Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, September 12th.
Rosehill plays host to a triple-header of Group 2 races this Saturday, headlined by a red-hot field of three-year-olds in the Run To The Rose. The Theo Marks Stakes and Sheraco Stakes also take place as we continue to build towards some of the bigger races in the Spring.
Tim Geers has given his thoughts on all nine races on the card, along with his tips and best bets below!
Best Bet: Race 4 – (5) Masked Crusader
Best Value: Race 2 – (4) Bellastar / (10) Harbouring
We have the 2400m staying event up first and it looks very likely that (3) Cadre Du Noi will be winning. He cruised home over this distance last start at Sandown, scoring by 5L with a motionless Ben Melham in the saddle. That was just his third run in Australia so he’s still open to more improvement, and we’ve seen the Melbourne staying form hold up in Sydney. JMac booked, plenty to like. (2) Korcho should improve back up to 2000m with a better barrier draw. Things just didn’t pan out well for him back in distance from the wide gate last start. (8) Etheridge continues to run well and should do so again, while the Waller runners in staying races are always around the finish.
The Highway Handicap. (8) Yulong Base was a dominant winner of a similar race at this track and distance last start. He gets the blinkers on again today so if he improves from last start he is quite obviously going to take a lot of beating. Outside of him, I think there’s a couple at good odds which I’ve made my best value of the day. (4) Bellastar is the first of those and I think she’s set up well for today. She’s had two runs back from a spell at Coffs and Newcastle, and she always needs her first two back to find fitness and form. Third up is when she peaks, undefeated from two prior third up runs leading into today. Kerrin McEvoy is booked to ride which is a strong lead, and she looks a good bet at the $18 currently on offer. (10) Harbouring is a horse that’s showed ability at this level in the past. His two runs at the end of last campaign were poor and he had a lengthy spell after those so clearly he wasn’t right. I thought his first up run at Taree was better than what the form guide may suggest. He should improve from that run and also with the extra distance today. He might still need another run and an extra furlong, but at $34 he’s worth having something small on.
Very competitive race with a number of winning chances. I was with (6) She’s Ideel first up and I don’t think jumping off today would be the right move. She ran well over a distance short of her best and was only beaten a touch over a length. Up to 1800m second up today looks perfect. Nash Rawiller takes over the ride today and tactics could be interesting from her wide draw. I think she’s worth sticking with today. (5) Vegas Jewel always promised plenty when with Mark Kavanagh and her first run for Chris Waller was very good, in that same race as She’s Ideel. Tom Sherry is replaced by James McDonald today so that’s a very big sign of intent from the stable. She draws 13 so she’ll be back in the field again but look for her running home late. (4) New King won two starts ago but was given no hope last start. He can improve if he can settle closer than he did last start. (7) Attorney and (12) Saigon not hopeless.
Keen to stick with (5) Masked Crusader who is my best bet of the day. He was very good first up behind Varda when they rode him cold and he probably wasn’t anywhere near 100%. He bumped into an in-form, race-fit mare on a heavy 10 and got within half-a-length. Second up, back onto a firmer track today should see him improve significantly, and I also feel we’ll see him ridden more aggressively from barrier 10. He gets a 3kg weight differential on who I see as his biggest danger so I’m expecting him to bounce back. (1) Fituese has to carry 58kg against the boys first up and although she’s very good, that’s a big ask. You can’t underestimate her as she’s won five from eight and is undefeated first up, but she might just bump into a very good one here. (7) Hilo has trialled like a bomb and has a great first up record. JMac is booked first up and he can run a good race, while (6) Wayupinthesky could fill a place at a decent price.
We see the current favourite for the G1 Spring Champion Stakes line up here in the form of (7) Mo’unga for Chris Waller and James McDonald, with the jockey jumping off stablemate (4) Overlord. Mo’unga is undefeated, winning at the Gold Coast in June before resuming with an impressive win first up at Newcastle, where he really launched in the final furlong. Even though it was only at Newcastle, the form has really stood up, with three subsequent winners from that race, and it was only three weeks ago. Looks very hard to beat here. (11) Jet Propulsion is another horse that won at Newcastle last start, and the form out of that race has also been good, with four subsequent winners. This stable’s horses tend to go very well in these types of races so I’d be looking for a big run from him at double figure odds. (9) Yardstick won on debut at Canterbury before tackling the G3 Up And Coming last start. He can measure up here, while (1) Global Quest holds a 2nd placing to Golden Slipper winner Farnan to his name. He resumes today.
