Perth, Australia plays host to a bumper UFC pay-per-view event this weekend headlined by former Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya who makes his return to try and become champion once again against South African Dricus Du Plessis. In the co-main, Steve Erceg faces Kiwi contender Kai Kara-France and Tai Tuivasa looks to put a stop to his losing streak against fellow Heavyweight brawler Jairzinho Rozenstruik. We take a look at my best bets on the card below!
UFC 305 Preview & Betting Tips
Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya
To say this is a match-up long overdue is an understatement and a half. The pair’s bad blood has been bubbling since Dricus du Plessis declared he would be the UFC’s first ‘real’ African champ, a brutal swipe at Israel Adesanya, Kamaru Usman and Francis Ngannou. After du Plessis knocked out Robert Whittaker in 2023 the fight looked bound to happen, with the pair exchanging racial slurs in a fiery Octagon exchange. But the South African wasn’t ready when the UFC came knocking so in stepped Sean Strickland who shocked the world by dominating Adesanya. Since then, du Plessis dethroned the American and now we have the match most people wanted to see in the first place.
But now the fight is here how does it play out? Du Plessis carries some serious power and Adesanya is definitely far from untouchable as shown in his first fight against Alex Pereira and Strickland. However, du Plessis’s footwork or lack thereof could leave him badly exposed to the counter-striking prowess of Adesanya.
While Strickland marched down Adesanya effectively, the Kiwi for starters looked well off his game and secondly Strickland is a very technical boxer who avoids counters well by rolling with the shots so they don’t catch him clean. If du Plessis looks at his gameplan as the way to beat Adesanya, which he likely will, I see him being knocked out. Plodding in a straight line forward and trying to just back Adesanya up to the fence isn’t good enough, just ask Robert Whittaker. I see Du Plessis having moments of success early before being rocked and knocked out cold somewhere in the middle rounds.
Israel Adesanya to win by KO/TKO
$3.50 (2.5 Units)
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
I honestly thought Kai Kara-France would have won the UFC Flyweight belt by now. He looked exceptional in the fight against Brandon Moreno before eating a nasty body shot that shut him down. He followed that loss up with another one to Amir Albazi and a lot of people have written him off. While Steve Erceg is an Aussie who was written off in his title shot against Alexandre Pantoja. But he pushed the champion all the way and just fell agonizingly short.
I have seen a lot of predictions floating around for this fight banking on Erceg but that is UFC recency bias more than anything. Stylistically it looks difficult for Kara-France, who often can get reckless in the exchanges but I expect him to catch Erceg and often. I don’t know if he stops him but I think he will be a dominant winner at nice underdog odds.
Kai Kara-France to win ($2.80 TAB)- 3 stakes
$2.80 (3 Units)
Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Tai Tuivasa heads into this weekend’s clash against Jairzinho Rozenstruik on a four-fight losing streak. The Aussie is known for his power punching and horrendous ground game. Against wrestlers who get a hold of him, he is pinned down and stopped before long. Even Derrick Lewis took Tuivasa down before the Aussie hit him with an elbow from hell. But he finally gets a match-up that. ‘Bigi Boy’ is the far more technical striker but I can see Tuivasa limiting his movement with some early leg kicks before landing something really nasty. As an underdog get on ‘Bam Bam’ to shoey again.
Tai Tuivasa to win ($2.65 TAB) - 2 stakes
$2.65 (2 Units)
