The 2019 Geelong Cup is a key lead up to this year's Melbourne Cup, with a number of runners needing to win to gain a weight penalty for the race that stops the nation, and therefore rise up the order of entry.
Wednesday's Geelong Cup attracts a field of 11 runners, with four internationals engaged. We've taken an in-depth look at the race below, with our assessment of every runner.
The track will be a Good 4 and the rail is in the True position.
2019 Geelong Cup Preview & Betting Tips
Speed Map & Tempo
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Leader / On-pace
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Forward of Midfield
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Back of Midfield
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Backmarker
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Haky
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Prince of Arran
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Supernova
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Muntahaa
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Grey Lion
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Steel Prince
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Red Cardinal
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Red Galileo
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Dal Harraild
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True Self
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Neufbosc
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It was interesting to hear the comments of OTI owner Terry Henderson after the run of (9) Haky first up at Caulfield in the Herbert Power Stakes, saying Linda Meech set a "terrible tempo". He noted the horse was a genuine stayer and said "he is the type of horse that could run in the Geelong Cup and be in front by 10L with 600m to go." So there's a fair chance this could be run at a pretty good clip, despite the apparent lack of pace runners on paper. That may string the field out and allow every horse to slow in. I expect (3) Prince Of Arran to go forward from barrier 11. WIth three runs under the belt and back onto good ground, I think (6) Grey Lion will be ridden forward to box seat from his inside draw. (7) Red Galileo should just land on speed without being bustled from barrier 4. (11) Supernova draws barrier 7 and looks likely to sit in the heart of midfield, alongside (5) Dal Harraild. It's possible Dal Harraild may be forced back to the rail from barrier 5. We have seen him lead in the past so perhaps he will sit more prominently than where I've got him, he's a versatile sort. (2) Neufbosc and (8) Steel Prince will be in the back half of midfield, leaving (4) Red Cardinal and (1) Muntaaha as the backmarkers.
Runner-By-Runner Analysis
(1) Muntaaha: Has had five runs in Australia since arriving for last year's Melbourne Cup and hasn't beaten a single runner home in his past three. Think we'll see him ridden much quieter today but it's hard to make a case for him.
(2) Neufbosc: Has had four runs this preparation and the best he's managed was 7th of 11 in G3 company at Caulfield two starts ago. The return to good ground should suit him better than when he was tailed off by 30L last start in The Metropolitan, but it'd be some turnaround if he was to win this. Blinkers go on for the first time.
(3) Prince Of Arran: Just flies in Australia. He's had four starts here, which include a 3rd in last year's Herbet Power, followed by a win in the Lexus Stakes before backing up and running 3rd in the Melbourne Cup. He returned with a 0.5L defeat to The Chosen One in this year's Herbert Power and he quite clearly looks the horse to beat. The barrier is a bit awkward but I suspect they'll roll forward to try and slot in behind the leader somewhere. Hard to hold out.
(4) Red Cardinal: Returned with a decent effort when 5th behind Hush Writer first up over 2300m. Should take plenty of benefit from that run and he has a great second up record with three wins and a 2nd from five starts. Hush Writer has since won again so the form has stood up so he's a rough chance at odds. Likely to settle near the back from the wide gate.
(5) Dal Harraild: I think he's a good each way chance here and I'll be having something on at $13. Ciaron Maher earmarked him as a horse to follow through the Spring a few weeks back and his run in The Bart Cummings was good, even though he finished midfield. He worked home in basically the same final 200m as Supernova, who ran 2nd, and he was only second up, while Supernova was third up. He's drawn well today in barrier 5 and I expect a bold run.
(6) Grey Lion: He's not at his best on wet ground and he gets back onto firm ground for the first time this preparation. His run two starts back was actually very good behind Finche, which looks a very solid formline. He's run in this race twice before and has finished 2nd and 4th. Drawn softly, can sit further forward and back on his ideal surface, could be a value chance at $23.
(7) Red Galileo: He's a $7 chance at the moment and I'm pretty happy to take him on. He's a 9YO having his first start in Australia and his winning record is 3 from 41. He's yet to win from 16 starts at 2400m, so even though he's drawn well in barrier 4, I'll bet around him in what looks a very competitive field.
(8) Steel Prince: Was set to start favourite in the Herbert Power but was scratched at the gates after cutting his leg. That's set him back a little bit which is some concern, and they'll want him spot on for the Melbourne Cup. He's got a terrific record at this distance, having never finished out of the top two from six starts. You would expect him to be hitting the line very hard and it wouldn't shock me to see him win, but I've got one or two others ahead of him.
(9) Haky: As noted above, he was ridden wrong first up. The connections seem to think he needs to run them into the ground rather than stack them up and sprint, so don't be shocked to see him stretching this field right out. If you watch his most recent victory in France, he leads by a few lengths the entire way and fights to hold them off in the straight. At $31 and with this in mind, I'll be having something small on. It's important not to overlook the fact he was very well supported first up.
(10) True Self: She's a 7YO mare having her first start in Australia. Trained by WIllie Mullins in Ireland, who has brought horses such as Max Dynamite over for the Cups with success in the past. The stable have said this mare possesses a good bit more speed than horses such as him and her record when fresh from a break is superb. She's got four wins and a 2nd from six starts when first up. She's run top two in both starts over 2400m and from barrier 1 she should get a good run. Looks very competitive at $6.00.
(11) Supernova: Was very well backed at each way odds in The Bart Cummings, where he ran 2nd behind one of the Melbourne Cup favourites, Surprise Baby. He'll be well suited having had that run over 2500m leading into this and the Surprise Baby form line obviously looks very strong. Has a terrific record on good ground, draws well for a spot in midfield from barrier 7, and gets in on the minimum weight. The past three winners of this race have carried 54kg so he looks well placed.
Selections
Fascinating field assembled for this year's Geelong Cup and it looks one of the more competitive editions in recent years. It's notable that the past three winners have carried 54kg and of the nine placegetters in the last three years, eight of them have carried 55kg or less. You have to go back to Dunaden in 2011 to find the last horse who carried 58kg to victory in this race. With that in mind, I've gone with (11) Supernova on top, who ran 2nd to one of the Cup favourites Surprise Baby last start in The Bart Cummings. He goes well on good ground, draws ideally here in barrier 7, has a good platform coming off a 2500m run, and is the only horse in the race with 54kg (2.5kg+ less than the others). He looks a good each way bet at $6.50. I'm expecting a big run from (10) True Self at her first Australian start. She flies fresh, draws well and Willie Mullins runners have consistently performed well in Australia in the past. I'll be interested to see how (9) Haky goes with a more aggressive ride in front. He was well backed on his Australian debut last start and $31 could prove to be a huge price here. (5) Dal Harraild will be getting some of my money at $13. He's ready to peak. (3) Prince Of Arran is the horse to beat and comes off a terrific run in the Herbert Power but he's up against it from a historical standpoint with 58kg. He should run well in any case, while (8) Steel Prince should be hitting the line.
1st (11) SUPERNOVA $6.50
2nd (10) TRUE SELF $6.00
3rd (3) PRINCE OF ARRAN $3.20
4th (5) DAL HARRAILD $13
