UFC 281 heads to New York City’s famous Madison Square Garden this weekend for one of the biggest cards of 2022. In the main event a much-touted rematch between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira takes centre stage as The Last Style Bender tries to show he has come a long way since his two defeats to the Brazilian in kickboxing. In the co-main Carla Esparza looks to defend her Strawweight crown against former champion Weili Zhang and Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler go toe to toe in a fight it is hard to fathom a way in which it could disappoint. We take a look at my best bet on this weekend’s UFC card below.
UFC 281 Preview & Betting Tips
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
I have only ever once recommended a max bet on a fighter in a title fight pay-per-view main event and that was Kamaru Usman to beat Jorge Masvidal, until now. I think this fight will be an absolute procession for Israel Adesanya.
Starting with Alex Pereira, he has ridiculous power in his hands, and you just cannot stand in front of him in the pocket and trade if you want to stay conscious. Before he knocked out Sean Strickland, who fought the stupidest gameplan I have ever witnessed, he was tested to the limit by Bruno Silva. He legitimately hasn’t beaten anyone that would give me the impression he could test Adesanya. While much will be made of his knockout over Adesanya and his 2-0 record over the champion in kickboxing, Adesanya’s MMA skillset is far superior. Even looking at those two kickboxing fights, the first decision win for Pereira I think was clearly the wrong call, and in the second The Last Stylebender was clearly winning before being caught cold.
While I admit there is the chance Pereira can catch Adesanya, that is his sole chance of winning. Adesanya has come on leaps and bounds since those two losses to the Brazilian, has worked hard on his grappling and fights best when he is pressured, eg Paulo Costa fight, and can play his counter striking game. I am backing Izzy to dominate this fight and I recommend a max bet play on him to win with a spec on him to finish the fight.
Value: Adesanya by KO/sub $4.33 (1.5 Units) @ Bet365
Israel Adesanya to win
$1.57 (5 Units)
Carla Esparza vs. Weili Zhang
Yet again this is a fight I just see going one way. Carla Esparza was on an impressive run before beating Rose Namajunas in one of the strangest fights I have seen, and even still I am baffled the decision didn’t go the way of Thug Rose. Esparza has decent striking but relies heavily on her wrestling and ground control.
Weili Zhang is unbelievably strong, to the point there was recently a video of her picking up UFC Heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou. Her striking is especially solid, and she excels at forward pressure and unloading power punches. I expect her to walk down Esparza and tee off on her. Recommending another max 5 stake play with a spec on a KO/TKO finish.
Value: Weili Zhang to win by KO/TKO $2.24 (2 Units) @ Neds
Weili Zhang to win
$1.30 (5 Units)
Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
This fight will be absolute chaos. Michael Chandler has solidified himself as an entertainment machine since joining the UFC and puts himself into the fire to create exciting fights. The weird part of this match up is Chandler has the tools to win if he mixes in his wrestling, but I just think he stands and trades and if he does, I only see Poirier coming out on top.
Chandler carries raw power and strength, but he doesn’t have the crispest technique, which is why he was largely picked apart by Justin Gaethje. Dustin Poirier excels at counter striking and mixing in leg kicks with excellent boxing. The only reason he isn’t a champion is because he has never had the wrestling and jiu jitsu to go with it. Chandler plausibly can catch Poirier with a big shot and end it there but more likely after a competitive round 1, Poirier gains confidence and pours it on Chandler and stops him down the stretch.
Dustin Poirier to win by KO/TKO
$2.35 (2.5 Units)
