Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing on Saturday, July 4th.
It's another nine-race card on a heavy track at Randwick this weekend, with the rail in the 4m position. There looks to be some good betting opportunities throughout the day so check out our full preview of the meeting below, courtesy of Tim Geers.
Best Bet: Race 8 – (3) Handspun
Best Value: Race 7 – (2) Zourhea
(2) Travest comes into this undefeated from two career starts. Both have been at Warwick Farm and he’s rounded them up from well back in the field on both occasions. He should improve here given he’s only second up and having his third career start. The draw is tricky but he’ll have plenty of time and room to run them down on the big track at Randwick. I was very keen on (4) Sweeping Statement last start, until I saw the Canterbury track. You can forgive anything that wasn’t glued to the running rail there at Canterbury, so while Sweeping Statement’s run looked very ordinary, it’s worth just putting a line through it. Her first up run here on the Kensington was impressive, so give her another go at double figure odds. (9) Bazooka takes on the older horses but I wouldn’t underestimate him. Last time we saw him he won impressively over this distance at Warwick Farm. He had some excuses in his two starts prior to that. He’s trialled well on two occasions leading into this and it’s just whether this might be a bit sharp for him first up. (1) Edison should be peaking third up from a spell.
We saw Matt Dunn and James McDonald team up to take out last weekend’s Highway Handicap and we might see a repeat here with (5) Chazelles who resumes from a six-month break. She’s won her past two first up runs, both of which were at this distance, and she’s undefeated on rain-affected ground. When Dunn books JMac is normally pays off so despite a tricky draw here, I’d expect a big run, and the stable are absolutely flying. (13) Foxie La Belle ran really well first up in a similar race to this back in February and was competitive in two other Highways at the back end of last prep. She’s fresh from a nine-week break here. She struggles to win but she rarely runs a bad race so I’ll be having something on at the $10 on offer. (9) Bad Boy For Love is another that struggles to win but he probably should have won last start. He’s had little luck this prep and his last four starts have been in Highways like this. He’ll go well again. (16) Skara Brae comes off two dominant wins and should be respected.
We’ve only seen (10) Tailleur once at the races but she was awfully impressive, posting a 4L victory as the long odds on favourite at Gosford back in January. She then trialled in March but wasn’t seen again since trialling at Hawkesbury last month, so maybe she had a little setback. That trial, however, has been red hot form-wise. Varda won the trial and then came out and bolted in first up at Canterbury, and Roheryn who ran 3rd in the trial came out and won first up last weekend. There looks to be a bit of speed in this race so hopefully she takes a sit just off that and comes home over the top. (5) Best Stone is yet to miss the placings from seven career starts and she was scratched midweek in order to run here. She can go well. (2) Switched has only missed the placings once from 10 starts and comes into this off two good efforts to open her campaign. Tactics from the inside gate could be interesting with her. (12) Let Me Think only ran in a Wyong maiden on debut and was beaten, but she ran well and comes straight to town. Anthony Cummings runners generally go better at Randwick so look for her to improve and run a cheeky race at $34.
Hard to see anything beating (4) Matowi or (7) Mr Dependable here. Both come into this third up from a spell. Mr Dependable was run down late by Agassi last start and now steps up to 1800m. He will find the lead from barrier 4 and will take plenty of catching from the front. Matowi has a sticky draw in barrier 7 but the last time these two met, Matowi finished ahead of Mr Dependable and I think third up suits him better as Waller middle-distance horses typically take one or two runs to hit their peak. At the prices I’ll side with Matowi.
