Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Sandown Hillside on Wednesday, June 24th.
The track is rated a Heavy 8 and the rail is out 8m for the eight-race card.
Find Trent Crebbin's preview and betting tips below!
Best Bet: Race 6 - (13) Stellar Impact
Next Best: Race 2 - (3) The Natural
Best Value: Race 1 - (3) Miss Bosetti
The quality of racing today is good for a Sandown meeting, and the first fits that bill nicely, but it’s very open. Happy enough to take on (7) Peggy Selene who broke her maiden in dominant fashion last start. This is a big step up and she draws very wide. I’ll side with (10) Zesty Belle as hardest to beat. She ran well first up off the back of some good jumpouts, narrowly beaten into 3rd at Flemington. Back to 1000m looks to suit, and her sire Denman certainly got through the wet well. The other horse I’ll be backing is (3) Miss Bosetti. I tipped her two back at Flemington and she wasn’t beaten far, before jumping off last start and watching her nail my best bet right on the line. She’s by Snitzel, draws well, and Willo replaced Bayliss. I think she’s great value at the double figure quote and would be my best result in the race at the price.
Quite keen on (3) The Natural here, and the early support suggests a few others are too. This filly had two starts last preparation- a dominant maiden win, and a narrow 2nd to Somals at The Valley who has form behind Rubisaki. She’s had two jumpouts to prepare and has looked good in both. Olly was aboard and stated that she improved well in the 2nd one and seemed to handle the soft ground fine. He stays on board here for the McEvoy camp which is a great sign the horse is ready to go. I’ll likely have something small on (8) Miss Hayworth who is suited back to 1000m and broke her maiden impressively on a heavy track. I’m not sure why she’s 3x the price of (4) Beatrix when she was a nose away from Ameliaranne, whereas Beatrix was over a length away when meeting that galloper. I’ll be playing the race with a 90/10 split on my top picks.
Handy little race this, but it’s tricky. We were on (2) Walking Flying last start and she was the beneficiary of a great ride from Jamie Mott, getting moving in the three wide line nice and early before powering away to win. I don’t like the slight distance drop, but I’m also not sure what beats her. She should handle the ground fine from what I’ve seen. Not sure what to make of (1) Tooradin. He’s been up a long time and looked like a star early in the preparation, before just battling away on heavy tracks. I think he handles them okay, but he does drop 500m in distance off a 4 week break. Perhaps he hasn’t run out the longer distances, which is a surprise being by Americain. I’ve got no idea about a wet track for (3) Maseratie Bay but he can improve 2nd up. He wasn’t far off some handy ones at The Valley after cornering poorly and isn’t the worst place bet at around $4.
I think the market is pretty accurate here with three main chances. (1) Moscow Red is flying. He ran a narrow 2nd to Shahzade on a heavy track, who probably should’ve won last start before getting the job done over 1600m. (7) Stocktaka is ready to fire 3rd up. He ran the fastest last 200m of the race on what the jockeys described as a heavy track. (9) Key To The Mak is the hardest to beat. She beat subsequent city performer La Chevalee on a heavy 10 at Geelong, and more recently dominated at Wangaratta running the best sectionals of the race by some margin. She ran her last 600, 400 and 200m faster than recent Flemington stakes winner Front Page on the same day, and whilst they are obviously completely different races, it’s still quite impressive. She’s only lightly raced and with Olly jumping on a from a great barrier she’s going to be hard to hold out.
The clear key to this race is (3) Bartholomeu Dias, who is 2nd up in Australia. I thought his 1st up run was good at Caulfield in a strong form race. He was under pressure a fair way out but kept coming in the inferior going, running the 3rd fastest last 200m of the race. He’ll clearly get further than the 1800m today with the Cups the long term aim, but I’m pretty confident he’s the best horse in the race. The only unknown is the wet ground, with very limited exposure to it. Willo jumps off (4) Nobu to ride the import, which is a good guide. Nobu has been plugging away on heavy tracks before finally getting on to soft ground last start but was beaten out of sight. (2) Savaheat is racing well. A heavy 1800m seems to be his ideal set up, and if they’re getting off the fence by this point, he’s a big danger. (6) The Black Leopard has had 7 weeks off but was racing well before the break. He won his only start at the T/D. There are obvious knocks on a lot of these, but I’m banking on the import handling the track and class getting him home.
