The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi this weekend as Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane fight for the heavyweight title in the main event. While the strawweight title is on the line in the co-main, with Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern going toe-to-toe. We take a look at the best bets on the card below, with odds thanks to Neds!
UFC 321 Predictions & Tips
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
After years of Jon Jones, the new generation of heavyweights is here. Tom Aspinall won the interim title in 2023 and then weirdly defended the same belt, before being instilled as champion following Jones’ retirement after the UFC legend beat Stipe Miocic. This weekend is Aspinall’s first chance to win the undisputed heavyweight title.
His opponent Ciryl Gane poses a unique challenge. ‘Bon Gamin’ is a kickboxer by trade who has caused many strikers all sorts of problems. His Achilles heel, however, has been his ground game. It is a flaw Jones and even Francis Ngannou, who was never known to have any grappling, exposed.
That will likely be on Englishman’s mind this weekend, as he has already submitted heavyweights Alexander Volkov and Andrei Arlovski. Yet his speed on the feet will likely also trouble Gane, who has been caught several times in his career.
If Gane can keep it at range and test if Aspinall can keep up a pace for several rounds then this could get interesting. Although with how he has gassed in five round fights before I wouldn’t hold my breath. This looks Aspinall’s to lose so back him to get a finish with relative ease.
Tom Aspinall to win by KO/submission
$1.40 (5 Units)
Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba
This is an interesting bout, pitting two women whose best work is on the ground and who have previously fought against one another. After Weili Zhang was forced to relinquish the title after challenging for the flyweight crown, the UFC matchmakers have decided to make a rematch.
When the pair went toe-to-toe in December 2020, it was contested largely on the feet, with Dern getting the nod by decision. Since then, Jandiroba has been on a tear, winning six of her last seven. On the flip side Dern has only won five or her nine fight since.
The problem for Jandiroba is she cannot grapple her way to victory. Dern is the most decorated female grappler ever in the UFC. And while she may not be able to finish Jandiroba, given how the first fight played out, she likely doesn’t need to. Dern is marketable and there is a reason the UFC has landed on this fight. Back the Brazilian to emerge victorious.
Mackenzie Dern to win
$1.62 (4 Units)
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida
Alexander Volkov has enjoyed somewhat of a second wind in his career, but he faces a hungry beast this weekend. Jailton Almeida has been impeccable in the Octagon outside of a sole loss to Curtis Blaydes. Most recently he obliterated Sergi Spivac and has also manhandled several of his other foes to date.
This weekend he should be able to close the distance and will most likely take the fight to the mat. When there he can get on top and batter away at the Russian until either he is unconscious or the ref stops the beatdown.
Jailton Almeida to win
$1.50 (4 Units)
