The UFC heads to Salt Lake City, Utah this weekend for UFC 291. Headlining the card is a rematch between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje for the BMF title. In the co-main former Middleweight champion, Alex Pereira makes his Light Heavyweight debut against former champion Jan Blachowicz and Tony Ferguson attempts to turn around a torrid losing run against Bobby Green. We take a look at my best bets on the UFC 291 card below.
UFC 291 Preview & Betting Tips
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje
Before we get cracking into any previews this must be mentioned for betting on this card in any form. Salt Lake City fights are notoriously sloppy due to the altitude, sweat and fighters fading, with backing cardio machines always a good strategy. In this fight, however, while both fighters have a similar gas tank, Justin Gaethje normally trains at altitude, whereas Dustin Poirier doesn’t so advantage Gaethje in that aspect.
As for how they match up, this fight is a rematch five years in the making and in their first meeting, both had their moments. Gaethje almost stopped him in the third before being stung and put away in the very next round. Since then both men have improved and had two unsuccessful runs at the title.
This is a tough fight to pick as Gaethje will be more patient this time around and I believe the leg kicks could play a major factor as well as the altitude. Poirier can sting him if he gets reckless but as the underdog I think there is value to be had in ‘The Highlight’ securing another win. I don’t know if he manages to stop the Diamond but I believe he will create the most damage of the two and win either by knockout or decision.
Justin Gaethje to win
$2.40 (2 Units)
Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira
Although this fight isn’t for the Light Heavyweight title like many believed after Jamahal Hill vacated the belt through injury, it is one with title implications. The outcome will likely boil down to Alex Pereira and what version of the Brazilian turns up. Questions about fighting at altitude and how he bounces back after his first MMA loss at the hands of foe Israel Adesanya are yet to be answered but will be this weekend.
However, Jan Blachowicz realistically is the perfect match up for ‘Poatan’ as he is a heavy-handed striker who doesn’t do much other than box. Blachowicz cannot stand in front of the highly decorated kickboxer if he is to win this fight and needs to make it ugly. I think he needs to take this to the ground to find success and while he managed that in his win over Israel Adesanya when he made the leap to Light Heavyweight he won’t have the size advantage that he had over the Kiwi here. I think most likely Blachowicz gets caught with something nasty and the Brazilian books himself a shot at the vacant title.
Alex Pereira to win
$2.05 (2 Units)
CJ Vergara vs. Vinicius Salvador
CJ Vergara has one of the worst 2-2 UFC records coming into his fight this weekend against Vinicius Salvador. The former Fury FC champ survived being demolished in round 1 by Daniel Lacerda last time out, eventually managing to stop him as his foe faded. His only other Octagon win was a robbery decision victory over Kleydson Rodriguez.
Salvador may be no star but he was on a four-fight winning streak before he was outwrestled in his UFC debut by Victor Altamirano. Vergara won’t fight him the same way as he is yet to attempt a takedown in the UFC. Expect this to be contested on the feet and Salvador is the bigger and more powerful striker who should overwhelm Vergara.
Vinicius Salvador to win
$2.40 (3 Units)
