The UFC heads to the Las Vegas Sphere for the first time this weekend for a massive event to celebrate Mexican Independence Day. Noche UFC is headlined by a title fight between Suga Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili. While Mexico’s very own Alexa Grasso features in the co-main as she looks to defend her title against Valentina Shevchenko. We take a look at my best bets on the card below, with all three selections underdogs.
UFC 306 Preview & Betting Tips
Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili
The main event features the atypical striker versus grappler match-up, with two of the Bantamweight division's brightest stars going toe-to-toe. On one side you have Sean O’Malley, a flashy striker with equally flashy hair, who won the belt by knocking out dominant champion Aljamain Sterling. He then looked incredible defending the belt against Marlon Vera but the fight against Merab Dvalishvili is the one the UFC simply had to make.
Dvalishvili is a relentless wrestler. He is on an incredible run of 10 straight wins and has taken out former champions Jose Aldo, Petr Yan and Henry Cejudo. The Georgian is a seriously scary wrestler as showcased by him outworking and outwrestling Olympic wrestling gold medallist Cejudo. However, the fight against O’Malley presents him with some serious challenges.
He will be at a four-inch reach disadvantage and faces arguably the best striker he has come up against in his UFC career. O’Malley is crafty and uses excellent movement to keep himself at range, as he showcased against Sterling and Vera. Dvalishvili will relentlessly pressure O’Malley and once he gets a hold of him will likely take him down repeatedly and wear on him. If he gets a hold of him it will limit O'Malley's movement and explosive finishing power as the fight wears on. While it will only take one on the chin to end the Georgian’s night and winning streak, the smart money is on ‘The Machine’ to get his hand raised especially at underdog odds as in a striker v wrestler match-up, history shows more often than not the wrestler comes out on top.
Merab Dvalishvili to win
$2.05 (4 Units)
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Recency bias is truly something no other sport has to any degree similar to the sport of MMA. When Alexa Grasso beat Valentina Shevchenko the first time it shocked the majority of the MMA world. Shevchenko was a dominant champion who looked set for another simple title defence against Grasso. However, the Mexican took her back beautifully and tapped her out to end her title domination.
A rematch was quickly booked and the pair went back and forth for 25 minutes, with Grasso again getting her hand raised in what was a questionable decision. And 12 months on we have a trilogy fight and Shevchenko is the underdog.
In their first fight, Grasso got off to a strong start working behind her jab before Shevchenko got her timing and movement down and started to take over the fight. Shevchenko got overzealous on the feet and mistimed a spinning kick that Grasso slipped and from there she took her back that was that.
In the second fight Grasso looked more like the level of Shevchenko but in my opinion, should have lost by decision. This time around while odds are stacked in Grasso’s favour, I like Shevchenko as an underdog. She is 36 and her decline has already potentially started but there is nothing Grasso does that makes me think she should be the favourite. Grasso arguably has heavier hands but doesn’t have the arsenal that Shevchenko has on the feet and ‘Bullet’ has a clear path to victory in the clinch and up against the cage. Back Bullet to reclaim her title, although don’t go overboard as Mexican Independence Day can throw out some wonky decisions.
Valentina Shevchenko to win
$2.10 (2 Units)
Diego Lopez vs. Brian Ortega
Once again I lean towards the underdog in this fight. In a fight that will likely determine the next title challenger Diego Lopez takes on Brian Ortega. The pair were meant to face earlier this year but Ortega was pulled from the fight at the last minute due to health issues. Lopez capitalised on the opportunity to beat short-notice opponent Dan Ige. Following that win his stocks are at an all-time high as he is an exciting fighter with genuine finishing ability.
However, it is hard to see him stopping a man that Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski couldn’t. I also believe he will be too willing to go to ground with a superior jiu jitsu fighter and believe ‘T-City’ will come out on top either by decision or submission.
Brian Ortega to win
$2.40 (3 Units)
