Considering a few of the surprise results last week it was fairly lucky that we were able to pick a few winners in Round 4 of the 2014 AFL season. We just need to keep staying away from those speculative games and we should be able to keep bagging a few winners. Be sure to keep reading and check out our Round 5 AFL preview, betting tips and tipping advice below.
2014 AFL Round 5 Preview
The first game of Round 5 is on Thursday night and it’s hard to see Brisbane Lions Vs. Richmond Tigers being a blockbuster of any sorts. It is the kind of game, however, where the Tigers will be looking to prove that they aren’t complete spuds and the Lions will be looking to show the world they aren’t as bad the Blues or Saints. It’s Jonathan Brown’s 250th game and I would love to see the Lions get up for such a legend, but can’t see it happening. The 26.5 point line is just about right. We are leaning toward a Tigers Under 39.5 victory, but considering how many key outs the Lions have, will be staying away from punting on this game.
Of course, there is no Footy on Friday, but that’s alright because we will be in for a ripper on Saturday afternoon with the Collingwood Magpies Vs. Nth Melbourne Kangaroos. To the credit of the Pies they have been very good the last couple of weeks, but I’m not sure they deserve to be favourties here against the Kangaroos. Being at the MCG is a plus for the black and white, but happy to take the Kangaroos in a close one.
Another great game on Saturday makes up for the no-footy Friday as Saturday afternoon is Sydney Swans Vs. Fremantle Dockers. Considering the year the Swans are having and how easy the Kangaroos did away with them last week, we are surprised that the Dockers aren’t bigger favourites. It’s in Sydney, sure, but the Dockers have a solid record over there, drawing last year and not losing by more than two goals in the last three years prior to that. The Dockers have also managed to win five of the last 15 games at the SCG. Take into consideration that the Swans aren’t the same team they were during most of those 15 games and we would think the Dockers would be close to being the best bet of the week.
One of the tougher games in Round 5 is West Coast Eagles Vs. Port Adelaide Power. These side are evenly matched in terms of betting, paying $1.90 a piece with no line in sight at most sports books. I think this is only because it’s being played in the west. If it was in Adelaide, then the Power would be slight favourites. The Power doesn’t have the worst record at Patersons Stadium anyway, winning half of the last 12 match ups. West Coast will likely smash Port in the ruck, but the Power have enough depth in their midfield to overcome this. Very happy to place a few quid on the Power.
The Essendon Bombers Vs. St Kilda Saints is a little more cut and dry, with the Bombers likely to win by six-plus goals and the Adelaide Crows Vs. GWS looks to see the Crows winning by a similar margin. The Melbourne Demons Vs. Gold Coast Suns game is a little more interesting. We do think the Suns will be too strong, but the Demons will show some fight. Perhaps having a look at the Suns Under 39.5, but this is quite speculative.
How bad are the Blues? That’s been the talking point of the week. The Western Bulldogs Vs. Carlton Blues game on Sunday afternoon will show us just how bad. This is one of those tough games to bet on because, on paper, the Bulldogs should win by at least three goals. However, you can’t ignore the retribution factor. Mick Malthouse and the team should really be looking to respond to the Footy world harder than any side in recent times. They are a proud club in a disarray. We like the Bulldogs to win quite easily, but just don’t be too surprised if we see a different Blues outfit than we saw against the Demons.
Monday night is the game of the week as its Geelong Cats Vs. Hawthorn Hawks. It’s the biggest AFL rivalry of the last 7-8 years. Apart from the Preliminary Final last year, the Cats have a well-documented dominating history against the Hawks. Such a tough game to bet on because no one would be surprised if the Cats won, but the Hawks are clearly looking cherry ripe this year. Hawks at $1.55 is probably a bit too short and the -11.5 line too big to bet on. Leaning towards the Cats +11.5, but will need to see the full team line-ups over the weekend before punting.
Round 5 Best Betting Tips
North Melbourne +1.5 - $1.90 at Ladbrokes
Fremantle Head-to-Head - $1.68 at Ladbrokes
Port Adelaide Head-to-Head - $1.95 at Ladbrokes
Before You Bet Round 5 Tipping Advice
Last week was probably one of the easier 2014 AFL tipping rounds, with the Demons the only real shock. We slipped up on picking the Swans versus the Roos, but ended the round with a solid 7. Round 5 looks a little tougher, with quite a few games that could go either way, but nonetheless we will do our best to score that elusive 9! Don’t forget this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick if we were in a tipping competition down at the local pub or in the workplace!
Richmond (Brisbane)
North Melbourne (Collingwood)
Fremantle (Sydney)
Port Adelaide (West Coast)
Essendon (St. Kilda)
Adelaide (GWS)
Gold Coast (Melbourne)
Western Bulldogs (Carlton)
Hawthorn (Geelong)
Score last round: 7
Total Score: 24
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always bet responsibly. Happy punting!
