2016 Australia Day Horse Racing Tips from Caulfield

January 25th 2016, 10:59pm, By: tim_tips

This Tuesday, January 26 is Australia Day and that means a big day of racing is on the cards! Our horse racing tip specialist @Tim_Tips has taken a look at the day's racing and offers his preview and betting tips for the interesting John Dillon Stakes at Caulfield. 

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John Dillon Stakes 1400m - Listed (R7 - 4:50pm AEST)

Race 7 at Caulfield on Australia Day is the John Dillon Stakes, a Listed race over 1400m worth $120,000.

Despite the drizzle leading up to race day, the weather predicted for Australia Day in Melbourne is fine and 26 degrees so we'll be racing on a Good 4 surface, and Caulfield typically plays very fair.

Pace in the race will come from last-start winner Tudor, who should now be able to get an easy lead with the scratching of British General. He showed last start if he gets an easy lead he can be very tough to run down so they'll be looking to do the same thing today.

We should see Durendal box seat from barrier 1 with Tried And Tired coming across from barrier 7 to sit on speed with him.

Second favourite Duke Of Brunswick will definitely go back from barrier 11, while Baligari, Nicoscene and Judges look to get a perfect run from their good barriers.

AMORINO: Talented horse which put together a string of fine wins early last year. Ran well in two quality races last September and resumes here. Has the ability to pull out a run fresh but with the big weight I'm happy to risk him.

DURENDAL: Saved for this race in favour of a tougher race at Moonee Valley last weekend. Absolutely flying and from the inside barrier he will do no work here. Despite the rise in weight I think he can continue on his winning ways.

TRIED AND TIRED: Gets a weight swing in his favour over Durendal from two starts back and Tudor from last start. Racing consistently and should get a nice enough run from barrier 7. Just not sure if he can win though.

MIGHTY LIKE: Ran well without much luck last start and finished off his race nicely. That was first up from a little let up so he should be a bit fitter here over a more suitable trip. Wide draw hurts but he is a place chance.

TUDOR: Got an easy time out the front last start and with British general scratched he may get an easy lead again today. If he does he will be tough to catch. 0 placings from 6 starts at Caulfield though!

BALIGARI: Pretty keen on this horse's each way chances at big odds. Been racing in some strong races of late, finishing behind Bachman and then Group 1 winner Lucky Hussler. Loves 1400m, has no weight to carry and draws very well.

NICOSCENE: Struggling to win another race but did run well last start to finish 2nd behind Duke Of Brunswick. Gets a 2kg pull in the weights but not sure that is enough to turn the tables. Place chance at best.

TADDEI TONDO: Been running consistently lately. Finished 3rd to Duke Of Brunswick last start and gets a 4kg pull in the weights but I'd doubt that makes him a winning chance here, especially with the wide draw.

WHISTLE BABY: One I can make a case for on an each way basis at big odds. All three runs this prep have been good. Won first up at The Valley, then came from last two starts ago to finish midfield and then ran 2nd last start with a big weight. Down to 54kg she should go well.

DUKE OF BRUNSWICK: Hard to knock his form with two wins and a very narrow 2nd from his three starts this prep. Steps up in grade here but stays on the minimum of 54kg. My big concern is the wide barrier which just puts him behind Durendal for me. 

MISTER MILTON: Just the two wins from 48 starts. Struggling to win another race and from barrier 13 I'd suggest that would be the case again.

JUDGES: Running reasonable races in easier grade at his past couple of starts. Down in weight here and gets a great run from barrier 5 but he won't be good enough.

Summary

I think the favourite DURENDAL is a great chance to make it four consecutive wins here. Barrier 1 is a huge help to him - he'll spend no energy during the race and will have an early break on his closest rivals. 

BALIGARI is the one at double figure odds that has me very interested. He's come over from Adelaide after competing in the rich races at the Gold Coast and the horses he's been competing against are Group 1 and 2 quality. Has everything in his favour here and can give this a real shake.

DUKE OF BRUNSWICK is in great form and makes the step up in grade here. Gets all the favours down on 54kg but barrier 11 is the big thorn in his side, as he will have to come from well back and give Durendal a few lengths head start. 

Others to consider are TRIED AND TIRED and WHISTLE BABY.

1st DURENDAL
2nd BALIGARI
3rd DUKE OF BRUNSWICK
4th WHISTLE BABY

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

 

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