The staying contest of the day, and for once it’s very solid. I all but declared (13) Stellar Impact at Mornington after opening north of $2. It jumped as a $1.45 favourite and Willo led at an absolute crawl, was headed by the 2nd horse before finally getting moving once in the straight and getting bloused by (11) Crimson Ace who had momentum. I think Stellar Impact has been crying out for 2400m, and to get rolling earlier as so many of Gai Waterhouse’s horses need to do. Taking those factors into account and heavily respecting her SP last start, I have to go again at the odds. The danger could be (3) Shepard who was poor last start but has been freshened. His win two back over Arty Lucas on heavy ground was outstanding, and that form would go close. If the odds permit, I could save or chop out on him. Luke Nolen is listed as the rider for both Shepard and stablemate (17) Cernan, who is an emergency. If he gets a run with a different jockey, he’s in the game.
I think there’s three legitimate chances here. The first is (1) Flostar who is flying and was absolutely dominant last time out. She does have to carry 62.5kg here, but only rises 1kg from last start. Carrying 6.5kg less is (7) Pinyin, who didn’t make the field at Flemington. I’m not convinced on her at 1000m, but it might not matter here. Her only run at the T/D was a huge run from last for 3rd. Her 1st up run behind Alfa Oro was excellent, and her 2nd up record is outstanding. If you can make ground, I think she’ll win with the weight advantage. The horse I could have something on at double figures is (3) Mockery who is coming off a 4 week freshen. She was well beaten last start in much harder grade at Flemington after leading. She’s a real 1000m specialist, so dropping back to this trip is ideal. Two back she won by nearly 3L over this T/D on a heavy track. Based on that run alone I can’t work out why she’s $10. The other horse in the market is (10) Bless Her who has claims but seems under the odds to me up in class and coming back to 1000m. She’d be my lay of the day at the price.
Tough one to finish at around $5 the field. Heading the market is (3) Falls who is first up for O’Brien and Oliver. He likes the wet and should be handy from the draw, but first up over 1300m with 61.kg on a testing track could be difficult. I think (4) Mean Mister can bounce back. He was well beaten last start, but that was in the Swan Hill Golden Topaz. The start before that he was a narrow 2nd at this T/D. He was a 3.3L win at this T/D on a heavy track coming off a three week break, similar to what he faces here. As long as the fence isn’t chopped to bits, I think he’ll go close from barrier 1. (13) Heyington Station has been frustrating to follow because he still does a bit wrong. He did start $2.50 against Key To The Mak last start, and hopefully that’s been franked in race 4 but he’s becoming too costly to follow. I’d expect (12) Bacchus to need the run, but Willo jumps back on here after riding the horse last campaign. He made good strides last time in, so look for him to be hitting the line well. Very open race but do think Mean Mister can bounce back.
Round 8 of the NRL season continues this Sunday with the two game slate kicking off at 4.05pm! We have a full preview and betting tips for both games courtesy of our newest NRL expert 'Scooby'! read more
It's another nine-race card on a heavy track at Randwick this weekend, with the rail in the 4m position. There looks to be some good betting opportunities throughout the day so check out our full preview of the meeting below, courtesy of Tim Geers. read more
It's Flemington Finals day at headquarters in Melbourne this Saturday, July 4th, with a number of big fields and wide open betting markets. Trent Crebbin is looking to continue his good form with his preview and betting tips here! read more
Julian Vallance from Sportsbet takes us through some of the key factors which he uses with pricing upcoming horse races such as performance ratings. Check out his video from Sportsbet here. read more
Over-Round is an important concept for both punters and sportsbooks. It's how Australian sportsbooks make money! All punters should understand over-round, how to spot it, and how to find better value on the Betfair Exchange. read more
Ever wondered why you can get such great odds at Betfair in comparison to other online bookmakers? We break down why that is the case and why Betfair isn't just for professional punters here read more
Lay betting is when you’re betting against an event to occur. You’re betting that a horse won’t win a race, a team won’t win a match or your player will lose to their opponent. Find out more about lay betting at Betfair right here. read more
With Victoria recently suffering another surge in COVID-19 cases, the AFL has had to restructure the next few rounds of the season. They have officially released the fixture for both Rounds 6 & 7, which can be viewed in full right here read more
A full round of nine matches are in the books for Round 4 of what has been a crazy 2020 AFL season. Here's our break down of each match and our Round 4 Brownlow vote predictions, as well as a couple of Brownlow betting tips. read more
The Saints beat the Tigers in the upset of the round and after a shuffle of the schedule due to COVID-19 restrictions, they will be back in action in the opening game of Round 5 on Thursday night against the Blues! See the odds for all of the games in Round 5 HERE read more
We saw some standout performances for Round 3 of the 2020 AFL season with a couple of our early Brownlow betting plays rising to the top of the early Brownlow Medal leaderboard. Check out our AFL Round 3 Brownlow vote predictions here. read more