The first UFC card of the year takes place this weekend, and it starts with a bang. UFC 324 kicks 2026 off in style with Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett going toe-to-toe in the main event from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for the interim UFC lightweight title. In the co-main, Sean O’Malley looks to get back in the title picture against the surging Song Yadong, and Rose Namajunas faces Natalia Silva in a fight that will almost certainly see the winner fighting next for the women’s Flyweight title. We take a look at my best bets on the card below!
UFC 324 Predictions & Tips
Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett
The lines and odds around this fight are interesting. Paddy Pimblett is instilled as the clear favourite, despite Justin Gaethje’s incredible record against the best the Lightweight division has to offer. Pimblett is full of hype and has huge holes in his game still, but so does Gaethje. That makes this fight rather linear.
If Pimblett gets it to the ground, Gaethje has shown he is a fish out of water on his back with barely any submission defence. While Pimblett still has his chin up when he strikes and is there to be hit after throwing any shot. He may say ‘Scousers don’t get knocked out’, but if he takes one or two clean ones from Gaethje, I will be surprised if that’s the case.
With a title shot on the line, I believe the Englishman will look to get it to the ground and fast. When there it should be a simple job for Paddy the Baddy. However, given his flaws striking, I will also be saving on a Gaethje KO.
Saver: Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO - $4.80 (1.5 units)
Paddy Pimblett by submission
$2.50 (4 units)
Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong
Song Yadong is a devastating striker but prefers to fight in the pocket. Sean O’Malley has shown how good he is at range and controlling fights. The former champ’s Achilles heel is against pressure wrestlers, which Yadong is not. O’Malley picks him apart from the outside en route to a one-sided decision victory.
Sean O’Malley to win by decision
$2.30 (4 units)
Arnold Allen vs. Jean Silva
Arnold Allen is my value play of the card against the red-hot Jean Silva. Allen entered his first fight since UFC 304 in July 2024, when he snapped a two-fight skid by winning a unanimous decision over Giga Chikadze. Those two losses - the only of his UFC career - came against former champ Max Holloway and top contender Movsar Evloev. Allen is a dual threat, and if he can control the pace, this is his fight to lose.
Silva suffered the first loss of his UFC career against Diego Lopes. Before that, he had won all five of his UFC fights and appeared next in line for a title fight. But that bout showed he can be taken down and controlled if his opponents can escape the opening blitzes.
I expect Allen will be a serious problem for him if he isn’t starched inside two minutes. The Englishman can piece anyone up over three rounds and also has raw power, as seen when he steamrolled Dan Hooker and dropped Calvin Kattar, the man with an iron chin. As a big underdog in a fight where I have him as a slight favourite, I am keen on backing Allen.
Arnold Allen to Win
$3.35 (2 units)
