The UFC heads to Madison Square Garden this weekend for a massive pay-per-view card. In the headliner, Jiri Prochazka faces Alex Pereira for the vacant Light Heavyweight title. In the co-main, Tom Aspinall steps in to fight Sergei Pavlovich for what is the Heavyweight interim title. Also on the card Benoit Saint-Denis meets Matt Frevola and Aussie Steve Erceg goes toe-to-toe with rising Brazilian Alessandro Costa. We take a look at my best bets on the UFC 295 card below.
UFC 295 Predictions & Betting Tips
Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
After the Light Heavyweight title has gone through a turbulent few years since dominant champ Jon Jones vacated the belt, many will hope after this weekend a reign will begin, however, I see both these men as incredibly beatable.
Jiri Prochazka won the light heavyweight title from Glover Teixeira in the last seconds but he was close to being stopped just a minute earlier and was down on the scorecards. He then had to undergo shoulder surgery which saw him vacate the belt. Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev then battled for the vacant throne for it to only end in a draw so the UFC decided to go a different route and throw in Teixeira and Jamahal Hill. Hill won before tearing his Achilles and had to vacate the title and now here we are.
Prochazka is a strong striker with some underrated grappling but the fact is he is badly outgunned on the feet here. While Pereira still has serious grappling holes he is a fearsome striker who will only be able to take a better shot up a division and not be completely dehydrated. Realistically Prochazka’s style is perfect for Pereira to counter. He is very hittable and his unorthodox kicking game leaves him open for a big hook. Before long Pereira will catch the former champ flush and will be crowned the Light Heavyweight champion.
Alex Pereira by KO/TKO
$2.50 (3 Units)
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall
I am on the Tom Aspinall bandwagon and see this as a perfect chance for him to get the belt. This fight will be for the interim title with Jon Jones forced to pull out of his bout with Stipe Miocic. That match-up is being rebooked for next year and both are expected to retire win or lose, meaning the victor of this fight will likely be crowned the undisputed champ mid to late next year.
Sergei Pavlovich has been on a demolition run through the Heavyweight division. On his six-fight win streak, he has taken out Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, and Derrick Lewis with his lethal hands. However, largely due to shutting people's lights out early, he has not really been tested. His lone defeat came back in 2018, when Alistair Overeem finished him by ground and pound and he looked like a fish out of water on the mat. Aspinall has at least that level of ground game to exploit Pavlovich if he can drag him to the ground.
I think as long as Aspinall gets out of the opening minutes, which his movement and long frame should allow, he swamps Pavlovich as he fades. I expect Aspinall to get a statement win and make it look relatively easy.
Tom Aspinall to win
$1.85 (4 Units)
Matt Frevola vs. Benoit Saint-Denis
This one will be fun as both men are prone to a brawl. Matt Frevola is riding a three-fight winning streak, while Benoit Saint-Denis has won his last four, with the winner likely to get a top 5 opponent next.
Both men are capable of finishing each other on the feet but on the mat, the Frenchman appears to have a definite advantage. Saint-Denis’ win over Thiago Moises in his last fight was ultra-impressive and that has me swaying his way here. Frevola has also shown while he can deal plenty of damage he is not the most durable and therefore, I see him being worn down by Saint-Denis and stopped in the latter rounds.
Benoit Saint-Denis to win
$1.50 (3.5 Units)
