A feast of NRL action this Sunday with 3 key matches crucial to the chances of each team moving forward. The opening game of the day heads over to New Zealand as the Warriors host the Tigers. Injuries have impacted the Warriors recently and a win would go a long way to lifting their confidence. The Tigers regained their own confidence with a key victory over the Roosters. The challenge for them is to maintain this momentum in this contest. Excitement is ahead in this match and one worth watching on a blockbuster afternoon of rugby league action.
Check out Scooby’s full preview and NRL betting tips for the Warriors vs Tigers clash below and if you’re keen to back in our tips, then simply join Betr via this link!
It has been a few tough weeks for the Warriors. First, they lost their Origin prop and now it has been confirmed that halfback Metcalf is out for the season with an ACL injury. This compounded their 26-12 loss to the Broncos in Round 17, struggling for points as they trailed 18-nil at HT. They were away from their usual discipline too with just 46% possession and a 74% completion rate meaning they averaged just 8.5m per carry and 390 PCM’s. They were poor defensively too, missing 36 tackles and allowing 6 line breaks. They still sit in 4th spot and the Bye will hopefully freshen them up for their run towards the Finals, but similar performances will end their season prematurely.
The Tigers broke a 9-game losing streak with a 30-28 defeat of the Roosters at home last week with both teams missing their Origin stars. Despite this, the home team were strong favourites, but the Tigers young guns turned on an impressive display. They controlled the game well with an 83% completion rate (49% possession) allowing them to make 9.8m per carry and 574 PCM’s. It was a sign of what they’re capable of with improvement still possible. They still missed 33 tackles and allowed 6 line breaks but they need to take the positives away from that match and build on that performance.
The Warriors have won 8 of the past 10 matches between these two sides, including their Round 4 26-24 win in Campbelltown.
The average margin of victory is tight in the past 5 games between these two teams, sitting at just 8.8 points. The season averages of both teams in attack (Warriors 21ppg vs Tigers 21ppg) and defence (Warriors 20ppg vs Tigers 25ppg) suggest another tight contest.
The Warriors perform better at home, having a 57% record here compared to the Tigers 40%.
It is amazing what confidence can do for a rugby league team. In equal measure, the Warriors can rightly lose theirs with everything they have had to endure recently. The loss of Nicoll-Klokstad only compounds this further. This gives the Tigers a chance. It may not be enough to lift them over the line to steal a victory, but it does bring the line into contention. With Luai expected to back-up for this game, the Tigers receive a further boost. The first game played between these two sides earlier in the season indicates how close this game will also be. Therefore, it should be used to your advantage.
Leg 1 = Either team by 10 points or less – see ‘Stats that matter’ for the recent average margin of victory for justification of this leg.
Leg 2 = Total points over 46.5 – the average total points in the past 5 matches is just 40.5 points but the season averages of both teams (on either side of the ball) suggest that this total is in danger of being surpassed.
Leg 3 = Latu Fainu to score – a brilliant display of running last week, more of the same is expected from the Tigers half and this brings him quickly into calculations for another try.
SGM Odds = $21 at Dabble
Date: Sunday 13th July
Location: GoMedia Stadium, Auckland
Time: 2pm (AEST)
Odds: Warriors $1.42 vs Tigers $2.90
Line: -7.5
Points: 47.5
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Scooby is our NRL guru with over ten years experience writing about rugby league with Before You Bet and previously at The Profits. His background is in playing and coaching but he's enjoyed the switch to share his knowledge through his articles, as well as sharing his thoughts on Twitter.
Scooby's strength is assessing the overall team - what they offer across the field in a match and how the ethos of a club contributes to their success. Momentum also has a major impact on sports, and Scooby likes to explore this, while underpinning his judgement against a solid basis of statistical analysis. When combined with the aforementioned points, it combines for a holistic approach towards betting on rugby league.
Other sports he enjoys include Cricket, Horse Racing and NFL. There is a reason why Scooby ‘clicked’ with BYB from Day 1 - he loves his sport as much as we do.
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