips for a crucial Sunday afternoon clash.
SCG, Sunday May 30th, 3:20pm AEST
Sydney suffered a heartbreaking two point loss against Fremantle last week, with Lance Franklin reminding the footballing world he’s still got plenty in the tank, kicking six goals. Carlton ended a two game losing streak with a victory, although it was far from a convincing performance from David Teague’s men.
The Blues will welcome back Jack Martin from injury, whilst Lachie Plowman will miss through suspension. For the Swans, Lewis Melican and Justin McInerney are set to return from injury.
The Swans resurgence has been built on the improvement in their pressure game. They rank third in the league for tackles, fourth for least opponent disposals per game and first for least opponent marks per game. Their ability to apply manic pressure through the middle, has allowed their undersized defence to contain opposing forward lines. Their dynamic forward line ranks seventh for points scored, and possess a great spread where any one of their forwards can get a hold of an opposition on their day.
Carlton have conceded the fifth most points in the competition this season, and that simply doesn’t cut it for a side trying to make the top eight. The Blues are 0-4 against top eight sides and are 2-5 against sides above them on the ladder, with those wins coming against Essendon and Fremantle. In a year that they were expected to jump into the eight, it’s shown how far off Carlton is.
Sydney’s midfield has become incredibly deep this season with Luke Parker (avg 27 disposals), Callum Mills (26), Josh Kennedy (24), Oli Florent (20), James Rowbottom (19) and Chad Warner (17) allowing the Swans to throw plenty of different looks through the centre of the ground. The Blues don’t have anywhere near the depth that the Swans have through the midfield, and that will be a big advantage for Sydney if Tom Hickey can continue to control the ruck like he has so far this season.
Sydney have won thirteen of their last fifteen games against Carlton at the SCG, by an average of 45 points. Carlton’s inability to perform against the quality sides of the competition has been the story of their season, and with the gap in midfield depth between the two sides, it’s hard to see that changing. Despite failing to beat a top eight side, Carlton’s biggest loss to a top eight side this season is 28 points, so Sydney 1-39 looks the best way to go.
Sam Walsh has been a shining light for the Blues this season, averaging 30 disposals a game, ranking him ninth in the AFL for disposals. Walsh has hit the 30 disposal mark in four of his last five games, and had 20 in the first half alone last week. Ed Curnow has gone under the radar this season, averaging 26 disposals per game. Curnow has surpassed the 25 disposal mark in seven of his past eight games. Whilst being slightly down on his 2020 output, Jake Lloyd has still put together a quality season, averaging 27 disposals per game. Lloyd had 24 disposals in round one, and has had 25 or disposals in every game since round one. He’s the number one kick in taker and the Swans and won’t have any troubles getting to 25 disposals again.
Sam Walsh 30+ Disposals
Ed Curnow 25+ Disposals
Jake Lloyd 25+ Disposals
The conference semi-finals in the NBA are almost done and dusted at the time of writing, and by Monday just four teams will remain in the hunt for the 2020-21 NBA title. Check out our full preview and betting tips for the Conference Semis, beginning on Monday, here read more
The 2021 NBL Grand Final series between Melbourne United and the Perth Wildcats continues on Sunday night. Catch our match prediction and best player prop bet for this crucial Game 2 right here! read more
Just the one game on Sunday in the AFL this week and while it’s not a blockbuster, it’s all we’ve got. PuntingInDanger is here to guide you through the game in full and give his preview and AFL tips here. read more
The best Australian sports betting sites ensure safe and successful online betting for punters. Here's our list of the best sports betting options in Australia. read more
Julian Vallance from Sportsbet takes us through some of the key factors which he uses with pricing upcoming horse races such as performance ratings. Check out his video from Sportsbet here. read more
Over-Round is an important concept for both punters and sportsbooks. It's how Australian sportsbooks make money! All punters should understand over-round, how to spot it, and how to find better value on the Betfair Exchange. read more
Ever wondered why you can get such great odds at Betfair in comparison to other online bookmakers? We break down why that is the case and why Betfair isn't just for professional punters here read more
The bye rounds continued over the long Queen's Birthday weekend with just the six games across five days for Round 13. Check out our analysis, Brownlow vote predictions for Round 13 and our current Brownlow leaderboard here! read more
Just the six games of AFL during Round 12 of the 2021 AFL season but that was enough for the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Dustin Martin, Darcy Parish and Clayton Oliver to add to their Brownlow Medal tallies. Who got the Round 12 Brownlow votes? Find out here... read more
We have a new leader in our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard. After an amazing month, Melbourne's Clayton Oliver is now on top of our counts after Round 11. Check out who got our Brownlow votes and all the analysis from Round 11 here! read more
Some interesting games in Round 10 of the AFL season where the best players arguably came from the losing teams. Will the umpires see it the same as we did? Read on to find out our Brownlow vote predictions for Round 10. read more