Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Sha Tin on Sunday, November 18th.
We’ve got a terrific day of racing as we head toward the Hong Kong International Races next month, with a trio of Group 2’s on the 10-race card.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race on the card below!
Super Star was impressive winning on debut six weeks ago over the track and distance, coming from midfield to score by a length, but I think he’s well and truly short enough at $2.50 here. The form out of that race is questionable, with the 2nd and 3rd horses since running 10th and 12th at their next starts. He carries 60.5kg from an awkward draw today and it’s hard to string wins together in Hong Kong, such is the handicapping system. I’m pretty keen on Charizard each way at $7.00. Barrier 14 is a big negative but he was good on debut when running 4th over the track and distance, beaten three lengths after settling near the back of the field. He ran the second-best final sectional of the race and the horse that ran the best final sectional finished behind him in 5th, but has since come out and won its next start. Regency Darling put two wins together before failing last start. He was second up off a nine-week break on that occasion and if you look at his record, he often fails second up. His third up record is good though so I’d expect a turnaround in form today. Zac Purton jumps on Brave Baby for Tony Cruz and draws well in barrier 5. He could be a value chance with the good draw.
Spicy Kaka is the winner of just two races from 28 starts but both victories have come over this track and distance and after a long string of duck eggs, he’s turned his form around in his past two starts. The step up from 1200m to 1650m is a query but he’s handled it before and he’s put the writing on the wall recently. From the good draw, he’ll be right in the finish. The value could be Diamond Friends, who just had no luck last start but won his start prior to that over the track and distance. In fact, all six of his career wins have been at this track and distance. From barrier 5, he should get a much better trip today and at $9.00 I’ll definitely be having something on. Righteous Mate was deadest given a sore back last start but Purton takes the reigns today. He’s drawn poor and has a terrible record but he could be a blowout chance at $26. His run two starts back was solid. Chater Thunder lost the rider at the start last time out and could be competitive, while Moreira returns on the aptly-named Quick Return and looks a solid each way chance.
Elusive State could be a moral here. He’s put three straight wins together (and four from his last five) and absolutely destroyed his rivals last start, coasting home to win by 5L. He was the only horse in the race to break 23 seconds from the 800m-400m last start and if he produces anything similar to that performance, he’ll win again. Wide draw isn’t that much of an issue given he gets back anyway and he won from a wide gate two starts ago with a big turn of foot.
Styling City took his record at this track and distance to three wins from five starts last time out with a dominant win in this grade. The big query today is the 7kg rise in the weights, which sees him carry 60.5kg, but he might be able to win again despite that. Triumphant Jewel is basically the polar opposite to Styling City. He’s an eight-year-old with 70 starts under the belt but he’s racing in good form and gets a 4.5kg weight swing in his favour from last time he met Styling City. On that occasion he actually finished ahead of Styling City so at the weights, you’d have to say he’s the one best suited. Diamond Dragon finished 4th in that race and also gets a nice weight swing today, as well as the important wide barrier which is highly advantageous in these straight races.
Very keen on Victory Boys. He resumed with a solid win over the mile first up and he steps up to the 1800m today, where he’s had three starts for a win and two 2nds. Purton sticks with him and he’s drawn to get the run of the race from barrier 2. He looks very hard to beat and the $4.00 seems a good price. Insayshable carries the weight but he’s probably capable of going on to better races in the future. Gets Moreira on board today and his only previous third up run was a win. He’s obviously right in it. Pikachu and General Sherman filled the placings behind the very talented Glorious Forever last start and actually finished ahead of Insayshable. General Sherman in particular gets a big jockey change.
