2018 Brownlow Medal: Leader After Round Betting Tips

September 12th 2018, 4:15pm, By: Brownlow Bandit

We continue our betting previews for the 2018 AFL Brownlow Medal. Last week, we took a look at the Brownlow Team Votes and found some good value in a few of the betting markets. We'll have more Brownlow betting articles coming out over the coming weeks, and today we'll be looking at the "Leader After Round" betting markets.

These markets refer to the leader after a nominated round. Typically these will be for Round 5 or 6, and Round 10 or 11, depending on the Australian sportsbook you are betting at. There isn't a lot of value available for these markets, and often there will be a strong chance of a tie, especially for the early rounds, so you need to keep that in mind when betting. However a lot of people do enjoy these markets so here's our betting tips!

 

Brownlow Medal Leader after Round 5/6

For us, there are three players who got off to fast starts during the 2018 AFL season – Nat Fyfe, Stephen Coniglio and, of course, Tom Mitchell.

Fyfe is the easiest to pick with three clear best-on-grounds, and three blanks in the first six rounds. He’ll almost certainly be on 9 votes after 5 rounds and potentially in front.

However we have Mitchell down for 2 votes in Round 6 for a lazy 45-possession victory. That should be enough to nudge Mitchell ahead after Round 6 with a pretty clear 10 votes.

Coniglio is the unknown quantity. There’s a chance he’s also on 9 votes after Round 5, but may go without a vote in Round 6. The bookies seem to disagree with us on this one, and have Coniglio at juicy odds ($15 at UBET) to be leading after Round 5. I would suggest there’s some value in that if he surprise and can poll well. At that price, it's also not a bad thing if he ties and we only get half divs.

The bookies like Dustin Martin to be amongst the early leaders, but I have marked Dusty a little more harshly than most. It may be a mistake but I don’t think have him as a contender in these markets.

If you like Tom Mitchell, then I would lean towards taking Mitchell to be leading after Round 6 as a bet, as that appears less likely to produce a tied result.

2018 AFL Brownlow Medal Leader After Round 5

TIP:

Tom Mitchell Lead after Round 6
$1.72

BET NOW AT BetEasy

Value bet: Coniglio leading after Round 5

 

Brownlow Medal Leader after Round 10/11

It’s pretty certain that Nat Fyfe picks up five best-on-grounds in the first 10 rounds, so that puts him on 15 votes. The question is, will anyone else be able to poll more than that?

We have Patrick Cripps, Jack Macrae and Tom Mitchell all just 2-3 votes behind that, and it looks like the bookies agree with us with Fyfe a short-priced favourite ahead of the other three. Cripps and Macrae do have potential to overpoll our estimates in a couple of spots, so not overly confident in playing this market too hard, but I do like Fyfe to be leading.

Mitchell is probably the only one to pick up votes in Round 11, and it might only be one vote according to our projections, so not a lot changes in our thoughts.

2018 AFL Brownlow Medal Leader After Round 10

 

TIPS

2018-19 Big Bash League (BBL08): Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips

Round 9 of the BBL08 season gets underway this Thursday night with the Brisbane Heat taking on the Sydney Thunder! We take a look at all four games in the round and give our betting tips here read more

2019 PGA Tour: Desert Classic Preview & Betting Tips

The 2019 PGA Tour returns to the mainland this weekend after a brief stint in Hawaii and all eyes will be on the annual Desert Classic in California. See our preview and tips for the weekend's action here read more

Sandown & Warwick Farm Racing Tips, Wednesday January 16th

Midweek racing this Wednesday, January 16th 2019, comes from Sandown in Melbourne and Warwick Farm in Sydney. Here's our best bets of the day from both racing meets. read more

2018-19 NBA Betting Tips: Tuesday 15th January

There's plenty of NBA games on in a busy Tuesday slate this week. As usual, we preview the best value games of the day and provide our betting tips! read more

ARTICLES

Australian Bookmaker Tennis Retirement Rules

With the Australian tennis season in full swing, we take a look at the variety of different betting terms and conditions surrounding retirements in tennis matches at the major Australian sports betting sites. read more


Streaming Live Sports on Australian Betting Sites

Here's a run down of which Australian sports betting sites offer live streaming action of your favourite sports! read more


Best Australian Sports Betting Sites

The best Australian sports betting sites insures safe and successful online betting for punters as well as offering the best betting options in Australia. read more


How Does Spread Betting Work?

Spread betting has finally made it's way to Australia through new betting agency Pointsbet, we give you a quick guide to spread betting here. read more


BLOGS

BBL08 Team Preview: Perth Scorchers

Can the Perth Scorchers win a record 4th Big Bash League title in 2018-19? See our full team preview for the Scorchers in BBL08 here read more


BBL08 Team Preview: Adelaide Strikers

The Adelaide Strikers will be aiming for a successful title defence in BBL08. Can they complete the back to back or will Travis Head's international duty be a hinderance? read more


BBL08 Team Preview: Melbourne Renegades

Our 2018-19 Big Bash League team previews continue today as we take a look at last season's semi finalists the Melbourne Renegades. Can the Renegades make the finals for just the third time in BBL08? read more


BBL08 Team Preview: Hobart Hurricanes

The Hobart Hurricanes surprised many last season as they reached the final, and they'll be looking to go one better in BBL08. They have a dynamic squad of talented players but they'll need to keep them on the park to contend. Here's our Hurricanes team preview for BBL08. read more


Draftstars