(3) Lashes really gets her chance to score today. She ran well first up behind Adelong and then had excuses last start where she ran third-last. She was trapped three-wide without cover throughout and was a spent force at the top of the straight. Big jockey change today with James McDonald taking over from Kerrin McEvoy, who I think is badly out of form. Hopefully JMac can give her a good run from barrier 7 and with even luck I think she’s the one to beat. At huge odds, I’d be having a little bet on (8) Worldly Pleasure. She’s won three of her four starts when first up from a spell, and she saluted fresh on the Kensington track last preparation, so it’s not all bush form. Carries just 50.5kg after the claim for Louise Day so she’ll be hard to catch, but there does look good speed on. I’d be happy to oppose (5) Spaceboy here. He does come off a dominant win but that was a day where leaders were heavily advantaged at Wyong, so the margin was a bit flattering.
This looks a good race for (3) Elaborate. He comes off consecutive 2nd placings here at Randwick, the first of which was over 2400m before he dropped back to 2000m last start. I expect the form behind Mount Popa to prove pretty strong and the rise back up to 2400m should suit Elaborate. He’s also drawn wide in his past two but draws well in barrier 6 here, so he should get a good run and be able to sit a bit further forward. With even luck he looks the one to beat. (6) Tigre Royale has won his past two over this distance in Melbourne and now comes up t Sydney so it will be interesting to see how that form stacks up. (5) Desert Path is another to return from Melbourne, having run his first four races of the prep there. Waller and JMac combine from barrier 1 and even though this horse has never placed on wet ground from seven attempts, you can never rule this camp out. (15) True Marvel next best.
(2) Zourhea is my best value bet of the day here at the $15 quote. She finished midfield first up on the Kensington track but she always needs that first up run before improving second up. She’s undefeated from three starts when second up from a spell and the blinkers going back on today suggests she’s ready to sharpen right up. Her best has come over slightly further than this but her only start on heavy ground was a win and this is an open race so happy to be with her at the odds. (1) Outback Diva is the one to beat, coming off an impressive win at Rosehill last start over 1200m. Up to 1400m now and Louise Day takes some weight off, so she gets in fairly well. She’ll need to run them down again and she did go down as the short-priced favourite third up last prep, so there’s enough to eb cautious about. The stablemate (6) Our Fun is another that is better over further but she has won at this distance before and her first up record Is good. Tim Clark takes the ride and anything from this stable has to be respected at the moment, so throw her in at $20. (12) Vitesse also goes in, she had no luck last start and was racing well prior to that.
The more I look at this race, the more I think (3) Handspun is the winner. I just can’t find much to beat her. She comes into this third up, having run 3rd in her two starts back from a spell. She had no luck last start at Rosehill and should have finished closer than she did. She was badly held up from the top of the straight to about the 150m mark and by the time she got to the outside, the race was all over. Drawn well in 4 but she tends to race back anyway so don’t expect to see her in the first half of the field. With even luck I think she’s the winner and the $4.20 looks a more than acceptable price to me. (4) Cristal Breeze may well prove the danger – he comes off a surprise win first up at Canterbury, which was his first start in Australia. James McDonald is booked and he drops in weight, as well as being aided by a good draw. What I will say about that win though is that he was completely blessed in the run. You can’t win at Canterbury unless you’re glued to the rail at the moment, and he went back to last, hugged the rail, didn’t go around a single runner and got up late. So he had all the favours with the way the track has been playing and therefore we should treat that cautiously. Of the rest, I’m happy to take them all on. There’s a couple that hate winning and a couple that don’t seem to beat their best, so I’d happily be playing Handspun and saving on Cristal Breeze here.
I’ve tipped (5) New Arrangement a few times while he’s been over here and I’m getting sucked in again today, but this horse just hasn’t had any luck his whole preparation. He’s had an odd one at that, with a step up to 2000m, a drop back to 1500m and now a rise back up to the mile. Nash Rawiller replaces Glen Boss today and we’ll likely see him in the back half of the field from barrier 8. Hopefully he gets some luck because he’ll be right around the finish if he does. (3) Agassi is the favourite but he’s a very hard horse to trust. (10) Bigboyroy is also nearing a win and the step up to the mile suits him, but he’s another that’s a bit hard to trust. I backed (11) Convicted last start and while he did pull up with a slow recovery, I’m against him here.
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