The CF Orr Stakes is the first Group 1 of 2018 and headlines a nine-race card at Caulfield this Saturday, February 10th.
The race has attracted a strong field of 14 runners, half of which are Group 1 winners in their own right. We’ve taken a detailed look at the race and offered our selections below!
2018 CF ORR STAKES – 1400M
HISTORICAL FACTORS
It’s worth noting that seven of the last eight winners of this race have started favourite, with the outlier being 2016 winner Suavito, who won at $15 when first up from a 10-month spell. The best lead-up race in recent years has been the Group 2 Australia Stakes at Moonee Valley at the end of January. Five of the last seven winners of the Orr Stakes have had their last start in the Australia Stakes. Thronum (1st), Mr Sneaky (2nd) and Brave Smash (5th) were the three runners from this field to contest the Australia Stakes last start. In the past 35 editions of the Orr Stakes, barrier 1 has been the most successful with seven winners, closely followed by barriers 4 and 5 with six winners apiece. There’s been a good spread in recent years though, with no distinct pattern, so horses should be able to win from any draw. Plenty will come down to tempo and position in running.
TEMPO & SPEED MAP
This looks an interesting speed map, but the thing we can be sure of is that there looks to be good pressure. (5) Lord Of The Sky looks the obvious leader and always runs along at a solid clip out front. Because of the speed he leads at, it could break up the field and allow those with wide barriers to slot in. Both (6) Tshahitsi and (8) Thronum led last start, so expect them to roll forward from barriers 11 and 8 respectively. I think Tshahitsi is more likely to press on and sit outside the leader as we saw Thronum ridden with cover second up last prep, and he only led a small field in the Australia Stakes. (9) Dollar For Dollar is always on pace and should be able to find cover today. (2) Black Heart Bart is very much a “ridden where he’s comfortable” type of horse, but they’ll want to make use of the good barrier. I don’t see a lot of speed from inside barriers so he might end up three pairs back on the rail. Weir has said they’ll probably ride (4) Brave Smash a touch quieter with the blinkers off, so he could sit outside Bart. With that said, it also wouldn’t surprise me to see him further back than that. (11) Shillelagh was ridden dead-cold first up from an awkward barrier last preparation, but settled 5th from barrier 2 when winning the Cantala Stakes in the Spring. Generally Waller runners tend to use low barriers to hold a position, so I wouldn’t expect her to be too far away as she once again starts from 2. (13) Jester Halo tends to settle in the first half-dozen runners. She’s one that risks being caught wide but if the field breaks up she could slot in midfield. I’m expecting (14) Mighty Boss to be ridden quiet, similar to what he was when winning the Caulfield Guineas, while (10) Single Gaze has the ability to sit further forward from barrier 1, but will she be speedy enough to do so first up over 1400m? (1) Hartnell, (3) Tosen Stardom and (7) Mr Sneaky are the three most disadvantaged by their wide barrier draws. We saw Hartnell lead and win first up over this track and distance last preparation, but they then proceeded to change tactics and ride him quiet, so I really have no idea how they’ll ride him from barrier 12. My feeling is they’ll ride him quiet because of the obvious tempo up front (i.e. he is no chance of leading with Lord Of The Sky in the race). Weir has said they’ll probably have to ride Tosen Stardom quiet, but they’ll likely look to find a three-wide running line and get a cart into the race, rather than going all the way back to the rear. Mr Sneaky is typically ridden off the speed but will just need a good ride to get cover. (12) Abbey Marie will be at the rear.
RUNNER-BY-RUNNER ANALYSIS
(1) Hartnell | $6.50: Bolted in first up last preparation over this track and distance, when allowed to roll forward and sit 2nd in the run. Carried 60kg on that occasion and beat Black Heart Bart by 3.25L, though Bart did have feet issues all Spring. Hartnell has had three starts at 1400m in Australia: two 2nds behind Winx and his first up win last preparation. The big concern I have is that he draws wide here, and if last prep is anything to go by, they’ll ride him cold. And with the expected tempo on up front (i.e. he won’t be able to lead), I think he’ll get a long way back. Is he good enough at this stage of his career to run them down? I doubt it.
(2) Black Heart Bart | $7.00: The 1400m at Caulfield is his bread and butter. He’s had six starts for four wins and two placings, including last year’s edition of this race. Feet issues plagued his Spring campaign, but he returned to his best when running 2nd in the Railway Stakes in November under top weight. Started a deserved favourite in the Kingston Town Classic but was flattened after 100m and never got a chance. Resumes here and draws to get the run of the race from barrier 3, but the stable have reported that he’s had some small ongoing feet issues leading into the race, and while they’ve said it’s nowhere near as bad as it was in the Spring, it’s still cause for concern.
(3) Tosen Stardom | $4.80: Love this horse, and if he wins this then he must have a mortgage on the Australian Cup. From all reports he is absolutely flying this time in, and the stable have said he’s very forward and ready to win first up. Based on his win in the Emirates Stakes last time we saw him, we know he’s good enough, but I have some queries. First up over 1400m – will he be sharp enough? He’s had four starts at this distance and has never won (though he did run 0.1L 2nd to Bart in the Futurity last year). He was only plain first up last prep at this track and distance when beaten 4L by Hartnell though. The wide barrier means he’ll be ridden cold here, so he’s going to need to come from well-back in the field and swoop over the top. He can do it – that’s exactly what he did in the Toorak Handicap over 1600m at this track last prep – but he’ll need to be at his absolute best to win this fresh over 1400m from that barrier.
