2018 Brownlow Medal: Leader After Round Betting Tips

September 12th 2018, 4:15pm, By: Brownlow Bandit

We continue our betting previews for the 2018 AFL Brownlow Medal. Last week, we took a look at the Brownlow Team Votes and found some good value in a few of the betting markets. We'll have more Brownlow betting articles coming out over the coming weeks, and today we'll be looking at the "Leader After Round" betting markets.

These markets refer to the leader after a nominated round. Typically these will be for Round 5 or 6, and Round 10 or 11, depending on the Australian sportsbook you are betting at. There isn't a lot of value available for these markets, and often there will be a strong chance of a tie, especially for the early rounds, so you need to keep that in mind when betting. However a lot of people do enjoy these markets so here's our betting tips!

 

Brownlow Medal Leader after Round 5/6

For us, there are three players who got off to fast starts during the 2018 AFL season – Nat Fyfe, Stephen Coniglio and, of course, Tom Mitchell.

Fyfe is the easiest to pick with three clear best-on-grounds, and three blanks in the first six rounds. He’ll almost certainly be on 9 votes after 5 rounds and potentially in front.

However we have Mitchell down for 2 votes in Round 6 for a lazy 45-possession victory. That should be enough to nudge Mitchell ahead after Round 6 with a pretty clear 10 votes.

Coniglio is the unknown quantity. There’s a chance he’s also on 9 votes after Round 5, but may go without a vote in Round 6. The bookies seem to disagree with us on this one, and have Coniglio at juicy odds ($15 at UBET) to be leading after Round 5. I would suggest there’s some value in that if he surprise and can poll well. At that price, it's also not a bad thing if he ties and we only get half divs.

The bookies like Dustin Martin to be amongst the early leaders, but I have marked Dusty a little more harshly than most. It may be a mistake but I don’t think have him as a contender in these markets.

If you like Tom Mitchell, then I would lean towards taking Mitchell to be leading after Round 6 as a bet, as that appears less likely to produce a tied result.

2018 AFL Brownlow Medal Leader After Round 5

TIP:

Tom Mitchell Lead after Round 6
$1.72

BET NOW AT BetEasy

Value bet: Coniglio leading after Round 5

 

Brownlow Medal Leader after Round 10/11

It’s pretty certain that Nat Fyfe picks up five best-on-grounds in the first 10 rounds, so that puts him on 15 votes. The question is, will anyone else be able to poll more than that?

We have Patrick Cripps, Jack Macrae and Tom Mitchell all just 2-3 votes behind that, and it looks like the bookies agree with us with Fyfe a short-priced favourite ahead of the other three. Cripps and Macrae do have potential to overpoll our estimates in a couple of spots, so not overly confident in playing this market too hard, but I do like Fyfe to be leading.

Mitchell is probably the only one to pick up votes in Round 11, and it might only be one vote according to our projections, so not a lot changes in our thoughts.

2018 AFL Brownlow Medal Leader After Round 10

 

TIPS

2019 ATP Rio de Janeiro/Marseille/Delray Beach Preview & Betting Tips

There's three more ATP World Tour events on this week with a whole host of big names in the action. We preview ATP Rio de Janeiro/Marseille/Delray Beach and provide betting tips here! read more

2018-19 Champions League: Round of 16 (Week 2) Betting Tips

The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 continues this week with four massive matchups! We take a look at some of the key games of the round and give our betting tips here read more

2018-19 Big Bash League Final: Renegades vs Stars Betting Tips

The Melbourne Renegades will face off against the cross town rivals, the Melbourne Stars, in a historic Big Bash League Final! We take a look at the game and give our betting tips here read more

Flemington Racing Tips for Saturday, February 16th

The G1 Lightning Stakes headlines racing at Flemington this Saturday, February 16th! We've previewed every race on the card at HQ; you can find our tips and best bets here! read more

ARTICLES

Australian Bookmaker Tennis Retirement Rules

With the Australian tennis season in full swing, we take a look at the variety of different betting terms and conditions surrounding retirements in tennis matches at the major Australian sports betting sites. read more


Streaming Live Sports on Australian Betting Sites

Here's a run down of which Australian sports betting sites offer live streaming action of your favourite sports! read more


Best Australian Sports Betting Sites

The best Australian sports betting sites insures safe and successful online betting for punters as well as offering the best betting options in Australia. read more


How Does Spread Betting Work?

Spread betting has finally made it's way to Australia through new betting agency Pointsbet, we give you a quick guide to spread betting here. read more


BLOGS

2019 AFLX Teams & Fixture

2019 will see a new spin on the AFLX concept with all-star teams drafted by captains Eddie Betts, Patrick Dangerfield, Nat Fyfe and Jack Riewoldt competing against each other over one night of action! We take a look at the teams and fixture here. read more


Kayo Sports Launches 'Feb for $5er Promotion'

New customers to Kayo Sports can cash in on their fantastic new promotion 'Feb for a $5er' which allows you to stream all of their sporting content for just $5 for the month of February! More info here read more


2019 AFLW Season Fixture

The 2019 AFLW season will see two new teams enter the competition as North Melbourne and Geelong get set to embark on their AFLW journey. We take a look at the full 2019 season fixture here! read more


BBL08 Team Preview: Perth Scorchers

Can the Perth Scorchers win a record 4th Big Bash League title in 2018-19? See our full team preview for the Scorchers in BBL08 here read more


Ladbrokes Back Yourself