Fascinating little contest for the G2 Run To The Rose. We see the return of Golden Slipper winner (1) Farnan who has his first start since winning the Slipper. History is well and truly against him, with most recent Golden Slipper winners failing to ever win another race. From all reports, he hasn’t grown much, but Bowman rode him in his trials and said he felt terrific. Gai certainly thinks he’s the second coming of Pierro, but he will have to be if he’s going to defy history and beat this lot. At the price, I’m going to oppose him. (5) North Pacific has been ultra-impressive in his two wins this campaign, albeit both have been on very wet ground. He will have to show he’s at that level on firmer ground, but he draws well, JMac is on, and he’s got the form on the board as a three-year-old. (7) Peltzer has come up an attractive price here. He took all before him in his first campaign before bumping into Anders first up. His run was still very good and I’m certain he will improve from that run. Anders has gone to a new level this campaign but I wouldn’t be dismissing Peltzer just yet. At $7.50 he looks the value and given I was with him first up, I have to stick with him with that price available today. (4) Mamaragan and (6) Ole Kirk are both going to be better suited over further than 1200m in my opinion, as will (2) King’s Legacy. (3) Rothfire then becomes the interesting runner as he brings completely different formlines. It’s hard to knock a Group 1-winning horse with six wins from seven starts, but I’m just not convinced over his form and what he’s beaten. We’ll find out how he measures up here.
I am 100% of the opinion (6) Wild Planet should have won first up (yes, I backed him) and I’ll be sticking with him at eachway odds here. He maps to get a beautiful run from barrier 4, he’s somewhere near his best distance at 1300m, and I just can’t see how he won’t be somewhere in the finish here. With $6.00 on offer, he’s an each way bet. (5) Funstar was disappointing first up but 1200m turned out to be well short of her best distance. She only rises 100m in distance here, so will she be any better? Her second up record is unblemished, with three wins from as many starts, but her first up record was also very good prior to that plain run. She’s being targeted at the Epsom over a mile so this is again going to be short of her best, but it wouldn’t shock me to see some more intent here to try and get her into the race to see what she can do. We’ve seen a few Waller runners go average first up and then improve second up (Kolding, for example) so don’t be surprised to see her improve sharply. I’ll save on her as she terrifies me. (3) Special Reward looks the leader and also has a great second up record, with three wins from five starts. Nash booked, can definitely win. Interesting to see how the two Queenslanders line up.
This is the hardest race of the day. I’ll be playing a couple of horses here, but there’s plenty more winning chances than that. (5) Haut Brion Her has never missed a place from her eight career starts, which includes five wins and three 2nds. She’s been off the track a long time and this is a hot field to take on first up off such a break, but she’s got plenty of talent. She draws awkwardly but $7.50 is a decent price. I think (10) Evalina can be the big improver here and is a knockout chance at $71. She was beaten 2.4L first up by Sweet Deal in the Toy Show, but she improves significantly second up, with three wins from three starts. She draws barrier 1 here so can be much further forward in the run and hopefully for her, the track is as dry as possible. Two of her three career wins have been at this distance, so she looks suited at huge odds. (8) Fasika has a terrific first up record but looks short enough to me in a field of this depth. (7) Sweet Deal draws horribly in barrier 19 but has a terrific second up record and her effort to win first up with the big weight was very good. (13) Seasons should have won the Toy Show but was desperately unlucky. My concern with her is that Les Bridge’s runners tend to go much better at Randwick. Plenty more chances than those mentioned!
I’m going to stick with (16) Kingsheir here. He’s only had three career starts and comes into this off a midweek win, but I think he just finds a field of horses that have had plenty of chances, while he remains unexposed. He draws gate 1 so should get a good run throughout and if the luck comes, he should be right in the finish. I think we’ll see (7) Betcha Flying improve. She didn’t have the clearest passage in the straight first up, but she was OK through the line. Hugh Bowman gets back on her and replaces Kathy O’Hara today, and this mare tends to improve second up too. If the track is still soft, then (11) Cisco Bay becomes an automatic bet at odds. His first two runs back from a spell have been good, especially last start on Good ground, which he’s not best suited to. He has five wins from nine starts on soft ground, so if the track is still somehow in that range at this stage of the day, he needs to be backed. (14) Papal Warrior was butchered last start but she does find it hard to win, while (1) Entente can improve out to 1500m and be hard to beat. Backing Kingsheir and Betcha Flying, and if the track is soft then Cisco Bay goes in too.
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