Somehow we enter the fourth Test of the series with the Ashes still alive. But there's no point rehashing what went down at Headingly, it's been analysed to death.
Old Trafford will play host to the 4th Test starting this Wednesday – and the forecast at this stage is looking pretty wet. Showers are expected on days one and three, so be prepared for some stop-start stuff if you're staying up to watch.
Steve Smith is fit to play and will resume his position at number four in the Australian order. That means a reshuffle for a couple of batsmen, including the highly impressive Marnus Labuschagne, who will be promoted to number three.
That shift means one of Marcus Harris or Usman Khawaja has to go, and you would assume the senior batsman will retain his spot, and join David Warner at the top of the order. Khawaja definitely needs some runs though, he's averaging 20 through six innings this series.
Note: Australian selectors have confirmed that Usman Khawaja will be dropped for the 4th Test, with Marcus Harris retaining his spot at the top of the order.
It's hard to believe Matthew Wade could be on the chopping block after scoring a hundred in the opening Test of the series, but he's only scored 41 runs in his other five innings combined. It seems likely the selectors will prefer Mitch Marsh at number six, who offers more with the ball and adds another right hander to the line-up. Marsh scored 74 and took some wickets in the tour match against Derbyshire this week.
Mitch Starc in for James Pattinson is the one change I'm forecasting, with the left-armer desperate to prove a point after missing selection in the first three Ashes Tests.
Likely Australian XI
1. David Warner
2. Marcus Harris
3. Marnus Labuschagne
4. Steve Smith
5. Travis Head
6. Mitch Marsh
7. Tim Paine
8. Pat Cummins
9. Mitch Starc
10. Josh Hazlewood
11. Nathan Lyon
Without overstating it, without Ben Stokes England's hopes of regaining the Ashes would already be over. So they've got some issues with their line-up, but they've also got some serious momentum after Stokes' innings of a lifetime.
Stokes aside, Joe Denly has looked like England's most assured batsman. As a reward, he gets to face the music first up after England's management confirmed Denly and Jason Roy will switch positions in the line-up. Roy owes his Test career to Stokes too – had England lost that Test, Roy would've been dropped all together for someone new.
Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow finally got some runs of their own, but couldn't convert to a big score. Jos Buttler has looked terribly out of form and down on confidence but he hasn't cost his country yet, so will stay in the side at number seven. I wonder if the English would be tempted to throw him the keeping gloves?
Expect to see a rejuvenated Joe Root continue scoring runs, he averages 104.8 at Manchester, his best record at any ground in the UK.
James Anderson's Ashes are over, and his Test career may be too. It would be a shame to see the champion bowler go out like that. Meanwhile, his replacement Jofra Archer, will be a deciding factor in this year's Ashes. Chris Woakes finds his spot under real pressure, and might make way for the left-arm all-rounder Sam Curran.
Likely English XI
1. Rory Burns
2. Joe Denly
3. Joe Root
4. Jason Roy
5. Ben Stokes
6. Jonny Bairstow
7. Jos Buttler
8. Sam Curran
9. Jofra Archer
10. Stuart Broad
11. Jack Leach
Just how is Australia's confidence? After such a demoralising loss, can the Aussie leaders step up and get the side back on track. Ironically, England only got on top for the final two days and now it feels like it's their Ashes series to lose.
It might be the patriotism coming through but Australia will respond with a win. Nathan Lyon will find his groove and Steve Smith will continue on from where he left off.
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