Aljamain Sterling looks to end his Bantamweight reign on top this weekend as he faces Suga Sean O’Malley for the title before he moves up a weight class. In the co-main, Zhang Weili faces off against Brazilian brute Amanda Lemos and Neil Magny looks to halt the rise of undefeated Irishman Ian Garry. We take a look at my best bets on the card below.
UFC 292 Preview & Betting Tips
Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O’Malley
Aljamain Sterling is arguably the best Bantamweight in UFC history. He won the title in 2021 and has since won three straight and has wins over some of the best to do it. He has beaten former champions Petr Yan, T.J. Dillashaw and Henry Cejudo and has wins over Cory Sandhagen, Pedro Munhoz and Renan Barao.
Sean O’Malley has been spoon-fed opponents up until his close decision victory over Petr Yan who you could still argue fit his style. That said I have been a massive fan of Suga since his Contender Series appearance and have backed him in every single UFC fight to date.
Where this fight is interesting is on paper, Sterling should be able to take down O’Malley at will and hunt for submissions. However, he has holes in his game such as he dips his head into danger when shooting for takedowns, has been rocked many times before and realistically in recent times has only finished a one-arm TJ Dillashaw and caught Cory Sandhagen by surprise in the opening exchanges.
O’Malley also has had 12 months to prepare for this fight and Sterling will push forward and present chances for O’Malley to counter with a fight-ending shot. Add to the fact that judges are increasingly scoring for damage and O’Malley is a decent betting prospect.
While I may look like a fool if Sterling just smothers O’Malley and secures a dominant win, I believe O’Malley is a great chance of knocking the champ out or doing enough damage to win rounds. If the Yan v Sterling 2 fight was now, it would have been scored for the Russian due to damage and as the old adage goes every round starts on the feet so O’Malley has the opportunity at least at the start of each round to land the telling blows.
Sean O’Malley to win
$3.80 (2 Units)
Weili Zhang vs. Amanda Lemos
Weili Zhang will attempt to defend her title against hard-hitting Brazilian Amanda Lemos this weekend. The challenger hits astronomically hard and in my opinion pound for pound, I would argue is a more damaging puncher than Amanda Nunez. Lemos has knockout victories over Marina Rodriguez, Montserrat Ruiz and Livia Souza in the last couple of years. However, she has some horrid submission defence, an area Zhang is improving in.
In my opinion, Zhang either submits her or to the shock of many gets floored by the Brazilian. The odds of both are enticing enough to get me involved. Lemos was submitted by Andrade in a standing arm triangle and let me say there is a reason that is so uncommon. She has many times looked lost on the mat and Zhang will have the chance to wrap something up if it gets to the ground. The other side is Zhang has always been hittable and if Lemos connects she is going to be put to sleep. So back both for a stake each.
Also Backing: Amanda Lemos by KO/TKO - $6 (1 Unit)
Weili Zhang by submission
$6 (1 Unit)
Austin Hubbard vs. Kurt Holobaugh
Austin Hubbard’s first UFC stint ended 3-4 and he was forced to rebuild himself on the regional scene before returning on TUF 31. Wins over Aaron McKenzie and Roosevelt Roberts see him face Kurt Holobaugh in the finale.
Holobaugh has had two cracks in the UFC and is yet to register a win, going 0-4. He submitted Lee Hammond and registered a shock win over Jason Knight to get this chance. Both these men’s kryptonite is their wrestling, however, Hubbard is still a fairly strong wrestler, he just has been beaten by specialist wrestlers whereas Holobaugh has abysmal takedown defence.
While I expect Hubbard to get cracked a few times, he still has a chin and should be able to walk through fire, mix in takedowns and striking to register a comfortable victory.
Austin Hubbard to win
$1.60 (3 Units)