The first of three Group 2’s on the day here and these all typically are very important lead ins to the International Races next month. Beauty Generation is clearly the horse to beat but geez, I didn’t expect him to be $1.26! He’s the reigning HK Horse of the Year and has returned even better this time around with two wins to open his campaign. The scary thing is John Moore saying he wasn’t even fully wound up and he’s also carried 60.5kg on both occasions. Drops back to 58kg today meaning he gets a pretty significant weight swing on the horses he beat last time. He could smoke them but there’s some decent horses engaged here and that’s an awfully skinny quote. The $3 to place for The Golden Age seems a tempting bet but there’s no real telling how far forward he is for today’s race given he’s first up. He’ll go forward though and there’s a few out of form here.
Good race! I thought Time Warp was completely cooked going into last start but he turned his form around with an all-the-way win in the G3 Ladies’ Purse, defeating younger brother Glorious Forever. I do think Time Warp will have to improve a length or two to win again today, mainly because they won’t let him get away with crawling along out the front. There will be more pressure today but he’s up to his best distance now and third up, he might be able to produce that bit of improvement. Each way seems a decent play at $5.50, especially given he gets a 5.5kg weight swing in his favour today. Glorious Forever gets Joao Moreira on board which is obviously a big plus for him. No surprise to see him atone for his defeat last start. Pakistan Star showed last start that he’s not fully over his behavioural issues that have haunted punters in the past. He wanted to stop again at the same point mid-race, but they’re hoping the step up to 2000m (and the different starting position of the barriers) will help make sure that doesn’t happen. He’s really crying out for the extra trip now. This is the distance that he bolted in to win his first G1 at last prep so if he puts it all together, he’s the one they have to beat. He’s a nutcase though. I’d be surprised if any of the others won. I can’t work out why Werther and Exultant are both so prominent in the market. I could get that very wrong but they shouldn’t be the same price as Pakistan Star and Time Warp in my opinion.
Another tasty clash for the sprinters here. There’s not much between the Hong Kong sprinters and quite often it comes down to who gets the right run on the day. Hot King Prawn deserves favouritism after posting his eighth win from nine starts in the G2 Premier Bowl last start. He just continues to beat whatever is put in front of him and if he finds the lead without doing too much work, he’ll probably win again. Ivictory started the even money favourite in the Premier Bowl but put in the worst performance of his career, finishing last. He gets another 3kg weight swing on Hot King Prawn today and barrier 1 probably sees him get the run of the race. If you put a pen through that effort last start, he looks a decent price at $5.50. Mr Stunning has his second run for Frankie Lor today and he’s undefeated from three previous second up runs. He also gets a 3kg weight swing on HKP. Beat The Clock is undefeated from three first up runs and actually beat Mr Stunning first up last prep. He could be the value. Intriguing race that will tell us plenty ahead of the G1 Sprint next month! I’ll be backing Ivictoy and saving on HKP.
$5 the field here in a wide-open race. I’m pretty keen to take on the favourite Raging Storm, who hasn’t shown a great deal in three starts this campaign. Drops back from 1400m to 1200m and the price is probably because of the Moreira/Size factor. Pick Number One looks a healthy price at $10 for a horse that’s got five wins from eight starts to his name. The query is whether he’s at his best following some time off but he was sound first up when only beaten 2L and has since trialled well again. Purton sticks with him and double figures looks a decent bet in an open race. New Asia Sunrise is back in class and second up from a long spell. He’s got a great record at the track and distance and isn’t hopeless at big odds. War Room once again draws poorly but he was good enough in his Hong Kong debut to suggest he can be competitive here. He’s from the in-form Jimmy Ting stable.
Noble Steed and Comfort Life both come out of the same race five weeks ago over this track and distance. They crossed the line together but had very different runs in the race. Comfort Life went forward while Noble Steed came from further back. The latter recorded some good final sectionals and put the writing on the wall, so with Moreira taking over from Vincent Ho, he certainly gets his chance today. Purton sticks with Comfort Life and draws a little bit better in barrier 8 as opposed to 14 last time. He goes up in the weights but he’s now third up for Frankie Lor and should give a good sight at each way odds. Grade One was good first up behind a smart one and could be one to include at double figures.
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