2015 Manikato Stakes Preview & Betting Tips

October 22nd 2015, 10:41pm, By: tim_tips

The spring carnival turns the attention to Mooney Valley on Friday night as the 2015 Manikato Stakes sees some of the best sprinters in the country battle it out. Once again we have horse racing tips from Tim's Tips, and will all racing season, so make sure to read on and keep returning to Before You Bet for more tips. 
 

William Hill Manikato Stakes 1200m - WFA Group 1

Cracking race for the country's best sprinters which is made tougher to work out given the unique Moonee Valley circuit. Interesting to note that no horse since 1983 has won the Manikato from barriers 2, 3, 5 or 9. In the past 10 years, five favourites have won the race. This year's edition looks to have plenty of horses with early pace which should set up a good tempo and ensure those horses coming from the back of the field get every chance to swoop. 

BUFFERING: The veteran of the field who was the forgotten horse of the Moir Stakes but proved he's still capable of winning the big races. That was over 1000m and he generally prefers the 1200m that he faces here. This is a lot more competitive than the Moir so he will have to improve and have everything go his way. Can never rule him out but might find a couple too good.

CHAUTAUQUA: Best sprinter in Australia by a margin in my opinion and he's won both his starts this campaign in dominant fashion. First up at the Valley he jogged in and last start he exploded away when he eventually found a gap. Big step up in terms of competition here, and my main concern is barrier 2. Since 1983 no horse has won the Manikato from barrier 2, and he will get well back in the field as is his pattern of racing. Always seems to find trouble in his races and he'll either have to cart wide around the turn or wait for a run to appear. If he gets clear running, he probably wins, but if he gets held up at a crucial time it will take a huge effort.

TERRAVISTA: Returned in good fashion when winning in Sydney first up over 1200m. Got given a brilliant ride and understandably got a bit tired late on, but he came from well back and was at 1200m first up. Has a great record 2nd up and also at this distance, and from barrier 1 he should be able to take a very nice sit in behind the speed. Might need a bit of luck but I think he's the horse to beat Chautauqua if the favourite finds trouble.

REBEL DANE: Should have won this race last year and he's been terrific this prep after undergoing a wind op during his spell. Won well first up over 1100m and got going late to get close to Terravista last start. From barrier 4 he will get a great run and be launching late, but Terravista had the edge over him first up and I find it hard to see him turning the tables here. Value chance at double figure odds.

TIGER TEES: Ran reasonably well first up and has a decent 2nd up record but he is probably past his best form. Drawn very awkwardly in barrier 9 so it will be interesting to see how they ride him. Looks outclassed.

FAST 'N' ROCKING: Won really well last start down heavily in grade. Returns to the top level of WFA Group 1 racing here and this is a massive step up although he has run well at this level previously. Another one who has the barrier hoodoo hanging over his head but his stable are flying and ridden correctly he could be a value place chance at over 20-1.

RICH ENUFF: Looks a shadow of his 3YO year which is sad to see given how exciting he shaped up to be. Has won his only start at this track and distance and the blinkers go on for the first time here. Might be caught in a speed battle up front and it's hard to back him on the back of his latest runs. 

SRIKANDI: Certainly the X-factor in the race and one I'm very keen to keep safe. Bounced back to her best form with consecutive Group 1 wins in Queensland at the end of last prep and among those she defeated were Boban and Lumosty! Comes into this first up where she has a terrific record and she's only ever lost once from 6 goes over 1200m. Does tend to race on pace and from barrier 10 she could get cast wide. Not quite my top selection but definitely the dark horse and one I will be having a saver bet on.

GRIANTE: Massive outsider at 50-1 despite a good performance in the Moir Stakes last start. I reckon this girl is flying and she's gone close at this level once before. From barrier 5 she should get a great run in the back half of the field and be launching home late, but she might be a touch below the level required to win a race this hot.

ALPHA MISS: Returned with a good win first up where she upstaged Lankan Rupee. Have to question the form out of that race given the Adelaide horse Cashed ran 2nd and Lankan Rupee was back in 3rd with an injury he has since required surgery on. Sure to need luck from barrier 8 and I don't think she will measure up here.

Summary

CHAUTAUQUA is the best horse in the race and if he was certain to get an unimpeded run he would win comfortably in my opinion. However, he always seems to find trouble in his races, and as a horse that races back in the field, barrier 2 is sure to throw up some complications. The one I'll be backing to win (and thus give a bigger return) is TERRAVISTA. The Sydney horse has a victory over Chautauqua in the past and won in good style first up. Will have taken a lot of benefit from that run and from barrier 1 he looks to get a good run behind the speed expected up front. Happy to be backing him around the $6.00 mark. SRIKANDI is a big danger returning from a Queensland campaign that saw her net two Group 1s. Flies fresh and has a near-perfect record at 1200m. With any luck from barrier 10 she can upset the boys, while BUFFERING proved first up that he's still got it. I'm prepared to take him on here in what is a much harder race than the Moir, while Rebel Dane is flying and is your value hope at double figure odds. 

1 - TERRAVISTA
2 - CHAUTAUQUA
3 - SRIKANDI
4 - BUFFERING

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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