Saturday Horse Racing: Underwood Stakes Preview

September 25th 2015, 12:01pm, By: tim_tips

We had a great week last week with our analysis right on the money with a winner in the George Main Stakes. Hopefully we can continue that winning form this week with a huge card at Caulfield highlighted by the Group 1 Underwood Stakes and the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. Our resident horse racing expert Tim is back once again to bring you some more great horse racing betting tips

Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service at Tim's Tips, will know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday and throughout the spring racing season.

Hyland Race Colours Underwood Stakes 1800m - WFA Group 1

FAWKNER: Resumed with a strong win in the Makybe Diva over 1600m two weeks ago. That was his first run for 10 months and he steps up to 1800m which is just as suitable for him. His 2nd up record (6:4-1-0) is even better than his first up record and he's never finished out of the top 2 over this track and distance. Gets a really soft run from barrier 2, Oliver on board and he ticks all the boxes.

DANDINO: Third run back from a long break and he should be nearing top fitness. His form says he finished 11th of 14 last start but he was only beaten 2.25L by Fawkner and the step up to 1800m obviously suits him. Still needs 2400m+ before he comes into calculations as a winning chance.

SERTORIUS: Ran reasonably well first up over 1400m in the Memsie. His 2nd up record is outstanding, having only missed a place once from 7 starts. The extra 400m suits him much better and he is a sneaky place chance at huge odds.

THE CLEANER: Has returned in really good order this campaign and bounced back to his best last start with a dominant win in the Dato at Moonee Valley. His trainer reckons he improved 3-4 lengths on his first up run at Caulfield where he finished 2nd by a nose to Mourinho. Draws barrier 1 which means he should get to the lead really comfortably and if he's improved again he will be mighty hard to run down. 

MOURINHO: Disappointing last start when well beaten by The Cleaner in the Dato. As a result he comes into this race at big odds but if he bounces back to his best he should be very competitive here at a track and distance that really suits him. Draws well an should get a cozy run. Should go well.

CONTRIBUTER: Disappointing when rolled as the hot favourite upon his return in the Dato. Not sure Moonee Valley really suited him at all and he should be better suited up 2nd up at 1800m at Caulfield (where he has won at his only attempt). If he finds his best here he really should win but there are question marks after his first up performance.

WEARY: Going really well but he's been dogged with horrible barriers at his last two starts. Draws poorly again here with the widest barrier (12) which means he will probably be forced to go back (unless they announce they will ride him forward), might just find one or two too good again.

DIBAYANI: Former HK runner that lines up for his third start in Australia after putting in two good runs so far over unsuitable distances. He will again find this on the short side but he's going well and can definitely get into the places once again. Keep an eye on him going towards the Caulfield Cup.

MONGOLIAN KHAN: Ran well first up when finishing midfield in the Makybe Diva over 1600m which was clearly too short for him. Was found a bit flat footed when they sprinted but he will begin showing his best over 2000-2400m so might just find a couple too sharp again.

VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL: Ran a nice race first up and then went to the line completely untested last start in the Makybe Diva so its hard to get a gauge on how he is going heading into this. SImilar to Mongolian Khan in that he will find his best over 2000m-2400m so the 1800m here might be a bit sharp for him still. 

MAGICOOL: Finished off the race in nice fashion last start in the Makybe Diva, particularly over the last 100m. Gets a nice run from barrier 5 but looking for a longer trip than the 1800m here.

HI WORLD: Starting to get out to a trip that is more to his liking but I'm still not convinced that he is as effective on firm ground as he is on soft ground. He should find a nice spot in the run from barrier 6 and be somewhere up on speed but the ground is sure to be a Good 3 or 4 so he might struggle against the better WFA horses.

Summary

Good, competitive race here with many coming through the Makybe Diva and a couple very important additions. Happy to stick with FAWKNER who has come back in super order and has fantastic stats over this track and distance. Draws well, gets a lovely run and has a tremendous record 2nd up. THE CLEANER is another that has come back in terrific form and he bounced back to his best last start. Draws barrier 1 so will get to the lead comfortably and he is sure to be in front for a long way. CONTRIBUTER will improve off the run according to John O'Shea, and his performance first up has left a few questions to be answered. If he finds his best form he will win but he is being targeted towards the Cox Plate and we are still a few weeks off that. Happy to avoid him today. Beyond that it is a dartboard job - SERTORIUS flies 2nd up and is a place chance at huge odds, while WEARY, DIBAYANI, MONGOLIAN KHAN, VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL and MOURINHO all have claims to fill the placings.

1st FAWKNER ($3.50 at Ladbrokes)
2nd THE CLEANER ($6.50 at Ladbrokes)
3rd MOURINHO ($18 at Ladbrokes)
4th DIBAYANI ($13 at Sportsbet)

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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