Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Wednesday, July 1st.
It's the start of a new month and the start of a new financial year, and Trent Crebbin is looking to start it off with a bang at Sandown Lakeside on Wednesday. The track is rated a Soft 6 and the rail is in the 3m position.
Find Trent's horse racing preview and betting tips for the eight-race card at Sandown below!
Best Bet: Race 4 - (6) Grand De Flora
Best Value: Race 7 - (3) Tavirun
I was originally keen on Galenus here but he's been scratched so that leaves me with (1) Widespread on top, who was good first up in a strong race. Bit of a query on soft ground but should improve 2nd up. Next best is (7) Lady Brook who is 2 from 2 in the bush but would need to keep improving to trouble the top two. Very keen on Galenus getting us off to a good start.
All the early money has been for (4) Aysar who has basically halved in price from the opening quote. He was very well backed on debut to start favourite over a couple handy ones, settling off midfield and racing quite greenly. Once he balanced up the last 200m and even the last 50m and through the line was excellent, recording the fastest final split of the race whilst giving the experienced gallopers weight. He will eat up 1300m and with clear air from barrier 2 will go very close. (3) Not A Zak is racing well. The form out of his two runs this time in have been good and will give a sight out in front. (10) Derive has claims and has run over 1300m before but I don’t think her form lines are quite as strong. Watch the market with (11) Lover Lover who has jumped out well without officially trialling.
A bit more open here. I think (8) Tavidance will be the best horse in the race, but he’s bred to get a lot further than 1300m and is first up off a 42 week break. He’s clearly had a few soundness issues and couldn’t back him as favourite despite his talent. I think (2) Scottish Rogue is ready to win. Forgiving his Caulfield failure on very heavy ground, his run last start behind Ruban Bleu was good on the inferior part of the track. The barrier is a slight concern, but Stockdale’s claim is perfect and with a bit of luck I think he goes close. (5) Street Tough is probably next best but draws the carpark from (12) Minyinga who is very consistent and will give a sight.
Very keen on (6) Grand De Flora here. I backed her two starts ago and she lost, then jumped off last start where she won impressively, running the fastest last 400m and 200m of the race. Her overall race time was slower than (2) Whiskey Shooter on the day over the same distance, but Grand De Flora’s closing splits were far superior. I’m confident her closing speed will be too strong and overrun Whiskey Shooter in the small field. Unless there’s a heavy leader’s and rail bias I expect Grand De Flora to start in the red and just win.
I found this one the toughest race on the card, so hopefully we’ve nailed a few winners heading into it. (5) Clever Blaze is in great form, winning his last two. He should get a lovely run from barrier 1 sitting just behind the leaders, and he gets in with 54.5kg after the claim. The horse he narrowly beat last start Scantoon ran very well in a good race behind Walking Flying last week, and they cleared out from the rest of the field. (9) Maximak is racing well although I’m not convinced of him at 1600m. His only run at the distance was in an easier race and he had the perfect run. (8) French Success looks to peak here 3rd up and has claims, as does (4) Flying Sardine at double figures who was solid behind Whiskey Shooter here last start.
Another race where my top pick has been scratched, with Howlowcanyougo coming out this morning. Instead I'll be with the stablemate (11) Zizzis who ran well but was no match late in the same race as Howlowcanyougo last start. Billy Egan jumped off Zizzis to ride Howlowcanyougo, allowing Tahlia Hope to pick up the ride here. She should be hard to beat. (3) Rolling Moss gets back out to 1200 and will be in it for a long way. Not sure how well (4) Spirit of Aquada is going but his best is certainly good enough.
This is very open at $5 the field. The favourite at that quote is (8) Shepard who drops back from 2500m to the 2100m here off a 5 week break. He was disappointing there but was in great form prior, demolishing Arty Lucas who was flying. He’s got a great record winning 4 from 8 and has only started over $3.80 once. Trusting that Moody has kept him ticking over and I certainly won’t be losing on him. The other horse I want to back is (3) Tavirun. There was no excuse for his last start performance at The Valley after being backed from $15 into $7, finishing 6.4L off Harbour Views. If you forgive that run he was coming along very nicely, leading on a tough day to do so at Caulfield over 1600m and only going down 1.5L to (1) All Too Huiying. He meets that galloper 5.5kg better at the weights and had the SP over him that day. Tavirun was flying last preparation and Stockdale will cross to lead. Next best would be the consistent (9) Arctic Shock from (11) Mr Monaco who drops a whopping 9kg from last start. I’ll be level staking Shepard and Tavirun and hence the latter will be the better result.
Tricky contest to finish the day, and the track pattern is absolutely vital. I think she’ll drift a touch, but If they are making ground (1) Shahzade deserves to be favourite. I made her my best bet last start and it was a very odd watch. She was a touch slow out, settled last and was under the whip a long way out. 400m out she looked like she’d run near last, but finally got moving and motored the last 200m to run 2nd. Off that run it seems as if the step up in trip will suit, despite never being tested beyond a mile. The claim for SA visitor Lachie Neindorf is a good one- he’s a very good rider. If (3) Miss Damita can find a nice spot from the barrier she’ll go close. She’s run 2nd at both starts this preparation and up to 2100m is perfect. (6) Melarita will appreciate the step up. She won easily first up before working early last start, being attacked throughout but digging deep to score with 60kg. She draws well for John Allen who is going at 18% for his last 50 rides. (7) Orchidia came home in the fastest sectionals of the race at her Australian debut but I don’t love barrier 1. With luck she can win. I think one of Shahzade or Melarita will win, but it will come down to how the track is playing by now.
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