(4) Brave Smash | $9.50: Disappointing first up at Moonee Valley when finishing 5th in a field of 6 over 1200m in the Australia Stakes. He did go into that underdone, and he overraced with the blinkers on, so they’ve taken the blinkers on as he steps up to 1400m second up here. I thin he’ll be much-improved here but the stable have said he might struggle at WFA against some of the better horses. Williams jumps off him to ride Hartnell. Place chance best.
(5) Lord Of The Sky | $41: Has had a very ‘Lord Of The Sky’ prep, winning first up over 1200m down the Flemington straight before failing last start when dropped back to 1000m. Has since trialled well (but he always does) and jumps straight up to 1400m, a distance he’s failed at in two previous attempts. He’ll lead at a good pace but I doubt he’ll give much of a yelp in the straight.
(6) Tshahitsi | $21: Very consistent horse that found an ideal race last start when winning over this track and distance in much easier grade. His record at this distance is tremendous and his record third up from a spell is just as brilliant, but this is a huge step up in class. He’ll go forward from barrier 11 to sit outside Lord Of The Sky, but he’d need to run a career best to feature in the finish.
(7) Mr Sneaky | $9.00: Think this horse is a good chance in this race. Comes through the lead-up race, that being the Australia Stakes where he ran 2nd to Thronum. Recorded the best closing sectionals in that race and the step up to 1400m should really suit him. His only start at this track and distance was a 2nd placing in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes back in October. Will get back in the field from barrier 13 but there’s no one in better form than Kerrin McEvoy right now, so I’m expecting him to run a big race.
(8) Thronum | $11: Comfortable winner of the G2 Australia Stakes last start, beating Mr Sneaky, and as mentioned, that is the best lead-up race for the Orr Stakes in recent history. He did lead on that occasion, however, which is always advantageous at the Valley, and he was simply too brilliant from the front over 1200m. The query for him is now the step up to 1400m. Is it simply that he’s a horse that races best fresh over a sprint trip? Either way, he looks vulnerable stepping up to 1400m against the big boys, especially given he won’t be able to lead with Lord Of The Sky in the race.
(9) Dollar For Dollar | $21: Ultra consistent and should have beaten Tshahitsi last start, but as forced to travel three-wide without cover throughout the race. Still managed to reel off better closing sectionals, and he should be able to get across and sit right behind the leaders with lack of speed runners drawn inside him. Terrific record at this distance, and the blinkers go on for the first time here. Third run back from a short-let up, should be peaking, but needs to go to another level. WFA Group 1 level is a big step up on Listed class.
(10) Single Gaze | $51: Beaten 8L first up last preparation in the G1 Memsie Stakes behind the likes of Vega Magic, Black Heart Bart and Tosen Stardom. Generally has the ability to sit close in the run, but that’s normally over longer distances than this. Even though she draws barrier 1 here, I think she’ll get a long way back in the run, and I doubt they’ll be wanting to bustle her early given it’s her first run back. Not for me.
(11) Shillelagh | $9: I think she’s a big player here and possibly underestimated by some. Waller has openly said she’s been targeted at this race first up, and the last time we saw her was when she won the G1 Cantala Stakes back in the Spring. Her sectionals in that race were outstanding, clocking 33.04 for her final 600m and 22.22 for her final 400m. That’s just about better than anything else in this race. She’s had two very quiet trials leading into this race, and I thought she went significantly better than Hartnell in the most recent one. I expect her to be fairly close in the run – she sat 5th from barrier 2 when winning the Cantala Stakes, so from the same barrier today, I think she’ll be in a similar position. Probably should have won first up last prep and she’s got a good record at this track and distance. Will need a slice of luck in the straight, and does need to go to a new level this prep, but she’s only had the 19 start and as a six-year-old mare, she may be ready to.
(12) Abbey Marie | $51: Beaten 5.5L by Hartnell first up last prep over this track and distance when settling well-back in the field from a similar draw. She’ll once again be one of the backmarkers and it’s hard to see her featuring in the finish. I would say that her best run in recent time was at the Valley last prep when they set a murderous tempo, allowing both her and Bonneval to swoop from the back of the field. She may well get a tempo to suit here, but first up over 1400m still looks unsuitable.
(13) Jester Halo | $101: Really thrown in the deep end here, but she’s a mare in form. Great record at the distance and comes off a sound win at this track and distance, but steps up from BM84 fillies and mares grade to a WFA Group 1 race against some of the best horses in the land. Might struggle to slot in from barrier 9. Aiming a bit too high here.
(14) Mighty Boss | $15: This colt is one of the most interesting runners in the race for mine. I’ve just got a sneaking suspicion he may run a big race. He is first up since his win as a $101 pop in the Caulfield Guineas. The last three-year-old to win this race was All Too Hard back in 2013, who was also first up and had won the Caulfield Guineas in his previous prep. Interestingly, All Too Hard’s Caulfield Guineas winning time was 1:36.05, while Mighty Boss won his Guineas in 1:36.04! That’s not to say he’s a better horse than All Too Hard and will win this based on that, but I found it interesting nonetheless. He draws well here in barrier 5 – might get back in the run just as he did in the Guineas, but it really wouldn’t shock me to see this horse be very competitive.
SUMMARY
I’m tipping somewhat of an upset here in the form of (11) Shillelagh. I expect (7) Mr Sneaky to run a bold race, while (2) Black Heart Bart can never be ruled out over this track and distance and should run his usual honest race. (3) Tosen Stardom has the ability to blow them all away but 1400m first up and a wide draw is enough to be cautious about stepping in to $4.80. (14) Mighty Boss and (1) Hartnell others to include.
SELECTIONS
1ST (11) SHILLELAGH
2ND (3) TOSEN STARDOM
3RD (7) MR SNEAKY
4TH (14) MIGHTY BOSS
