Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, August 12th.
Midweek metro racing in Sydney will be conducted at Warwick Farm this Wednesday, with seven races on what will be a very wet track. The surface is currently a Heavy 10 with the rail out 5m.
Tim Geers has assessed every race on the card below!
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, August 12th
Best Bet: Race 7 – (2) Baanone
Best Value: Race 5 – (10) Joy And Mirth
This race is every chance of being decimated by scratchings as seven of the nine runners are double nominated for either Newcastle on Thursday or Kembla Grange on Saturday. So, who knows how this race will change complexion. Waller has three in the race and although JMac rides the topweight, I just have to stick with the lesser-fancied (10) Joviality, who I’ve been eagerly awaiting to return to the races. She’s had two starts this prep and has had no luck in either. She only really got clear in the final 100m at Newcastle first up, before coming from back in the field and wide last start at Canterbury. She finished off well to run 3rd, ahead of Tiny in 4th, which was a really solid effort considering the pattern of the day. Tiny then came out and won her next start, which was in town last Wednesday, proving just how good their runs were for 3rd and 4th. So with barrier 1 here, we should see Joviality position closer to the speed and with any luck at all, she goes very close in this. (3) Nishikori is big odds at $20 and appears the value in the race. He comes into this off a 2nd placing on debut at Hawkesbury behind the very smart winner Torun. I think that’s going to be a very decent formline. (1) Rousseau resumes from a spell with a good trial win under his belt. He ran 2nd here on debut before running 4th in the Clarendon Stakes at Rosehill. He looks the class horse, but first up on a heavy 10 won’t be easy.
(4) Kingsheir looks very short at $1.80 to me, and I’d be laying it at that price. He was impressive on debut at Newcastle, and both the 2nd and 3rd horses have since come out and won, but they’ve only won at the provincials, so the form is still a bit questionable. It’s his first go on heavy ground – and this will be a complete bog track – and although he looks as if he will handle it, it’s hard to know until they do it. The stable have a terrible record here with just two winners from 36 starters in the last 12 months, so there’s enough reasons for me to oppose him at that price. I’ll be in the corner of (2) Exhibition who improved from his debut run at Newcastle to win at Randwick last start. He beat Angel Helena who had come off a win at Hawkesbury, and Silhouette who had won in town. He’s proven on the heavy ground so he gets the nod at $5.00.
Never enjoy betting into these staying races. (6) Red Hot Chillypins broke through for her second career win last start and might be able to chalk up a third today in what will be very similar conditions to what she competed in last start. That was over this track and distance on a Heavy 10, and she carried basically the same weight. She will need to come from back in the field again but her past two starts have showed she is improving after a few ordinary runs and Joe Pride goes well on his home deck here at Warwick Farm. (4) Misty Summer looked ordinary last start but it’s never easy to come from last at Canterbury, especially wide in the straight, and even more so when dropping back in distance. She started favourite in a similar race to this three starts ago but was wide without cover. If she gets any luck from the gate, she should be competitive at $7.50.
Value: (4) Misty Summer $7.50
(6) Red Hot Chillypins
$4.20
Competitive race. (10) Redoute’s Image resumed with a win at Canterbury on the heavy ground, despite being a drifter in betting. The form out of that has proven strong with Tiny running 4th and then winning her next start in town. The little query is Redoute’s Image sat 3rd the fence and got the dream run on a day where you had to be on the fence to win. She’s also a fresh three-year-old taking on the older mares, but she might just be good enough to beat them anyway. (6) Liara looks the value in the race at $10. She was only beaten a nose first up here at Warwick Farm over 1300m on the heavy ground. She’s had five weeks between runs and drops back to 1100m which is a slight query, but JMac jumps on today and she gets the tongue tie on for the first time. I think at those odds I have to back her. (3) Willowheart and (1) Bothered next best.
Value: (6) Liara $10
(10) Redoute's Image
$3.70
What to do with (1) Knickpoint here? He was completely unwanted in the betting first up, drifting out from about $2.60 to $3.90 before the jump, and he ran accordingly, dropping out to finish second last. James McDonald replaces Nash Rawiller here so maybe he just needed the first up run, but even so, I couldn’t back him off that performance, and his run at the end of last prep, especially at $4.50. I’ll play two horses here at each way odds. The first is (7) Wander who was beaten less than a length in 2nd over this track and distance last start. He got to the right part of the track on the day but it was a good effort nonetheless and he’s yet to finish out of the top two from three starts on heavy ground. He’ll need a good ride from barrier 2 from the 3kg apprentice Tom Sherry. (10) Joy And Mirth is also a chance at $11. She won three starts ago on a heavy 10 at Kembla. She then started $4.40 in a fillies and mares race over 1300m here at Warwick Farm and dropped out to finish last, but it was a complete forgive run. She never saw daylight at any point of the straight and got chopped out two or three times. Her run last start at Kembla was good, finishing off into 2nd from back in the field. She’ll likely be coming from the rear again here but at this stage of the day, the outside might be the place to be. Jason Collett retains the ride and Matthew Smith has a good record here at Warwick Farm. Chances don’t end there!
Also backing: (7) Wander $7.50
This race has me a bit stumped. I’ve gone a few different ways but eventually come back to (6) Suave. He resumed at Canterbury and had no luck at all, ridden up backsides the entire length of the straight. JMac takes over from Tim Clark today and from barrier 4 he should be in the leading division with the step up to 1400m, providing he jumps cleanly. With clear running he should be hard to beat. I was with (7) Badoosh first up at Randwick on a day that favoured leaders heavily early on. He came from back in the field and caught the eye running into 2nd, albeit a long way off the winner. The blinkers are reapplied today but he draws awkward again, so he’ll be giving them a start. (1) Cisco Bay is the interesting runner, making his stable debut for Gerald Ryan. He raced under the care of Ciaron Maher and David Eustace last preparation and hasn’t been seen since finishing way down the track in the Wellington Cup. He absolutely loves wet ground and he’s been given two solid hitouts at the trials to make sure he’s fit for his first up assignment. He maps to find the lead and can run a big race from there. (8) Lunar Tramp next best.
Have saved the best until last. (2) Baanone is my best of the day at $5.00. He won four starts ago at Canterbury and then had excuses in his next two starts. At Kensington he went back to inferior ground in the straight, and then at Cantebrury two starts back he came from last to be widest in the straight on a day where the fence was on fire. Last start at Canterbury he looked the winner but just got outfought by This Is So, and they pulled 2.8L clear of the next horse. The huge difference today is getting back to Warwick Farm, where trainer Bjorn Baker has an incredible strike rate. He’s operating at 38% in the past 12 months and this is his only runner of the day. Baanone’s only other run at this track and distance was a win. Pretty keen on him especially at the price today. (5) Magic Over The Bay could be a danger and value at $9.00. He’s had two runs back from a spell now and has improved with each. Third up now, he tends to start peaking at this stage of his prep, and he goes well on wet ground. The apprentices are replaced by Jason Collett so all signs point to a good run.
Value: (5) Magic Over The Bay $9.00
